The SIPRI report comes as a shot in the arm for HAL, which lost out in the Rafale deal after Dassault Aviation chose Reliance Defence as its offset partner.
Nirmala Sitharaman had said recently that the UPA-era deal for 126 Rafales had fallen through because HAL did not have the capability to make the jets.
If they were, the Great Indian Bureaucrat would be the Marshal of the Air Force. Bofors mummified our defence acquisitions, Rafale could entomb it now.
Peter Manuel's ‘Cassette Culture’ showed the booming Bhakti music during the '80s and '90s when Anoop Jalota, Gulshan Kumar achieved success by singing the sanitised Bhajans.
Economists say there are weaknesses in India’s GDP data. But statisticians claim the accusations are based on flawed understanding, saying while GDP has problems, the economists are looking in the wrong places.
Half of the Rafale contract is an offset to build a private sector aerospace industry+train personnel.
Now, be aware that
1. A Tejas assembly line makes 8 units/year
2. A Rafale assembly line makes 18 units/year, but can be extended to 26
42 squadrons = 14 of 18x Su-30, 14 of 18x Rafale-C/B, 3 of Rafale-M for INAF, 14 of 21x Tejas. Add 1 spare aircraft per sqr for attrition.
Rafale = 266+57. As a 2nd batch of 36 is in talks = 251
Tejas = 308, 16 already delivered, 2nd assembly line is on, 24 additiona Mk1 on order = 268
It takes 2 years for an assembly line to start production and 2 more years to start deliveries.
If decisions for massive orders are taken NOW, deliveries can start end 2023.
BUT the right number of assembly lines has to be decided too!!!!
At a rate of 18 units a year, it takes 7 years to have 2 assembly lines building 251 Rafales while 4 Tejas assembly lines would take 8 years and 6 months for 268 Tejas, in fact, since 2 are already online, if decisions are taken NOW, being at 42 squadrons by 2030 is feasible!
What I’d recommand : Look at this ; https://tinyurl.com/y4p9cfhv https://tinyurl.com/yyn34tab https://tinyurl.com/y6fe8h36
=> Having hardpoints for 5 Meteors, and also for 2, to be placed under the outer-wing
This would allow to carry 36 Meteors and 2 MICA-NG/IR at once…
This means 648 meteors and 36 MICA for a single Rafale squadron (31 for Rafale-M)…. Remember that if dodged, Meteor can be re-locked on target, MICA too.
In a SINGLE FLIGHT, a Rafale squadron can take out all jet-fighters in PAF; 6 squadrons can deal with PLAAF the same way!
Better hardcore negotiate with MBDA : Meteor is a bit expensive, especially if you buy 4536 units, at the same time, they’d better please their #1 client as they’re far from having as much cumulated orders…
The 2 conformal tanks allow a 2,450km CAP patrol without refuelling. Note there is also a 3000L drop tank. The 2 conformals + the 3000L would allow to deliver 4 SCALP-EG to Beijing (take off with half internal fuel and complete from the tanker once airborne, so Rafale can carry up to 12t!)…. If the Tse-Tse design is used, just don’t tell us if you fit a 1.7 megatons warhead in a SCALP (1961 W59 was 1 megaton and weighted 250kg), you know, NPT… (I suppose that Israel has recuperated the W59 design from UK)
Tejas Mk1 can be EASILY IMPROVED
1. India has already stored 100 GE F414. F414 is just a more powerful F404 and a drop-in! Fit them on Mk1!
2. It lacks fuel? F*cking prepare conformal tanks!
3. Thales has already prepared a modified RBE2/AESA for Tejas, it’s aready DRDO-validated and flight tested! Put it in the nose!
4. Thales has prepared a standalone version of SPECTRA’s active stealth 4 Tejas
=> Fit all this onboard = WOW!
The F414s can be used, maybe keeping some as spares, let”s say build 4 squadrons of 21+1 and keep a dozen F414 as spares?
