Pakistan as ‘international migraine’ can only be cured if there’s change in army-controlled state
Sharat Sabharwal
Former High Commissioner to Pakistan
I don’t think US President Donald Trump will be able to cure the world of the ‘international migraine’ for the simple reason that US-Pakistan relations have always been transactional. This does not stop the US from cosying up to Pakistan every now and then but that is primarily for short-term gains with no long-term interest.
What is important to note is that Pakistan is reading from the same old script of reversible measures such as arresting leaders of terrorist organisations and shutting down terror groups. However, all these steps are fickle and have been implemented in the past as well.
Pakistan as the international migraine can only be cured if there is a change in the Pakistani state, which drives terrorism and is partly controlled by the army. If this does not happen, then everything else is window-dressing. Unfortunately, this change in the Pakistani state cannot come in one visit to the US.
Imran Khan’s visit to the US comes when Donald Trump is extremely adamant on exiting Afghanistan. His administration has had multiple rounds of talks with the Taliban, and the Trump administration also acknowledges Pakistan’s help in its mission to exit Afghanistan. Therefore, while global terrorism is a strong concern for the US, its primary focus currently is on Afghanistan.
Also read: In US, Imran Khan & Bajwa want to replace suspicion with personal chemistry. It’s not easy
US has some leverage over Pakistan, which needs both military and civilian aid
Taha Siddiqui
Award-winning Pakistani journalist living in exile in France
President Donald Trump should not be naive enough to believe that Pakistan is willing to change itself, especially when it comes to the policy of militancy, which should concern the US and the world most. Sure, Islamabad is once again carrying out some cosmetic steps but, by and large, the militant infrastructure in the country remains intact with hundreds of seminaries, training camps and various other radicalisation centres.
Moreover, the continued presence of ‘good militants’ who focus on targets outside the Pakistani soil is well documented. In recent years, they have relocated to new areas and everyone on ground knows that. But there is one thing that goes in favour of Washington currently: Pakistan needs the Americans for their aid – both military and civilian, which has been significantly reduced. The Americans, therefore, have some leverage.
But given that the US wants to continue having influence in Pakistan because it believes the country can deliver a solution in Afghanistan and help counter China’s growing footprint in the region – Pakistan, too, knows its value in the eyes of the Americans. It too, therefore, may try to gain maximum leverage out of this.
But let’s hope better sense prevails in Washington policy circles and they assess the on-ground situation through independent means, i.e. through grassroot movements like PTM, the Baloch, and other human rights activist groups. The US should offer aid and assistance to Pakistan only if strict and stringent criteria of conditions are met.
Trump won’t take a tough line on Pakistan. His priority now is to work with, not against, the country
Michael Kugelman
South Asia senior associate, The Wilson Center
The notion that Donald Trump would be the one to tighten the screws on Pakistan has always been a myth. Aside from tough rhetoric, he’s done little to take a harder line, other than to cut security assistance — which has been done in the past. The reality is that Trump, like all US presidents post-9/11, has been needed to go easy on Pakistan because of Washington’s desire for Islamabad’s assistance in Afghanistan.
And that’s never been truer than now, with Trump looking to Imran Khan to step up Pakistani assistance in the current Taliban peace talks. That is the main message Khan will have received from Trump during their White House meeting. Washington wants Islamabad to use its leverage over the insurgents to convince them to agree to a cease-fire and to hold formal negotiations with the Afghan government. The bottom line is Trump wants out of Afghanistan. That’s the core US goal in South Asia right now. And he thinks Pakistan can help get him closer to achieving that goal.
So, despite Washington’s — and New Delhi’s — continued concerns about Islamabad’s lack of robust and irreversible steps against Pakistan-based, Islamabad-aligned terror groups, Donald Trump’s main priority right now is to work with, not against, Pakistan.
Also read: Trump welcomes Imran Khan and makes his peace with Pakistan’s deception
Trump can help India and global community in dealing with Pakistan but that alone won’t be enough
Kanwal Sibal
Executive council member, VIF, and former foreign secretary
I am not too sure Donald Trump alone will be able to cure the ‘global migraine’ called Pakistan. Only when the international community comes together is there a chance to cure this ‘global migraine’.
Pakistan needs to get rid of its terrorist training camps, which are trying to target and destabilise India. Trump can help India and the global community in dealing with Pakistan but that alone will not be enough. The US currently has interests in Afghanistan because Trump does not want his soldiers to be there anymore and is in talks with the Taliban. Once the US leaves Afghanistan, the country will become radicalised, which will result in a substantial increase in extremists coming to India. This could eventually lead to Pakistan becoming a bigger hotbed of terrorism.
Once Pakistan gets ‘Talibanised’, it will be a big problem for India. However, Trump’s policies are helping and raising the bar – whether it is threatening to stop aid or warning Pakistan of targeting it through UN agencies, his policies are beneficial to India.
Despite all this, it is too simplistic to say that the migraine will go away. It is also important to keep in mind that Donald Trump is thinking about the upcoming 2020 US presidential elections as well.
By Revathi Krishnan and Fatima Khan
Unless Chief of Pakistani Army takes part in any discussion,views/decisions of any civilian Govt. carries no meaning.
Bhagaban,Odisha.
Nothing prevents India from offering Pakistan a strip of Saridon tablets, to fix both its own headache and the trouble it is giving others. We should have no illusions about the United States defanging Pakistan for us. For that matter, the Afghan people too will soon find out that their well being is the last thing on America’s mind. Ambassador Khalilzad was completely noncommittal when Afghan civil society groups wanted to take up with him issues of the deepest concern to them. 2. History and geography have conspired to posit India and Pakistan against each other. There are issues which continue to fester, even more in the absence of any formal dialogue. These picnics which people from both sides enjoy in Bangkok are neither here nor there. If this throbbing headache is distracting us from doing more important and useful things with our diplomatic service, start talking.
“You can fool some of the people all the time and you can fool all the people some of the time”. But you can fool all the people all the time if they are Americans….and Pakistan understands this well. Right now Trump is looking for a way to declare Victory and pull out of Afghanistan. He, like other Republican presidents will develop a quick rapport with fluent English speaking, golf playing Pakistani generals who’ll flatter him to the sky, promise the moon and get a good aid package as quid pro quo. Once Americans pull out Pakistan will have all it wanted in Afghanistan prior to 9/11. A compliant regime, strategic depth…. everything! The more things change the more they remain the same! Incidentally Trump is arguably a bigger migraine for the world…..