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HomePoliticsYediyurappa seen sailing through Karnataka trust vote but Speaker could delay celebration

Yediyurappa seen sailing through Karnataka trust vote but Speaker could delay celebration

Yediyurappa expected to bring back BJP govt to Karnataka with a trust vote win after 17 MLA disqualifications pull House strength down to 208.

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Bengaluru: B.S. Yediyurappa, who has been sworn in as the 23rd chief minister of Karnataka, is all set to face the floor test Monday. Yediyurappa’s BJP government enjoys a wafer-thin majority in the assembly and could expect a few turbulences but the chief minister is confident that he can weather it all. 

The trust vote comes a day after Speaker Ramesh Kumar disqualified 14 rebel legislators under the anti-defection law Sunday, bringing the total count of MLAs debarred to 17. Of these, 14 are from the Congress and three are from the JD(S).

The move, however, is only likely to aid the BJP government as it reduces the strength of the Assembly to 208, down from the original 225. That leaves the halfway mark at 104, with the BJP requiring 105 MLAs. 

As the numbers stack up now, Yediyurappa is in the clear with 105 BJP MLAs on his side, and Independent MLA H. Nagesh also supporting the government.  

In contrast, following the disqualifications, the Congress now has 66 (including the Anglo Indian nominated member) and the JD(S) has 34 MLAs. The coalition can also count on the support of the Speaker, a long-time Congress man, but his vote will only be cast in the event of a tie. That leaves the coalition with 101 MLAs in its best case scenario.  

The tight numbers, however, had left the BJP’s central leadership jittery. The high command had communicated to the Karnataka BJP that it would have preferred a clear majority rather than a sword handing over its head.

JD(S) MLAs want to support BJP 

In the last few days there have been major tectonic shifts within JD(S), with  a section of party MLAs expressing a wish to support the BJP government. This has taken the leadership of the regional party by surprise.

The JDS’ Chamundeshwari MLA, G.T. Deve Gowda, who became a household name in the state after defeating former CM Siddaramaiah, has hinted that several party leaders had approached him with a wish to join hands and support the Yediyurappa government.

JD(S) supremo H.D. Deve Gowda, however, took to social media to clarify that the party is not “joining hands with the BJP”. Sources in the party say that the rebellion has already begun and it may be difficult for the Deve Gowda family to stop the legislators from crossing over to the BJP.


Also read: Modi and Shah have been challenged for the first time — by Yediyurappa, of all people


Road bumpy but clear for CM 

Most political analysts believe that Yediyurappa will win the trust vote, just not comfortably.

“The road is very clear for Yediyurappa to seek the vote of confidence,” said Bengaluru-based political analyst Mahadev Prakash.

“I believe that nearly 15-22 MLAs are in touch with the BJP high command and ready to split from the JD(S),” Prakash added. “The BJP has adopted an excellent strategy and according to their calculations, not only will they comfortably have a majority but they can also rule for the rest of the term.”

Professor Muzaffar Assadi of Mysuru University termed the developments as a Bharatnatyam of Democracy. He believes that it will not be a cakewalk for the newly-elected chief minister, particularly if Speaker Ramesh Kumar tenders his resignation at the beginning of the session Monday.

“If the Speaker resigns, then the assembly would have to elect a pro-tem speaker,” he said. “The BJP would want its own speaker, which means the party’s numbers will reduce to 104 from 105. The Congress+JDS would then be at 101.”

Assadi also said that the BJP central leadership had no choice but to go with Yediyurappa as there is no one else in Karnataka who enjoys the support that he does. But, he added, the BJP high command is also contemplating changing Yediyurappa quickly as he does not fit its current “communal” framework.

“Yediyurappa’s governments have largely been corrupt and not communal,” Assadi explained. “A corrupt government will not have time to play divisive politics and also history shows that during his tenure, minorities have never felt threatened because he has been known to be a lot less communal than his national colleagues.”

Finance Bill

One of the first orders of business after winning the trust vote for the Yediyurappa government would be to pass the Finance Bill. Speaker Kumar had commented last week that “it is the responsibility of all political parties in Karnataka to ensure that such a constitutional crisis is not created and the Finance Bill is passed”. 

“I will discharge my duty if they seek my cooperation to fulfil my obligation as per Constitutional norms,” he had said.

The outgoing government had sought an extension of the Assembly session till 31 July as the vote on accounts, which was passed by both Houses of Karnataka in February 2019, ceases on that day.

If the trust vote does not take place, it could lead to suspension of the assembly or President’s rule. Further, if the Finance Bill is not passed by 31 July, no money can be drawn from the public exchequer and government employees will not receive their salaries.


Also readB.S. Yediyurappa, the God-fearing, astrology-believing leader who’s rewriting rules in BJP


 

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