In a key visit to repair ties with China, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s itinerary includes a stroll through Hubei provincial museum, boat rides and banquets with President Xi Jinping. It is being called an ‘informal meeting’ but the visit is being keenly watched because it comes after the bilateral chill that followed the 73-day standoff over Doklam, and Beijing’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region.
ThePrint asks: Boat rides and lake walks – the beginning of a new Modi-Xi chapter or mere optics?
If the Wuhan meeting eliminates the possibility of another Doklam, it is a success
Kanwal Sibal
Dean, Centre for International Relations and Diplomacy, VIF, and former foreign secretary
The Modi-Xi meeting in Wuhan has come as a surprise because Modi was going to China in June in any case for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. Clearly, both sides have felt that an informal meeting beforehand would be useful in developing some understanding on bilateral and international issues so that a consensus is easier at the SCO summit on issues such as terrorism, climate change, energy, connectivity, anti-globalisation trends, trade wars in the offing, WTO’s centrality for regulating international trade, sanctions as a weapon, the use of force without UNSC approval, the Iran nuclear deal, the North Korean issue, the regional security architecture in Asia and so on.
On some, India’s views differ from those of China and Russia, be it state sponsorship of terrorism, or connectivity that violates sovereignty and is intended for geopolitical expansion. The Indo-Pacific concept is evidently a counter to China’s disruptive maritime ambitions. On other issues, there is shared thinking, but India has to work for a balanced outcome and avoid any overt targeting of the US, even though the US under Trump is most responsible for the mounting international concerns about global trends.
Bilateral issues will no doubt be discussed at Wuhan as delegation level talks will also take place. Here, no breakthrough should be expected. From India’s point of view, if the Wuhan meeting eliminates the possibility of another China-provoked incident on the border in Doklam’s wake, it would be a substantial gain as a conflict with China should be avoided as far as possible.
One should neither overestimate, nor underestimate the importance of this Modi-Xi meeting
C.V. Ranganathan
Former ambassador to China
The meeting between Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping is certainly not about optics. You cannot expect that the leaders of countries like India and China are meeting merely for superficial reasons.
The purpose of keeping the meeting informal was perhaps to give both leaders the space to have a free-flowing conversation about their domestic disputes etc.
The meeting is crucial in both the bilateral and the international context. It will also define how both the leaders are likely to approach their problems and look for solutions. The spokesperson has made it very clear that no big agreements will be the outcome of this meeting. But the meeting, I believe, will provide the direction for differences to be settled between the two countries through proper dialogue.
Even guidance on how to approach the differences between the two countries will be a great takeaway from the meeting. It is also significant because unlike the SCO summit where neither Modi nor Xi will have enough time to interact, this meeting provides them time discuss and deliberate on their issues without too much pomp and glory.
Boat rides and lake walks around scenic Wuhan do not reduce the gravity of the meeting. It signals that both leaders are intent on maintaining high-level contact and are committed to their bilateral relationship.
Every relationship needs reassurance; this meeting provides an opportunity for that. However, one should neither overestimate, nor underestimate the importance of such a meeting.
The Modi-Xi meeting is informal, we shouldn’t have very high expectations from it
Lt. Gen. (Retd) S.L. Narasimhan
Distinguished Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, expert on China
First, such kind of interactions is good for bilateral relations. When leaders of such standing meet, there are bound to be some positive results at the end of the meeting.
Second, considering the fact that the meeting is informal, we shouldn’t have very high expectations from it. They may be looking at larger and more long-term issues. Of course, issues will be discussed, but the most important ones are likely to remain confidential.
Third, due to this informal meeting, peace and tranquillity along the line of actual control may improve. Trade related issues and collaborations on international forums may be discussed. But this is all speculation since the agenda remains confidential. No one can say for certain.
We shouldn’t think that the focus of the meeting is just to resolve the Doklam issue. It may or may not come up. Modi and Xi are not likely to speak about specific issues, they are likely to address problems on a macro level.
Such meetings don’t happen overnight, it must have been in the works for a while. They must have decided which date suits both the leaders.
Basically, there will be some positive moments in this meeting. Perhaps, we won’t learn of them but I’m sure that this is a move in the right direction. There are also talks about not having a joint communique at the end of this meeting. We will have to wait and see what happens.
It is a very significant outreach to “reset” the ties and address the concerns that emerged after Doklam
Alka Acharya
Professor, School of International Studies, JNU
There are three notable aspects in the informal meeting between Narendra Modi-Xi Jinping that is currently underway.
First, it has been clarified that it is at Modi’s insistence that this meeting is taking place and Xi Jinping has responded positively making the time to travel out of Beijing. Moreover, it will take place over two days making it obvious that the leaders of both the countries believe that there is a need to clear the air before the SCO meeting.
It is, therefore, a very significant outreach which will seek to ‘reset’ the ties and address the concerns that had emerged after Doklam. This ‘reset’ is essential if the two countries have to collaborate and coordinate their stand on a host of issues that will inevitably emerge at the SCO Summit. It is also an attempt to reach a prior understanding on certain matters that will be discussed later.
Second, this is not a meeting about specific issues or minor ones. It is more about how India and China relate to each other; what is their strategic perception of each other, how would they accommodate each other’s sensitivities and how would they tackle the mistrust of each other which has led to the tensions, confrontations over the past few years. They are both rising powers, expanding their spheres of engagement and activity in the neighbouring regions and also internationally. Some ground rules thus are in order – it would be a mistake to expect a complete accord on issues such as terrorism and the BRI.
Third, considering the challenges that are emerging from the US with regard to the global economy, it is absolutely imperative for both India and China to work closely with each other. The pressures from the trade war unleashed by President Trump will affect both the countries and can only be handled through cooperation between the two.
Compiled by Deeksha Bhardwaj, journalist at ThePrint.
Illustration by Siddhant Gupta.