Hardpoints have enough payload for 17 Meteor and 2 MICA-NG/IR : http://i.imgur.com/rcxQxGI.jpg
Note that the integration can be a bit expensive, but….
Dassault-recommanded mods for Tejas (all blueprints ready since summer 2017!) I’d HIGHLY recommand to have this version once F414 are depleted.
– Same baked-in radar absorbent materials as Rafale
– Rafale’s active stealth [DRDO-validated]
– 98kN version of Rafale”s engine (as powerful as Mirage-2000-9, the Emirati on steroids version with 6.8t payload or as GE F414). Advantages : IR stealth, much smaller than F414 => 1.1m^3 less => room for fuel, 200kg lighter. Note : M88 is the only engine allowing 5-6 missions per 24h in normal use and no less than 1 week of intensive use with 10-11 missions per 24h (wasn’t tested further : after 1 week operations, Rafale-M faced a problem : lack of targets : Gaddafi’s army was totally f*cked up) [DRDO-validated]
– As much internal fuel as Mirage-2000
– Rafale’s AESA radar : much more powerful than Elta EL/M2052, serious ECM features [DRDO-validated]
– Reinforced airframe to take 11G
– 500kg lighter than Tejas Mk1 => 1,800kg lighter than Mirage-2000-9 with the same thrust => Payload and speed affected… And since M-2000-9 has 6.8t payload and is Mach2+ capable…
– Safran has created a joint venture with HAL to make the 98kN M88/K9+ (Kaveri 9+) in India
– BRS (balistic recovery system) parachute.
AS YOU CAN SEE BY YOURSELF, the full replacement of old IAF aircraft is feasible by the time Mrage-2000, MiG-29 and Jaguar won’t be able to serve any more….
Other things I’d recommand : give up classic airbases with Rafale : they take off in 400m and land in 450m.
A 600m portion of road able to cope with a 30t truck is enough. Take a look at Swede or Swiss hidden road-bases.
In case of war, classic airbases will receive a rain of ballistic+cruise missiles and swarms of drones.
Other weapons I’d recommand :
– MBDA Apache anti-runways stealth cruise missile. A Rafale may carry 5 at once : enough to demolish a 2,400m airbase runway
– CBU-105 : one kills 40 tanks (!)
– Modified K-LOGIR guidance kit for Hydra-70 guided rockets. Modified for more contrast : the basic K-LOGIR’s EO/IRST is deliberately ultra cheap to go only after ships, e.g. Kim ‘Rocketman” Jong Un’s swarms of speed boats, can be fit with better sensor. Advantage : fire’n’forget : just point the targetting laser once, and launch. Pods of 19. Each rocket compares with a TOW and ranges 10-15km from a fixed wing aircraft
– Zuni-LG : laser-guided Zuni rocket by MBDA. I’d recommand to create pods for 8-9 of these. 10km+ range. Third of a Hellfire’s price, twice the warhead and the speed.
Indian reliance on defense imports denotes Indian lack in military industrial complex. Though successive governments recites the mantra of elf-reliance and indigenisation, these objectives remain elusive. The challenges to Indian defense industry is from the corrupt bureaucrats to that of lack of technical expertise. The dearth of expertise often results in a parochial view of defence. Unless India overcomes these challenges, India will continue to falter on its mission to modernise its defence sector,
Rafale deal the largest defence scam that the country has seen. The Rs. 58,000-crore Rafale fighter jet deal has been at the centre of a raging political row with the Congress accusing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government of wrongdoing. It left the Indian Air Force high and dry, and by securing offset contracts for Anil Ambani’s new company that has no experience in building fighter aircraft, it also puts our national security at risk.
India will have less than half the fighter strength sanctioned two deacdes ago when Pakistan and China were weak by 2042! What should have been an Indian Air Force is sitting in overseas Bank Lockers of Politicians and Bureaucrats. What do you expect?
That’s not correct. How its possible for world’s largest arms importer to have a crippling IAF? This news is just to convinces masses to pour more money in defense expenditures. Its there to manage public perceptions in favor of investing in defense.
