US President Donald Trump tweeted an angry warning to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani that it will “suffer consequences the likes of which few throughout history have ever suffered.” Trump was responding to Rouhani’s remark to his diplomats that Americans must understand that “a war with Iran is the mother of all wars”.
Earlier this year, US had pulled out of the landmark nuclear deal that former US President Barack Obama had signed with Iran.
ThePrint asks: Does Trump’s tweet signal Obama-style engagement hasn’t worked with Iran or just warmongering?
US has gone rogue and is no longer a reliable player in global affairs
Talmiz Ahmad
Former diplomat
Even in the election campaign Donald Trump indicated a visceral hostility for Iran and specifically for the nuclear agreement. Since then, the US has withdrawn from the pact. Trump has continued to bad mouth Iran, even accusing it of supporting terror and being a source of disruption. He has announced very clearly that he is working towards a regime change.
No country in the world would tolerate such repeated abuse. Rouhani has simply stated that any attack would be extremely destructive, and not a cakewalk for the US.
Personally, I believe this is only a war of words. I don’t think it will lead to a conflict. When it comes to security, the way forward is engagement. That is the most important aspect of diplomacy. Unfortunately, it is not being utilised by Trump.
The thing about Trump is that he is a disruptive force in international affairs. I think the US has gone rogue and is no longer a reliable player in global affairs. Disruption is useful in the area of technology, but it is the last thing one needs in foreign affairs. Security, stability and order are what we espouse.
Trump is exact opposite of that. He is unpredictable. In the case of North Korea, he began by making an extreme remark, and then went on to engage in dialogue. With Europe, he has particularly attacked and abused the German Chancellor.
Rouhani is a stable and sensible leader, like the rest of the top Iranian leadership. They do not make loose remarks. Rouhani takes a balanced approach.
Trump attempted to meet the Iranian president eight times. But, when you threaten a country on a daily basis and withdraw from an agreement it has upheld, it won’t exactly be ecstatic to engage with you.
Trump should have continued the affiliation, and addressed the concerns through balanced engagement and moderate leadership.
Trump’s style may be aggressive talk, but it has elements of posturing
Arun Singh
Former ambassador to the US
The US and Iran have been deeply suspicious of each other since 1979 when the US Embassy in Tehran was seized and its personnel held hostage. After trying for a long time, Obama finally managed to make inroads into this divided relationship through the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. We have to also remember that, ideologically, the Iranian government is strongly anti-West.
Obama’s approach did produce some results. At the very outset, he wrote to Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, inviting him to forge a different relationship. The JCPOA hoped to address Iran’s nuclear issues, and it was claimed that Iran’s breakout capacity had been increased to a year or more. Europe, Russia, and China supported it.
The US has now decided to walk out of the deal because of domestic political considerations. Trump has consistently tried to undermine Obama’s legacy and show that he is stronger than the previous presidents. A quick glance at all the talk with North Korea, however, throws doubt on his claim, at least so far. There have only been talks and some reduction in tension but no concrete agreement on the nuclear issue, whereas with Iran there was one.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s statement is drawing from the context that Iran now has influence in Syria, along with Russia. It also has the capability to cause disruptions in the Gulf. Iranian influence in Iraq is also very strong, and it is capable of complicating US efforts in Afghanistan.
Trump’s style, as revealed in the context of North Korea, Iran and even US allies such as Germany, Canada and Australia, has been marked by aggressive talk. But, it also has elements of posturing.
Trump thinks Iran likely to approach him under pressure, but it probably won’t happen
Girijesh Pant
Former professor, JNU
US president Donald Trump has never said that he will restrain his arm. His foreign policy and his approach have always been aggressive. Even with North Korea, we saw an example of this. He did remind them he could obliterate their country by pressing a button.
Trump came to power with the election promise of relegating errant states to their place in the world order. What’s interesting is that apart from the American suspicion, there have been a lot of sporadic protests over the last four-five months that have fuelled regional suspicion.
There are people who are unhappy with the Rouhani regime. They do feel as if they aren’t benefitting from one of the largest producers of oil. But to assume that the current resentment can spur a regime change is misplaced according to me.
Trump probably believes that it is a possibility. He is attempting to further that sentiment and escalate the crisis. This isn’t the first time that the state of Iran has been uncertain. Even after the Iraq war, not much changed.
It is unlikely that the resentment can be channelled. Hypothetically, let’s say the Rouhani regime does change, the power structures in Iran won’t. Incidentally, he also thinks that Iran is likely to approach him under pressure. It probably won’t happen.
However, one shouldn’t be surprised with Trump’s approach. It is very typical. We also have to remember Iran’s influence in the area isn’t diminishing. It is rather likely to grow as the Syrian conflict moves to a resolution with Russian support. It isn’t as if Obama’s approach wasn’t working, but it’s the perception of the deal with Iran that has influenced Trump’s decisions.
Trump is like a 200-pound gorilla intent on destroying everything in the room
Jyoti Malhotra
Editor, National & Strategic Affairs, ThePrint
US President Donald Trump’s tweet this morning, in all caps, threatening to rain fire and fury on Iran, sounds like the angry diatribe of a man unable to distinguish between friend and enemy.
Trump was responding to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s comment that Americans “must understand that war with Iran is the mother of all wars…” But if Trump had stopped to listen for a few more seconds, he would have heard Rouhani complete that sentence: “…and peace with Iran is the mother of all peace”.
Trump is like a 200-pound gorilla intent on destroying everything in the room because he wants to. Iran and Israel have a perennial enmity and Trump has taken it upon himself to declare himself Bibi Netanyahu’s best friend. He has decided to take umbrage with Iran today like he did with North Korea last year – except this year, Kim Jong-un is the flavour of the season. Israel, meanwhile, isn’t quite so interested in North Korea.
Rouhani shot back by calmly telling Trump not to threaten Iran, but of course, it’s not that simple. If Trump insists on disrupting the Persian Gulf, the region, including India, better be ready for another prolonged bout of instability, where oil prices could go through the roof. India also might have to kiss its ambitions in the Chabahar port goodbye.
Better to assuage the gorilla because he has access to a nuclear button and look for other friends. Rouhani’s swing through Europe is exactly aimed at that. None of this may work, of course.
One should hope that Trump finds a new enemy tomorrow. Iran will be a forgotten part of yesterday’s tantrum.
Compiled by Deeksha Bhardwaj, journalist at ThePrint.