New Delhi: Himachal Pradesh has spoken. By giving the Congress 40 and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 25 seats, voters foiled the Jairam Thakur-led BJP government’s efforts to buck the ‘riwaz‘ (custom) of a change in administration every five years since 1985.
Thakur, an ‘accidental chief minister’, tendered his resignation while the counting of votes was still underway Thursday. He had been appointed to the top post after party veteran Prem Kumar Dhumal lost the 2017 election despite the BJP securing 44 of 68 seats with a vote share of 48.8 per cent.
But more than Thakur, the onus of the Himachal defeat rests on BJP president J.P. Nadda, who invested immense time and energy in shaping the party’s election strategy in his home state.
लोकतंत्र में जनादेश सर्वोपरि होता है। देवभूमि की जनता के जनादेश का हम सम्मान करते हैं।
भाजपा हिमाचल की जनता के कल्याण के लिए समर्पित भाव से कार्य करती रहेगी।
— Jagat Prakash Nadda (@JPNadda) December 8, 2022
Conceding that the BJP’s campaign was “not in sync with the problems and emotions of people of Himachal this time”, a senior state BJP leader told ThePrint: “This was the first election where the party president micro-managed the entire affair. But the strategy backfired.”
“He (Nadda) overlooked the Jairam Thakur government’s shortcomings and did not intervene, like the surgery (read, change of CM & Cabinet) in Gujarat by Modi and Shah. He also did not do any course corrections by addressing local issues effectively. A senior minister raised the issue of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Uniform Civil Code, while the Congress banked on hyperlocal issues,” the leader added.
Also Read: In Himachal, BJP rebels impact party fate in 6 seats, but not instrumental in overall loss
Bypoll losses & ticket distribution
That support for the ruling party was waning in the hill state, first came to the fore in October 2021 when the Congress won three assembly bypolls, retaining Arki and Fatehpur, and wresting Jubbal-Kotkhai from the BJP.
If that wasn’t enough, the outcome of the Mandi Lok Sabha bypoll in November 2021 made it amply clear that the BJP had fallen out of favour with voters in certain segments, including in Mandi which happened to be the CM’s home district. Congress’ Pratibha Singh — the widow of former chief minister Virbhadra Singh — won the parliamentary bypoll.
The Congress campaign for the Mandi bypoll was largely centred on price rise, which the BJP downplayed claiming instead that sympathy votes cemented her victory.
But for the BJP, its choice of candidates was the real reason for its back-to-back bypoll losses, said sources in Himachal BJP.
For instance, Chetan Bragta was denied a ticket for the Jubbal-Kotkhai assembly bypoll owing to his proximity to Union minister Anurag Thakur, who also hails from Himachal, and the rapport Bragta’s father shared with Dhumal. Bragta contested as an Independent but lost to the Congress’ Rohit Thakur, while the BJP’s official candidate failed to even save poll deposit.
Following the bypoll loss, Nadda — whose term as the BJP president was extended in September — camped extensively in Himachal, implying that elections in his home state were a ‘prestige issue’.
Though Nadda spent over 30 days in Himachal before the campaign began, the central leadership failed to take serious note of local issues while relying almost entirely on PM Narendra Modi’s charisma to bowl voters over in the hill state. The party also did not take into account the massive anti-incumbency building up against ministers who did not spend enough time in their constituencies.
In the run-up to the election, after the party failed to reach a consensus on ticket distribution despite internal surveys and recommendations from Himachal BJP, Modi had to take the call in October, before a meeting of the party’s Central Election Committee, to sanction a third survey to get a sense of the winnability of prospective candidates.
Helicopters loaded with ballot boxes were then sent to Shimla from New Delhi, as part of the BJP’s efforts to give the ticket to the best candidates. However, the party seems to have missed the mark in terms of ticket distribution since 8 of the 10 ministers in the Jairam Thakur government in the fray lost the election.
हम जनादेश को विनम्रता के साथ स्वीकार करते है।
पाँच वर्षों में आदरणीय प्रधानमंत्री जी एवं केन्द्र सरकार द्वारा दिए गए बहुमूल्य सहयोग के लिए उनका विशेष आभार।
प्रदेश की जनता द्वारा सेवा के लिए दिए पांच साल के लिए धन्यवाद।
हिमाचल के सर्वांगीण विकास के लिए हम हमेशा तत्पर रहेंगे।
— Jairam Thakur (@jairamthakurbjp) December 8, 2022
For instance, minister Suresh Bhardwaj was pitted against Congress MLA Vikramaditya Singh — the son of late Virbhadra Singh — from Shimla Rural, and Sanjay Sood — a new candidate — fielded from Bhardwaj’s “safe” seat of Shimla Urban. Shimla Rural is a Congress stronghold and BJP’s own surveys suggested this would be a close contest, so the risk could have been avoided.
