Economic recovery from pandemic has been faster than expected, but with Budget set to be presented next month, these factors need to be taken into account.
Finance ministry’s monthly economic review for December says sustained improvement in high frequency indicators raises hopes for second half of FY 2020-21.
India’s GDP is projected to contract in FY21. But as restrictions ease, supply side disruptions are addressed and demand picks up, the economy is expected to rebound.
India’s goal of an ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ and a $5 trillion economy isn’t achievable by leaving behind a flexible and multi-purpose revolutionary drone technology.
Speaking at Global Technology Summit 2020 organised by Carnegie India, top strategic affairs expert Tellis said New Delhi needs to open up its economy even more clearly to friends.
Peter Manuel's ‘Cassette Culture’ showed the booming Bhakti music during the '80s and '90s when Anoop Jalota, Gulshan Kumar achieved success by singing the sanitised Bhajans.
Economists say there are weaknesses in India’s GDP data. But statisticians claim the accusations are based on flawed understanding, saying while GDP has problems, the economists are looking in the wrong places.
Writer miss the Ladakh standoff factor. It will not resolve any time soon, bleeding India resources profusely, esp arm racing will divert much budget spending.
China FDI and industrial activities in India will drop to bottom under Godi banned policy.
1) Covid
Nobody know what’s going to happen if new variant strains will work against India herd immunity. Virologists have found some recovered with antibody has reinfection again, weakening body immune system each time.
I highly suspect India infections already cross high ratio of herd immunity when its infection curve started to show bell curve dropping since Oct2020. By Sep2020, sampling test shown 33% Delhi population has COVID antibody, 85% in Pune.
Vaccines will take years to roll out in India. With only 3~6mths protection, it will be impossible for India to repeatedly vaccinate 70~90% 1.4Bils Indians.
2) Consumption
With India economy plunge, export & remittance hit by global economy dipping, 44yrs highest jobless rate at 37%, COVID, farmer protest, etc, expenditure income will fall, so consumption drop, retail & business will employ less…in a vicious cycle.
3) Investment
Global FDI will drop. As domestic consumption drop, domestic investment will also shrink. Another vicious cycle.
4) Deficit
India debt to GDP ratio already hit unsustainable 90%. At 8% interest, most revenue collected will goes to paying interest. More borrowing is required to pay off interest while sustain budget.
With fast shrinking tax revenue, high expenditure, deficit will be widening. There are little fiscal tool to stimulate economy and consumption.
5) Inflation
This is double sided sword Godi has been utilizing for fake GDP growth, fuel by high inflation. In 2019, GDP growth 4.2% fueled by 6% inflation. In 2020 its -7% ~ 30% shrinkage fueled by 8% inflation and $500Bils borrowing.
In 2021, there will be no more possibility for another huge COVID $500Bils stimulation. High Inflation with rupees depreciation will bite the household disposal income hard, further damping consumption.
As a whole, 2021 will be tough year for India who has no huge reserve to stimulate like China, while facing uncontrollable COVID outbreak. There is likelihood another shrinking of GDP compare to 2019 until 2022. If more confrontation break out with China, then India economy will spiral downward into crisis.
About a month back, in one of your videos, you had said that at present inflation is lesser problem and growth is important. But, now you have referred to RBI’s ability to fight inflation. What is the reason for this change of view?
Writer miss the Ladakh standoff factor. It will not resolve any time soon, bleeding India resources profusely, esp arm racing will divert much budget spending.
China FDI and industrial activities in India will drop to bottom under Godi banned policy.
1) Covid
Nobody know what’s going to happen if new variant strains will work against India herd immunity. Virologists have found some recovered with antibody has reinfection again, weakening body immune system each time.
I highly suspect India infections already cross high ratio of herd immunity when its infection curve started to show bell curve dropping since Oct2020. By Sep2020, sampling test shown 33% Delhi population has COVID antibody, 85% in Pune.
Vaccines will take years to roll out in India. With only 3~6mths protection, it will be impossible for India to repeatedly vaccinate 70~90% 1.4Bils Indians.
2) Consumption
With India economy plunge, export & remittance hit by global economy dipping, 44yrs highest jobless rate at 37%, COVID, farmer protest, etc, expenditure income will fall, so consumption drop, retail & business will employ less…in a vicious cycle.
3) Investment
Global FDI will drop. As domestic consumption drop, domestic investment will also shrink. Another vicious cycle.
4) Deficit
India debt to GDP ratio already hit unsustainable 90%. At 8% interest, most revenue collected will goes to paying interest. More borrowing is required to pay off interest while sustain budget.
With fast shrinking tax revenue, high expenditure, deficit will be widening. There are little fiscal tool to stimulate economy and consumption.
5) Inflation
This is double sided sword Godi has been utilizing for fake GDP growth, fuel by high inflation. In 2019, GDP growth 4.2% fueled by 6% inflation. In 2020 its -7% ~ 30% shrinkage fueled by 8% inflation and $500Bils borrowing.
In 2021, there will be no more possibility for another huge COVID $500Bils stimulation. High Inflation with rupees depreciation will bite the household disposal income hard, further damping consumption.
As a whole, 2021 will be tough year for India who has no huge reserve to stimulate like China, while facing uncontrollable COVID outbreak. There is likelihood another shrinking of GDP compare to 2019 until 2022. If more confrontation break out with China, then India economy will spiral downward into crisis.
About a month back, in one of your videos, you had said that at present inflation is lesser problem and growth is important. But, now you have referred to RBI’s ability to fight inflation. What is the reason for this change of view?
Views r so simplistic as if explainimg a 6 yr old she assumes on loss in employment ,all factors of production running at 90% plus,good investment