A day before assembly election results in five states are announced, a grand opposition meeting, called by TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu, is being attended by top political leaders in Delhi. AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal, who is usually absent at such meets, is likely to attend this one while BSP supremo Mayawati is reportedly giving it a miss.
ThePrint asks: State polls renew Congress efforts at mahagatbandhan or Mayawati absence a reality check?
Congress’ success can alienate Mayawati & push her towards BJP-NDA stable
Rasheed Kidwai
Visiting Fellow, Observer Research Foundation
The outcome of 11 December state polls will have a tremendous bearing on Chandrababu-Congress’ attempts to build a state-wise mahagathbandhan against Narendra Modi-led NDA for May 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
A good showing in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, in addition to Rajasthan, will provide the Congress a pole position within the mahagathbandhan. In such a scenario, Mayawati-led BSP will be forced to play a second fiddle to Rahul Gandhi, something the Dalit icon is resisting strongly. The Congress’ success has a possibility of further alienating BSP and Mayawati from the mahagathbandhan and pushing them towards an anxious BJP-NDA stable.
A poor showing by the Congress, on the other hand, will bring the focus back on Mayawati in mahagathbandhan politics. Desperate players like Chandrababu Naidu and Akhilesh Yadav will force Rahul’s hand in reaching out to Mayawati. For the BSP supremo, it is important she plays a kingmaker in Chhattisgarh or Madhya Pradesh.
A successful mahagathbandhan against Modi requires a right equilibrium between a resurgent Congress (where it is in direct contest against the BJP) and good showing by non-NDA regional satraps in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.
But, so far, ambitious anti-Modi players have been unable to balance chemistry with arithmetic.
Even if Congress wins fewer states, it will still be the pole that attracts other parties
Rajeev Gowda
MP, Congress
The Congress has led from the front in the five states where election results are due 11 December. Exit polls suggest that the Congress will deliver a decisive blow to the Bharatiya Janata Party in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and to the Telangana Rashtra Samithi in Telangana. If that happens, every party facing the onslaught of the BJP will turn to the Congress to put together a formidable mahaghatbandhan for the 2019 general election.
Even if the Congress were to win fewer states, it would still be the magnetic pole that attracts other opposition parties. The Congress will therefore redouble its efforts to bring secular parties together to provide India with a credible alternative to the BJP’s divisiveness and incompetent governance.
If Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party helped the BJP pull through by splitting the opposition vote, then voters opposed to the BJP will not waste their vote and will vote strategically for the mahagathbandhan in 2019. In the all-important Uttar Pradesh, indications are that Lok Sabha and assembly election results have provided the BSP the reality check and it will be a key part of the opposition alliance. In 2019, the TINA factor for the opposition parties is that there is no alternative to a Congress-anchored mahagathbandhan.
There is ample reason to suspect that Mayawati will go solo in 2019 too
Sangit Kumar Ragi
Professor, Delhi University
The proposed mahagathbandhan of the opposition parties is a result of their realisation that they cannot face the BJP separately in 2019. Their hands are tied together because of their existential question rather than any principled stand on governance and democratic values.
The country is also aware of the fact that coalition emerging from such disjointed parties result in corruption and political anarchy wherein every party fights for maximizing the political booty in its favour. More importantly, there is no leader of this gathbandhan who has the moral stature to lead the coalition. Everybody is competing for leadership, resulting in conflict.
If the Congress wins three state elections Tuesday it will claim for the position of first among equals, but it is less likely to be accepted by tall regional satraps. If the Left and the Trinamool share the umbrella in West Bengal, and Congress and the Left come together in Kerala, it will completely invert the political paradigm in these two states. This issue has still not been negotiated. Further, Mayawati has indicated that she would prefer to go all alone, if the political deal does not suit her. She did it in the case of assembly elections in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. There is ample reason to suspect that she may walk the same path even in the parliamentary elections.
Mayawati is key to 2019 and both camps will like to have her
Ashutosh
Political analyst
State poll results will have a lasting impact on 2019 parliamentary elections. If the Congress manages to snatch even two out of three Hindi-belt states, as is being predicted by the exit polls, it will bust the myth that the Congress is no match to the BJP and that Rahul Gandhi stands nowhere close to Narendra Modi.
It will also send a clear signal that Modi is not invincible. Since Gujarat elections, Rahul Gandhi has put up a strong challenge, and even partially succeeded in Gujarat and Karnataka. But he needs a decisive victory to break the myth of Modi and establish himself as a serious contender for 2019.