If two squadrons now cost about 60,000 crores, 42 will cost over twelve trillion. The Navy’s Budget is also very capital intensive. MoD will have to sit with the finance ministry and project its requirements far into the future, aligned with likely scenarios for India’s economic growth and the amounts that can realistically be earmarked for defence. 2.As a lay person one cannot judge how realistic this expectation of a two front war is. Preparing for it is becoming unaffordable.
No! In fact, the 2 squadrons don’t cost 60,000 crores at all… The flyaway cost is about the 3rd of it!
Half is an offset to build Dassault+Thales+Safran factories, have about 200 subcontractors settled, al this into JV with Indian companies, and the training of thousands of personnels.
One 6th of the contract is €710M in weapons, the integration of Indian, Russian and Israeli weapons, the Elbit HMD too, custom pylons for Russian weapons, 2 simulators, guarantee for 75% availability, training of pilots, maintenance facilities, MILCON, etc etc.
Note that the integration of Meteor on Typhoon costed $175M (Germany paid alone). Don’t hope any integration for cheaper than $100M from Saab or Boeing… Dassault is said having done a never seen price.
Let’s suppose you buy a total of 266 Rafale-C/B for IAF (14 squadrons and 14 spare aircraft), the flyaway cost would be around $19.5BN thus around 130,000 crore. I’m NOT counting weapons purchases, MILCON, spares, fuel
If Tejas is made the way Dassault recommands, it would cost about $45-46M/unit, flyaway cost.
14 squadrons of 21+1 spare = 308 units = $13.86BN => 92,400 crores
Add 57 Rafale-M for INAF : $4.85BN = 32,300 crores
About $38BN to be spent over 10 years.
This includes the Rafales already ordered, and I do as if all Tejas received the mods (you can read about in my other post on this page).
Now, it’s a bit the fault of all governments who neglected IAF since the Su-30 orders
For AMCA, consider it to start replacing Su-30 in the mid 30’s…
Unless IAF considers that since the French companies have became bi-national, joining the Dassault-Airbus 6th gen project makes sense, and considering 2 characteristics Dassault CEO spoke about at last Paris Air Show, these features would allow to make it much more than an aircraft (nothing official, but these are characteristics from e.g a space-shuttle : skin taking up to 3,650°C and reactance control system!)
Half of the Rafale contract is an offset to build a private sector aerospace industry+train personnel.
Now, be aware that
1. A Tejas assembly line makes 8 units/year
2. A Rafale assembly line makes 18 units/year, but can be extended to 26
42 squadrons = 14 of 18x Su-30, 14 of 18x Rafale-C/B, 3 of Rafale-M for INAF, 14 of 21x Tejas. Add 1 spare aircraft per sqr for attrition.
Rafale = 266+57. As a 2nd batch of 36 is in talks = 251
Tejas = 308, 16 already delivered, 2nd assembly line is on, 24 additiona Mk1 on order = 268
It takes 2 years for an assembly line to start production and 2 more years to start deliveries.
If decisions for massive orders are taken NOW, deliveries can start end 2023.
BUT the right number of assembly lines has to be decided too!!!!
At a rate of 18 units a year, it takes 7 years to have 2 assembly lines building 251 Rafales while 4 Tejas assembly lines would take 8 years and 6 months for 268 Tejas, in fact, since 2 are already online, if decisions are taken NOW, being at 42 squadrons by 2030 is feasible!
What I’d recommand : Look at this ;
https://tinyurl.com/y4p9cfhv
https://tinyurl.com/yyn34tab
https://tinyurl.com/y6fe8h36
=> Having hardpoints for 5 Meteors, and also for 2, to be placed under the outer-wing
This would allow to carry 36 Meteors and 2 MICA-NG/IR at once…
This means 648 meteors and 36 MICA for a single Rafale squadron (31 for Rafale-M)…. Remember that if dodged, Meteor can be re-locked on target, MICA too.
