Bengaluru: V.K. Sasikala, former general secretary of the All India Anna Dravid Munetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and close associate of late former Tamil Nadu CM J. Jayalalithaa, was released Wednesday after four years in jail. She had contracted Covid-19 and continues to be in Victoria Hospital, where the formalities for her release were completed by Bengaluru Central Jail officials.
Sasikala had been imprisoned in February 2017 in a Rs 66 crore disproportionate assets case. Politicians and analysts expect her release could have an impact on the faction-ridden AIADMK, which is bracing for a likely internal struggle as it fights to retain power in this year’s assembly elections.
A close associate of Sasikala said her top priority was to ensure she gains control of the AIADMK again.
“She took three vows on the tomb of Jayalalithaa amma before she left for jail. She will now want to make those come true,” the associate said. There has been, however, no elaboration on what those three vows were.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami, better known as EPS, has already declared that Sasikala will no longer be a part of the AIADMK. Sasikala’s supporters also claim the BJP has sought her support in the elections, a claim local BJP leaders deny.
A senior AIADMK functionary added: “The BJP is already an ally in the upcoming elections. It is a known fact that she does not wield any power or clout in the AIADMK anymore… She can contest only after six years.”
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After Amma’s death
The death of the all-powerful Jayalalithaa on 5 December 2016 was followed by an intense power struggle in the AIADMK. O. Panneerselvam, who had stepped in to serve as chief minister when Jayalalithaa was jailed on corruption charges, once again became caretaker CM after her death.
Two months later, on 7 February 2017, Sasikala was chosen by the AIADMK governing council as chief minister of Tamil Nadu, replacing OPS, as he is commonly known.
OPS himself had proposed Sasikala’s name after resigning as CM during the meeting. But things got out of hand later, and OPS and Sasikala were locked in a power struggle.
Within hours of her conviction by the Supreme Court in the disproportionate assets case on 14 February 2017, Sasikala, general secretary of the AIADMK at the time, handpicked EPS to replace OPS, and expelled the latter with 19 other leaders for anti-party activities.
Soon after, OPS announced he was forced to resign by Sasikala so she could take over. OPS claimed that Jayalalithaa told him to take over as CM when she was in hospital.
“Amma’s spirit told me to come out and lay the truth in front of the people of Tamil Nadu,” he said at a public meeting in 2017.
But EPS is no slouch in politics — he is a powerful leader of the Gounder OBC community from Edappadi taluk in western Tamil Nadu who joined the AIADMK at a young age in the 1980s and was handpicked to prominence by Jayalalithaa because he was well connected to the ground.
He showed unstinted support to Jayalalithaa when the party split in the aftermath of supremo M.G. Ramachandran’s death, and ended up becoming part of her inner circle, and later, of the so-called ‘Nalvar Ani’ — the four-member ‘elite cabinet’ that Jayalalithaa is said to have formed for her 2011-16 term as CM. He was the second choice of the AIADMK cadre for CM, behind OPS.
In a matter of months, OPS struck a compromise with EPS and returned to the AIADMK fold, becoming deputy CM and chairman of the party’s steering committee. Then, on 12 September 2017, it was payback time for OPS as Sasikala was expelled from the AIADMK.
Since then, Palaniswami and Panneerselvam have had a healthy working relationship, and the rebellions within the party have been quelled, with the focus shifting to governance.
Speaking about the EPS-OPS partnership, an AIADMK leader pointed out how the government put out full-page advertisements in newspapers, highlighting the CM’s governance and achievements, and the very next day, more ads prominently featuring the deputy CM.
“For the first one and a half years, EPS spent sorting out the internal battles in the AIADMK. Since then, he has worked tirelessly to attract investments into the state and provide good governance,” said political analyst Sumanth C. Raman.
“One major point to be noted is his strategy not to engage in any sort of confrontational politics, which has kept friction between him and OPS at bay,” Raman added.
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What Sasikala’s return could entail
There is much speculation that Sasikala’s return could upset the fine balance between EPS and OPS and revive the power struggle.
On 9 January, the AIADMK general council unanimously passed a resolution declaring EPS as its CM candidate for the assembly elections, seemingly settling the issue of leadership. However, the BJP is yet to endorse his candidature, and on 18 January, EPS met Union Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi. AIADMK party sources insisted that EPS discussed the political situation in Tamil Nadu with Shah, and also the possible impact of Sasikala’s release.
It was after this meeting that EPS stated categorically that there was no chance of her return to the AIADMK. “She is not part of the party anymore; I can tell you, 100 per cent, there is no chance of Sasikala returning to AIADMK, as there are hardly any more followers with her,” Palaniswami said on 18 January.
Yet, rumours persist that if Sasikala decides to challenge EPS, many factions, including the breakaway Amma Makkal Munetra Kazhagam (AMMK) led by her nephew T.T.V. Dinakaran, might get activated. Sources say the AIADMK leadership is in talks with Dinakaran, but there has been confirmation from him yet.
Many AIADMK supporters believe Sasikala could join hands with the BJP, with sources in the national party’s state unit also claiming it has approached her to bring the rank and file of Jayalalithaa’s followers together.
However, political analyst K.N. Arun said: “The big question is not what impact Sasikala’s release from prison will have on AIADMK, but whether it will have an impact. I see only a marginal effect, with a few desertions here and there, but none by leaders of any significance. EPS is on solid ground.
“The fact that Sasikala can’t contest elections for six years, and also her health, will put paid to any hopes of a split.”
(This article has been updated with K.N. Arun’s quote)
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