It is in this context that the opposition unity assumes significance. The coming together of national leaders at the swearing-in ceremony of H.D. Kumaraswamy was the first sign that the opposition was optimistic.
Since then, Chandrababu Naidu has been meeting leaders, but mahagathbandhan is yet to take a final shape. The Congress’ win in these elections will galvanise the opposition camp. Further, the Congress will be taken more seriously by other parties.
However, Mayawati’s dilly-dally is a serious chink in the opposition armour, and threatens to limit its appeal. The 2019 battle will be decided by Uttar Pradesh, which has 80 seats. The UP bypoll results have shown that if Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav come together, the BJP loses seats.
That’s why Mayawati is key to 2019 and both camps will like to have her. But knowing her, it hard to predicted which way she will swim.
Mayawati’s antics can damage Congress, but it would lead to extinction of her politics
Apoorvanand
Hindi professor, Delhi University
A grand alliance against the BJP should not be seen as only a need for survival for the Congress party. It is more important for the existence of the regional and smaller parties, which emerged and flourished in the Congress era.
The antics of Mayawati can damage the Congress but would ultimately lead to the extinction of her politics. Now, Nitish Kumar realises that his independence is lost and other smaller partners of the BJP discover that the BJP is eating into their base. All these parties need to understand that for normal competitive parliamentary politics to survive, they will have to strengthen their alliance with the Congress party.
It is not for nothing that the BJP wants the end of the Congress party – because with its demise, the idea of fluid democratic politics would go. The BJP is not a normal political party. It is sustained by the multi-layered network of the RSS and no single party has a response to it.
Moreover, the ideological drive of the BJP is also missing in the politics of the smaller parties. Apart from the ideology, the BJP can go to any extent and use any means to remain in power. It is therefore in their interest that they build and strengthen an alliance with the Congress party at the centre.
For Mayawati, a strong Congress won’t benefit the BSP
Devashish Jarariya
Congress spokesperson, former BSP member, Dalit activist
The Congress is heavily banking on these assembly elections. If it manages to get at least two of the three big states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, it would be a shot in the arm for the grand old party.
Earlier experiences with alliance politics suggest that endurable alliance is only possible with a strong core. Therefore, if the Congress manages to cross the 150-mark in the general election next year, any alliance led by it will be stable. The rider here is a good show in Uttar Pradesh, without which any alliance talk is a pipe dream.
These elections are a litmus test for opposition unity. Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims are the traditional voters of the Congress. Mayawati is trying to woo Dalits and Muslims. For her, a strong Congress won’t benefit the BSP and that’s why she wants the former to remain weak, especially in Uttar Pradesh. Her out-of-share demand for seats in Madhya Pradesh made any talks on alliance with the Congress virtually impossible. Her demand will be shriller in Uttar Pradesh.
For now, the ball is in Mayawati’s court. But, if the Congress can come up trumps in these assembly elections, Mayawati will be forced to rethink her strategy. In Chandrababu Naidu’s words, one or two parties may have “differences of opinion” but “it is for people to sink their differences… democracy is important”. But, will behenji understand this?
Don’t read too much into Mayawati staying away from the meet
Shivam Vij
Contributing editor, ThePrint
The Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party is a direct competitor of the Indian National Congress. Both seek Dalit votes. Dalits vote more for the Congress than the BJP. The BSP and the Congress, therefore, are not natural allies.
The results tomorrow may well show us that the Congress doesn’t need the BSP. Increasingly, state elections have seen the space for smaller parties shrink. There are two sides, and voters prefer to not be confused by sideshows.
Meanwhile, Mayawati would similarly like the Congress to be a sideshow in Uttar Pradesh. Instead of being part of a national mahagathbandhan, her priority is to fight with strength in UP. She doesn’t need to be a part of the national grand alliance. If she can stick with the Samajwadi Party in UP, she’ll be doing more for the national opposition than all the leaders meeting today.
A mahagathbandhan can only be a state by state story. Two parties may be at loggerheads in one state and could still be in some sort of a national coalition. Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu has already shown the way for such a formula. He is not joining the Congress-led UPA and is forming an anti-Modi front outside the UPA, one that would lean towards the Congress and the UPA. Mayawati is in a similar position, and too much should not be read into her staying away from the meeting.
By Fatima Khan, journalist at ThePrint. You can follow her on twitter @khanthefatima.
Nothing has happened yet. RESULTS are all that matter. IF the poll results today are a SURE and DEFINITE pointer, NOT a mere ‘straw in the wind’, Mayawati will be as fast as Kejriwal to switch. In politics,the easiest thing to do is to climb the ‘Bandwagon’. The most difficult thing of course, is to identify it