In a SINGLE FLIGHT, a Rafale squadron can take out all jet-fighters in PAF; 6 squadrons can deal with PLAAF the same way!
Better hardcore negotiate with MBDA : Meteor is a bit expensive, especially if you buy 4536 units, at the same time, they’d better please their #1 client as they’re far from having as much cumulated orders…
The 2 conformal tanks allow a 2,450km CAP patrol without refuelling. Note there is also a 3000L drop tank. The 2 conformals + the 3000L would allow to deliver 4 SCALP-EG to Beijing (take off with half internal fuel and complete from the tanker once airborne, so Rafale can carry up to 12t!)…. If the Tse-Tse design is used, just don’t tell us if you fit a 1.7 megatons warhead in a SCALP (1961 W59 was 1 megaton and weighted 250kg), you know, NPT… (I suppose that Israel has recuperated the W59 design from UK)
Tejas Mk1 can be EASILY IMPROVED
1. India has already stored 100 GE F414. F414 is just a more powerful F404 and a drop-in! Fit them on Mk1!
2. It lacks fuel? F*cking prepare conformal tanks!
3. Thales has already prepared a modified RBE2/AESA for Tejas, it’s aready DRDO-validated and flight tested! Put it in the nose!
4. Thales has prepared a standalone version of SPECTRA’s active stealth 4 Tejas
=> Fit all this onboard = WOW!
The F414s can be used, maybe keeping some as spares, let”s say build 4 squadrons of 21+1 and keep a dozen F414 as spares?
Hardpoints have enough payload for 17 Meteor and 2 MICA-NG/IR :
http://i.imgur.com/rcxQxGI.jpg
Note that the integration can be a bit expensive, but….
Dassault-recommanded mods for Tejas (all blueprints ready since summer 2017!) I’d HIGHLY recommand to have this version once F414 are depleted.
– Same baked-in radar absorbent materials as Rafale
– Rafale’s active stealth [DRDO-validated]
– 98kN version of Rafale”s engine (as powerful as Mirage-2000-9, the Emirati on steroids version with 6.8t payload or as GE F414). Advantages : IR stealth, much smaller than F414 => 1.1m^3 less => room for fuel, 200kg lighter. Note : M88 is the only engine allowing 5-6 missions per 24h in normal use and no less than 1 week of intensive use with 10-11 missions per 24h (wasn’t tested further : after 1 week operations, Rafale-M faced a problem : lack of targets : Gaddafi’s army was totally f*cked up) [DRDO-validated]
– As much internal fuel as Mirage-2000
– Rafale’s AESA radar : much more powerful than Elta EL/M2052, serious ECM features [DRDO-validated]
– Reinforced airframe to take 11G
– 500kg lighter than Tejas Mk1 => 1,800kg lighter than Mirage-2000-9 with the same thrust => Payload and speed affected… And since M-2000-9 has 6.8t payload and is Mach2+ capable…
– Safran has created a joint venture with HAL to make the 98kN M88/K9+ (Kaveri 9+) in India
– BRS (balistic recovery system) parachute.
AS YOU CAN SEE BY YOURSELF, the full replacement of old IAF aircraft is feasible by the time Mrage-2000, MiG-29 and Jaguar won’t be able to serve any more….
Other things I’d recommand : give up classic airbases with Rafale : they take off in 400m and land in 450m.
A 600m portion of road able to cope with a 30t truck is enough. Take a look at Swede or Swiss hidden road-bases.
In case of war, classic airbases will receive a rain of ballistic+cruise missiles and swarms of drones.
Other weapons I’d recommand :
– MBDA Apache anti-runways stealth cruise missile. A Rafale may carry 5 at once : enough to demolish a 2,400m airbase runway
– CBU-105 : one kills 40 tanks (!)
