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Modi magic limited to Karnataka in the south

BJP made some gains in Telangana, but finished a poor third in Kerala despite its role in the protests against women's entry into Sabarimala sanctum sanctorum.

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Bengaluru: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has had a dream run in the 2019 general elections, breaching the eastern and north-eastern frontiers, but it will still need to do better in the south if it has to be considered a truly pan-Indian party.

It has no doubt made surprising gains in Telangana and put up an unprecedented performance in Karnataka, but the BJP has drawn a blank in the three big states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, which together account for 84 Lok Sabha seats. The south, as a whole, has 130 parliamentary seats, about a fourth of the strength of the Lok Sabha.

The BJP has improved its 2014 tally from the south, and won more seats than the Congress, if that is any consolation, even if the overwhelming majority of those seats has come from Karnataka.


To get the latest on the Lok Sabha elections, click here 


In Kerala, where the Congress won 15 of 20 seats, the BJP’s showing must have come as a huge disappointment for the party, which had expected that the Hindu upper castes would rally around it in the Pathanamthitta constituency where the Sabarimala shrine falls.

The party finished a poor third here despite its attempts to reap the benefits of the controversy surrounding the entry of women into the Sabarimala temple.

Thiruvananthapuram was another constituency by which the BJP had set great store, but it could not stop Shashi Tharoor of the Congress from winning, even if it was able to increase its vote-share here and in the other seats it contested.

It is, however, the Left that is the biggest loser in Kerala, winning only one seat despite being in power in the state. The BJP will surely train its focus on expanding its base in Kerala in the coming years, just as it did in West Bengal at the expense of both the Trinamool and the Left.

In the weeks leading to Thursday’s results, the expectation was that the regional parties in the south — the Telangana Rashtra Samithi in Telangana, and the Telugu Desam Party and the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh — would play a big role in government formation at the Centre.

But with the Narendra Modi sweep taking the National Democratic Alliance, and the BJP itself, past the 300-mark, K. Chandrashekar Rao, N. Chandrababu Naidu and Jaganmohan Reddy have been reduced to mere onlookers.


Also read: Congress-JD(S) is the villain in the disastrous performance of their alliance in Karnataka


‘A party of the north’

While Naidu has been decimated, Jagan’s bargaining power with the Centre will not be as much as he had probably expected. His main poll plank was a ‘Special Category Status’ for Andhra Pradesh, which he had accused Naidu of failing to secure from the Modi government.

With little arm-twisting powers at his disposal, Jagan’s brilliant victory both in the assembly and the Lok Sabha elections will not mean much if Modi does not take him seriously enough.

For his part, Jagan has said he will support any party/alliance if it assures Special Category Status to Andhra Pradesh. But he also realises that associating himself too much with the BJP can prove counter-productive, given his support among the minorities in the state.

In Tamil Nadu, the results proved that the Modi magic found no favour with the state’s electorate. The BJP lost all five seats it contested in alliance with the AIADMK.

Clearly, barring Karnataka and to some extent Telangana, the BJP faces a perception problem in the south. It is still regarded as a party of the Hindi heartland and the emotive issues its campaign revolves around north of the Vindhyas, like the Ayodhya matter, find little resonance in much of the south.

In Tamil Nadu, especially, the BJP is seen as a promoter of Hindi at the expense of other Indian languages.

And in recent years, the refrain among southern chief ministers is that states in the south are getting a raw deal, with the 15th Finance Commission using the 2011 Census as the basis for devolution of central taxes to states.

They have been saying the southern states are being punished for keeping their population growth in check through a more effective implementation of family-planning programmes than northern states.


Also read: KCR’s federal front dreams crumble as BJP makes inroads in new southern turf Telangana


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1 COMMENT

  1. BJP has won Karnataka, high time kannada voters who reposed faith in BJP are rewarded with jobs and better faclities, the current coalition govt has help governance to ransom, but BJP is also party to kannadigas loosing jobs. Eg of SBM merged with SBI, loss making BOB taking over profit making Vijaya bank, denying HAL a piece of Rafaele deal and so on. In addition every scheme launched by central govt helps gujaratis, a case to point, loan under 60 mins for entreprenuers helps some gujarati company in Ahmedabad which gets paid 2% for processing, the gujarati connection is reaping profits hope kannadigas who voted hor BJP do not have to suffer loss of identity as well as jobs

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