New Delhi: The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is staring at a ‘deep crisis’, with the majority of non-Jatav Dalit voters deserting her in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, a fact that party chief Mayawati has sought to paper over by blaming the Samajwadi Party (SP) for the failure of their alliance in Uttar Pradesh.
The two parties contested 75 of UP’s 8o seats as part of the alliance, but the BSP ended up with just 10 and the SP with five. On Monday, the BSP decided to go solo in the bypolls to 11 assembly seats in UP, alleging that the SP couldn’t transfer its core voters to the BSP.
Mayawati said there was “no break-up” yet, but for the BSP to continue the alliance, Akhilesh Yadav must turn “his people” into “missionaries” to fight against the BJP.
The BSP cited the erosion in the SP’s “base vote” — Yadavs — and pointed to the party’s loss this Lok Sabha election in “Yadav-dominated seats” such as Kannauj, Badaun and Firozabad, on which Akhilesh’ wife and cousins unsuccessfully contested.
An analysis of the Lok Sabha election results in UP by ThePrint, however, shows that the facts are contrary to Mayawati’s claims. It was her failure to transfer the BSP’s core votes that led to the SP’s losses in those seats.
In Mainpuri, Yadavs could be counted on to stand solidly with SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, who got 59.63 per cent of the votes in 2014 while the BSP candidate secured 14.23 per cent. But as the alliance candidate in 2019, Mulayam’s voteshare went down to 53.75 per cent, suggesting that BSP voters stayed away from him.
While Mulayam Singh Yadav won Mainpuri because he courts the support of over 50 per cent of the voters, other party candidates weren’t as fortunate.
Also read: Mayawati now says break-up not permanent, leaves BSP & SP workers confused
A Lokniti-CSDS (Centre for the Study of Developing Societies) post-poll survey in Uttar Pradesh suggested an erosion in the core votebanks of both the SP and the BSP this election.
According to the survey, only 60 per cent of the Yadavs voted for the SP-BSP-RLD gathbandhan, while 23 per cent went with the BJP. In the 2017 assembly elections, 75 per cent of the Yadavs had voted for the SP-Congress alliance.
In the Lok Sabha election, as many as 75 per cent of the Jatavs voted for the SP-BSP-RLD alliance, but only 42 per cent of non-Jatav Dalits voted for them. As many as 48 per cent of non-Jatavs voted for BJP candidates.
“(The notion of) 21 per cent Dalit votes (for Mayawati) in UP is a myth,” said professor Badri Narayan, a social historian and cultural anthropologist at G.B. Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad.
“Jatavs who continue to vote for Mayawati constitute only 12 per cent of the total votes. The crisis in the BSP is very deep. If she does not change her political language, it will be over (for the BSP),” he added.
“Why did the SP suffer so much (in this election)? Because the BSP could not transfer the Dalit votes,” Narayan said. “Both the SP and the BSP must expand their vote base, which is shrinking. One-caste party doesn’t work anymore.”
Narayan was, however, of the view that the BSP’s crisis was “much deeper” than that of the SP. “Bahujan (meaning the people who are in a majority, comprising OBCs/SCs/STs) never got formed. It has remained just Jatavs for the Bahujan Samaj Party.”
In contrast, the BJP has broadened its social alliance “in the name of” Hindutva, development and aspirations.
There has been a continuous slide in the BSP’s voteshares in the assembly elections — it got 30.43 per cent of the votes in 2007, 25.95 per cent in 2012 and 22.23 per cent in 2017. Despite being in an alliance with the SP and the RLD in 2019, the BSP secured 19.26 per cent of the votes in UP, 0.51 per cent less than its 2014 voteshare.
Score vs scare
Mayawati’s latest move has left SP leaders dumbfounded. “We were given to understand (by Akhilesh) that Behenji (Mayawati) would move to the Centre as Prime Minister while Akhilesh would be the chief ministerial candidate (of the alliance) in 2022,” said an SP leader on the condition of anonymity as there is a gag order on him and other party leaders.
“The Lok Sabha election results did not go as per plans. So, she is now looking at the chief minister’s post in 2022,” the leader added.
BSP leaders who attended the party meet in Delhi earlier this week have a different story to tell, though. Behind Mayawati’s decision to “suspend” her alliance with Akhilesh is her intent to keep her options open in future, BSP leaders told ThePrint, suggesting that she doesn’t want to burn bridges with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
A senior leader rubbished SP leaders’ “speculation” about Mayawati’s chief ministerial ambition.“2022 is far away. The real issue is survival. It (decision to suspend alliance) is not about score (Lok Sabha seats). It’s about scare. Behenji has a lot of baggage and, if she is not careful now, we will be finished,” the BSP leader added, refusing to elaborate on what he meant by “scare”.
“I can only tell you that it’s not about elections or results,” he said, adding that since the election had ended, there was no reason for his party to antagonise the BJP.
After Enforcement Directorate (ED) raids in Lucknow this January in connection with the construction of memorials during Mayawati’s tenure as chief minister (2007-2012), the BSP had criticised the NDA government, accusing it of pursuing vendetta politics ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.
But with the Modi government getting a renewed mandate, the BSP has decided to recalibrate its equations with the BJP, especially at a time when Mayawati is witnessing her core support base shrinking.
Mayawati’s history of desertions
Any shift in Mayawati’s strategy, to give a cold shoulder to Akhilesh and warm up to the BJP just after elections, may leave the SP leader bitter, but the BSP is known for dumping its allies.
Akhilesh’s father Mulayam was the first to learn it, in 1995, when his pre-poll ally Mayawati brought down his government to become the chief minister with the BJP’s help.
In the 1996 assembly election, the Congress entered into a pre-poll alliance with the BSP, only to see the latter forming the government with the support of the BJP. In 2002, she again used the BJP to become chief minister.
In 2019, with her own votebank shrinking and BSP leaders facing heat from central investigation agencies, Mayawati is again looking to warm up to the BJP. Unlike in the past though, the BJP doesn’t need her now to further its political agenda.
Also read: Why BJP will rule India uninterrupted for the next 30 years, till 2049
What a shame! Don’t be talking about the maths and other reasons dear! Just find out common people’s problems(quality and cheap education, health, employment, agriculture, clean air….and WORK on it! Despite the defeat still calculations? WORK…that’s what we need.
The last sentence sums it up very well. UP’s 80 and Bihar’s 40 seats are a valuable core for the BJP. It will entrench itself deeply into these states. CM Nitish Kumar will be squeezed out. How can Ms Mayawati even dream of becoming PM …
And now Nitish Kumar is again trying to do a mahan gathbandhan with Manjhi, Lallu and Congress, in the hope to remain undisputed leader of Bihar.
In India all the family run parties are blaming others for the drubbings received in recent polls. Maya is blaming Akhilesh ,Amrinder blaming Siddhu Rahul blaming senior leaders, Gehlot blaming Sachin and Mamata blaming Ram. No family party head is retrospecting his/her shortcomings and lack of strategy in dealing with master strategists called Shah-Modi duo. They believed more on the English language fake media than the clear writing on the wall of future. Reason, they know that the moment they acknowledge their shortcomings, there will be revolt in the party cadre and TheEnd of family drama.