– Modified K-LOGIR guidance kit for Hydra-70 guided rockets. Modified for more contrast : the basic K-LOGIR’s EO/IRST is deliberately ultra cheap to go only after ships, e.g. Kim ‘Rocketman” Jong Un’s swarms of speed boats, can be fit with better sensor. Advantage : fire’n’forget : just point the targetting laser once, and launch. Pods of 19. Each rocket compares with a TOW and ranges 10-15km from a fixed wing aircraft
– Zuni-LG : laser-guided Zuni rocket by MBDA. I’d recommand to create pods for 8-9 of these. 10km+ range. Third of a Hellfire’s price, twice the warhead and the speed.
Indian reliance on defense imports denotes Indian lack in military industrial complex. Though successive governments recites the mantra of elf-reliance and indigenisation, these objectives remain elusive. The challenges to Indian defense industry is from the corrupt bureaucrats to that of lack of technical expertise. The dearth of expertise often results in a parochial view of defence. Unless India overcomes these challenges, India will continue to falter on its mission to modernise its defence sector,
Rafale deal the largest defence scam that the country has seen. The Rs. 58,000-crore Rafale fighter jet deal has been at the centre of a raging political row with the Congress accusing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government of wrongdoing. It left the Indian Air Force high and dry, and by securing offset contracts for Anil Ambani’s new company that has no experience in building fighter aircraft, it also puts our national security at risk.
India will have less than half the fighter strength sanctioned two deacdes ago when Pakistan and China were weak by 2042! What should have been an Indian Air Force is sitting in overseas Bank Lockers of Politicians and Bureaucrats. What do you expect?
That’s not correct. How its possible for world’s largest arms importer to have a crippling IAF? This news is just to convinces masses to pour more money in defense expenditures. Its there to manage public perceptions in favor of investing in defense.
If two squadrons now cost about 60,000 crores, 42 will cost over twelve trillion. The Navy’s Budget is also very capital intensive. MoD will have to sit with the finance ministry and project its requirements far into the future, aligned with likely scenarios for India’s economic growth and the amounts that can realistically be earmarked for defence. 2.As a lay person one cannot judge how realistic this expectation of a two front war is. Preparing for it is becoming unaffordable.
No! In fact, the 2 squadrons don’t cost 60,000 crores at all… The flyaway cost is about the 3rd of it!
Half is an offset to build Dassault+Thales+Safran factories, have about 200 subcontractors settled, al this into JV with Indian companies, and the training of thousands of personnels.
One 6th of the contract is €710M in weapons, the integration of Indian, Russian and Israeli weapons, the Elbit HMD too, custom pylons for Russian weapons, 2 simulators, guarantee for 75% availability, training of pilots, maintenance facilities, MILCON, etc etc.
Note that the integration of Meteor on Typhoon costed $175M (Germany paid alone). Don’t hope any integration for cheaper than $100M from Saab or Boeing… Dassault is said having done a never seen price.
Let’s suppose you buy a total of 266 Rafale-C/B for IAF (14 squadrons and 14 spare aircraft), the flyaway cost would be around $19.5BN thus around 130,000 crore. I’m NOT counting weapons purchases, MILCON, spares, fuel
If Tejas is made the way Dassault recommands, it would cost about $45-46M/unit, flyaway cost.
14 squadrons of 21+1 spare = 308 units = $13.86BN => 92,400 crores
Add 57 Rafale-M for INAF : $4.85BN = 32,300 crores
About $38BN to be spent over 10 years.
This includes the Rafales already ordered, and I do as if all Tejas received the mods (you can read about in my other post on this page).
Now, it’s a bit the fault of all governments who neglected IAF since the Su-30 orders
For AMCA, consider it to start replacing Su-30 in the mid 30’s…
Unless IAF considers that since the French companies have became bi-national, joining the Dassault-Airbus 6th gen project makes sense, and considering 2 characteristics Dassault CEO spoke about at last Paris Air Show, these features would allow to make it much more than an aircraft (nothing official, but these are characteristics from e.g a space-shuttle : skin taking up to 3,650°C and reactance control system!)