Why Hoshangabad could be a microcosm of BJP’s prospects in MP assembly election
Politics

Why Hoshangabad could be a microcosm of BJP’s prospects in MP assembly election

BJP holding its ground against heavyweight rebel and a rival 'savarna' party in Hoshangabad could be a reflection of its resilience across the state.

   
A car canvassing BJP leaders in Hoshangabad | Ruhi Tewari/ThePrint

A car canvassing BJP leaders in Hoshangabad | Ruhi Tewari/ThePrint

BJP holding its ground against heavyweight rebel and a rival ‘savarna’ party in Hoshangabad could be a reflection of its resilience across the state.

Hoshangabad/Itarsi/Seoni Malwa (MP): In a ferociously fought battle, it is often the smallest of challenges that is the real test of how a player is holding up, providing a window to its larger position in the contest and ability to put up a formidable fight. Hoshangabad district on the southern bank of the Narmada is one such microcosm for the BJP in this Madhya Pradesh assembly election.

In the 2013 polls, the BJP swept the district, winning all four assembly seats — Hoshangabad, Seoni Malwa, Sohagpur and Pipariya. However, in its stronghold, the BJP this time faces a unique political challenge — one that impacts not just one but two of these seats.

Senior leader and minister Sartaj Singh, who was denied a ticket this time, switched over to the Congress to contest from Hoshangabad, leaving the Seoni Malwa seat from where he has been a two-time MLA.

What this means is that the BJP is impacted in both seats — one for having lost its strongman from there and in the second, for being forced to face a challenge from its own veteran in a constituency which the party could have otherwise won without any real contest.

A poster of Congress leader Sartaj Singh | Ruhi Tewari/ThePrint

These are also two seats in the district where the Samanya Picchdaa Evam Alpsankhyak Sama (SAPAKS) — a savarna outfit formed against what upper castes believe to be the BJP’s tilt towards backward castes — are putting up candidates.

There has been concern in the BJP about whether SAPAKS can eat somewhat into its upper caste vote base — which is its traditional strength — and hence, give an edge to the Congress in a tightly fought contest.


Also read: BJP & Congress don’t want to field Muslims in Madhya Pradesh. Muslims say they understand 


The rebel factor

Sartaj Singh’s exit from the BJP and his embracing of the Congress has indeed ensured the party is given a tough challenge in both the seats. However, the BJP does not seem to have been edged out in either seat in any decisive manner, reflecting its ability to fight despite a three-term anti-incumbency sentiment and the challenge of a strong rebel.

A BJP poster showing assembly speaker Sitasaran Sharma | Ruhi Tewari/ThePrint

Voters in Hoshangabad say that Singh has now ensured BJP’s candidate — another strongman — assembly speaker Sitasaran Sharma has a tough competitor, unlike earlier when the Congress did not have any worthy opponent for him. A contest which could have been a sure shot win for BJP is now a contest in the real sense of the word, they say.

“The BJP is obviously affected, given earlier nobody from Congress was willing to fight against Sharmaji. Now there is a formidable contest,” says Ashok Varma, a shop owner in Itarsi.

“It seems like a 50-50 contest. BJP will face some vote losses since Congress candidate is strong, unlike earlier,” says Kamlesh Lalwani of Hoshangabad town.

Hitesh Badnani, a businessman in the town, agrees. “BJP’s position is strong. But of course, it will suffer because of the rebel. It would otherwise have been a 101 per cent BJP in, but now there is a contest,” he says.

While some claim they will support Singh because of his clean image and because they want some change, most, however, still believe BJP has the edge and they would want to support its candidate.

“We will support the BJP. Sartajji shouldn’t have left a party that gave him so much,” says Prakash Ahuja of Hoshangabad.

“Voters will be suspicious of him now. BJP has the definite edge, but he will cut votes for sure,” Ahuja adds.

Meanwhile, in the other affected seat — Seoni Malwa — the sentiment isn’t very different, with voters saying a contest has been created where there would have been none if not for the defection.

“See, if Sartaj Singh had stayed on in the BJP and fought from here, the party would have definitely won. Now, its candidate isn’t someone with the same clout as him and hence, it’s a 50-50 fight,” says Jeetendra Modi of Seoni Malwa.

Even though in both seats the BJP is now facing a fight with a heavyweight defection, it is still very much in the game, a reflection of its resilience in the Madhya Pradesh elections, which could help it overcome a string of negative factors.


Also read: Like BJP, but may vote for Congress – the perplexing politics of MP’s young voters


SAPAKS — a non-factor

If there is one thing voters in both constituencies agree upon, it is the fact that SAPAKS has no resonance whatsoever, and no ability to hurt the BJP. Many, in fact, just dismiss it as an outfit that will “lose its deposit”. This, despite many of these voters belonging to the upper castes that SAPAKS claims to represent.

A SAPAKS poster seen in Hoshangabad | Ruhi Tewari/ThePrint

“SAPAKS will lose its deposit. We wonder whether the candidate’s own family members will also vote for the party,” says Hitesh Badani of Hoshangabad.

“We have not even heard of SAPAKS as such. They have zero support,” says Bhajanlal Ahuja, another voter.

In Seoni Malwa, voters display the same sentiment about SAPAKS — it’s complete irrelevance and inability to impact the polls even slightly.

“They will have zero impact, leave alone dent the BJP,” says Pradeep Tiwari, a local resident.

So much so, that even the Congress in this area is willing to admit that SAPAKS, which could have helped it by cutting BJP’s votes, is a non-factor.

“They have no role to play, nobody is talking about them at all. They will not help or harm any of us,” says Sagar Mihani, a Congress worker in Hoshangabad constituency, who is directly involved in Sartaj Singh’s campaign.

What this means

Essentially, the BJP is fighting these polls with the baggage of several adverse political factors that can prove to be its nemesis. What, however, remains to be seen is whether it can overcome these negative issues and ensure it isn’t thrown out of the race. If Hoshangabad’s example and BJP’s seeming ability to be able to still hold its ground is anything to go by, the party may not have a reason to worry just yet.