Both Bhardwaj and Sood lost to Congress candidates. During the campaign, Bhardwaj had said on the record that only local BJP workers could ensure his victory on Shimla Rural seat.
Apart from Bhardwaj, who was seen as Thakur’s number two, Ram Lal Markanda, Rajiv Saizal, Sarveen Choudhary, Govind Singh Thakur, Virender Kanwar, Rakesh Pathania and Rajinder Garg were the other ministers who lost the polls.
Rakesh Pathania’s defeat to Bhawani Singh Pathania of Congress in Fatehpur was widely reported owing to the presence of rebel BJP candidate Kripal Parmar in the fray. Parmar made headlines after he claimed to get a call from Modi asking him not to dent the BJP’s prospects.
While Parmar got only 4 per cent of the total votes polled in Fatehpur, three other rebel BJP candidates — who contested as Independents — won despite the BJP mounting a fierce campaign with all the resources at its disposal.
In contrast, five Congress ministers had lost in the 2017 assembly polls. Four BJP ministers met with the same fate in 2012.
Thumbs down for ‘double engine’?
Besides Modi’s rallies and roadshows, BJP also enlisted Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath and other star campaigners who invoked issues like the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) in public meetings, knowing fully well that Muslims make up only 2 per cent of the hill state’s population.
Overlooking the resentment simmering among voters over the Agniveer Scheme, the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) and the rising prices of cylinders and petroleum products, the BJP ran a campaign around the achievements of the central government and the promise of a ‘double engine sarkar’.
On the other hand, the Congress caught the people’s attention by promising to restore the OPS, to provide Rs 1,500 to all women aged 18-60 and to take decision on filling up one lakh government vacancies in the first Cabinet meeting.
For the BJP, the absence of Union home minister Amit Shah’s micro-management was another factor that contributed to its defeat, besides the party’s decision to appoint a number of in charges and co-in charges that led to confusion among the cadres.
Unlike in Gujarat, where the party dropped chief minister Vijay Rupani and his entire council of ministers in the run-up to the election and went for an organisation overhaul under its state party chief C.R. Paatil, the BJP made no such interventions in Himachal. The party, with an “uncharismatic chief minister and state president” in Himachal, relied heavily on Modi’s popularity without weighing local sentiments, said a former state BJP president.
A senior central BJP functionary explained: “After Amit Shah became party president in 2014, organisational roles were filled with people who could devote all their time without worrying about getting a ticket in the next election.”
“Such people were given preference when the party appointed national general secretaries but in Himachal, appointments like that of general secretaries and tickets were given to those close to Nadda. Nobody was on the ground to manage the election according to the organisational blueprint laid down by the central unit. But the blame cannot solely be put on Nadda because national general secretary (organisation) B.L. Santhosh also played a crucial role in shaping the strategy in Himachal,” said the functionary.
The BJP has traditionally been stronger in lower Himachal — Shantakumar hails from Kangra, Dhumal from Hamirpur and Thakur from Mandi. Though this time around, the ‘apple belt’ in upper Himachal’s Shimla region seems to have played a spoiler for the BJP in the hill state where every family is either directly or indirectly linked to the apple business.
A senior Himachal BJP leader said that, unlike the late Narinder Bragta, Mahendra Singh Thakur — horticulture minister in the Jairam Thakur government – did not meet with apple growers regularly enough. “Even when the CM intervened, the bureaucracy did not ensure swift implementation of his commitment to cool down the unrest.”
As a result, the BJP lost 14 of the 17 assembly seats in the ‘apple belt’.
In addition, the BJP was wiped out electorally from five seats of Solan and won only four of 15 seats in Kangra. Mandi and Kangra had ensured the BJP’s return to power in 2017. In 2022, the BJP managed to retain its grip only on Jairam Thakur’s home district — Mandi — where it won nine of 10 assembly seats.
Another factor that added to BJP’s loss was the CM’s leniency with bureaucrats. Despite his clean image, Thakur was bogged down by the perception that he lacked the sort of effective leadership that characterised former chief ministers Shanta Kumar, Dhumal or Virbhadra. Meddling by the BJP’s central leadership in the appointment of the chief secretary, besides alleged irregularities in police recruitment, dented Thakur’s credibility further.
A former minister in the Jairam Thakur government told ThePrint that Himachalis have an ‘emotional connect’ with Shanta Kumar, Virbhadra and Dhumal.
“Dhumal wanted to fight his last assembly election but the central leadership did not approve his candidature. This created ill-will among emotional paharis. Dhumal’s ticket recommendations were also ignored,” the former minister added, pointing out that the BJP lost all five seats in Dhumal’s stronghold Hamirpur.
The former minister added that party insiders suspect Himachal BJP general secretary (organisation) Pavan Rana may have misled the central leadership when feedback was sought ahead of ticket distribution.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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