Local issues and anti-incumbency have made the BJP nervous, but it also has faith that Modi’s magic will shine through in the end.
Ahmedabad: Gujarat is the junction where ‘Modi global’ meets ‘Modi local’. That’s what Gujarat BJP leaders like to say when they want to skirt questions about local discontent and anti-incumbency.
The BJP seems nervous, but also a bit smug. It is convinced that the “Modi magic” will tide over all local factors – the Patidar agitation, unemployment, GST, demonetisation, and the failures of local MLAs – to help the party retain power in Gujarat.
Congress murmurs in PM’s den
The BJP is facing anti-incumbency for the first time in the Unjha assembly constituency in north Gujarat. This is the seat that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hometown Vadnagar falls under, and five-time BJP MLA Narayanbhai Patel is contesting here for the sixth time.
A Patidar and Thakor-dominated constituency in Mehsana district, the battle for Unjha has grabbed attention because a good number of Patidar voters seem willing to switch allegiance from the BJP to the Congress, under the influence of Hardik Patel.
Many Patidar youth – Hardik’s target audience – complain that Narayanbhai has ignored their issues. Sachin Patel, 19, a first-time voter from Sidupur village, says: “He no longer listens to us or meets us. People vote for him only because of Modi. But I am not going to vote for him.”
Narayanbhai dismisses these complaints, saying just a handful of youth have come under Hardik’s influence.
“I will win this election on the development done by our government in the region,” he says. “Look around and see for yourself. There are only a few youngsters under the influence of Hardik; he is not a factor here.”
However, older Patidar voters, too, are considering a switch, for different reasons.
Vishnubhai Jethabhai Patel, 52, from Varvada village in Unjha taluka, runs a dairy business. Two years ago, he wanted his daughter to study in a medical college. “Private colleges’ fees were very high. My daughter was good in her studies, but she finally had to join the state police for a salary of Rs 4,500 per month,” he says.
In February this year, the state government increased the salary of low-grade police personnel, and now, Vishnubhai’s daughter earns Rs 17,500 per month. “Had there been no election, they wouldn’t have increased the salary. I still want my daughter to study MBBS. I have great respect for Modi, but others in his party are not good,” he says, adding that there is no harm in giving a chance to the Congress.
Kantibhai Manikbhai, a farmer from Vadnagar taluka, went to attend Rahul Gandhi’s rally in the area on 9 December, and was impressed with what he heard. “The Congress is talking about us, and has promised to do a lot for farmers. I wish it comes to power to do all this,” he says.
However, he himself will not be voting for the Congress. “My son and family are voting for the Congress this time. But my vote will go to bada pradhan (Modi). I hope he addresses our problems,” he says.
This Modi factor is evident outside his home region too, irrespective of the rural-urban divide.
On the outskirts of Ahmedabad lies Bhadaj village, dominated by Patels. It falls under Ghatlodiya constituency, which was earlier represented by former CM Anandiben Patel. This time, the BJP has fielded Bhupendra Patel, a local leader. The Congress has also fielded a new candidate, Shashikant Patel.
Jigisha Patel, a homemaker and wife of a cable TV operator, says: “The leaders only come during the elections, I don’t know any of them. I only know Narendrabhai (Modi), and there is no question of voting for any other party than the BJP.”
However, as we are about to take our leave, she adds: “The school fee is very high. We are reeling under financial pressure. Please convey this message to the BJP.”
Modi above all else
None of the BJP leaders in the state talk about local issues, such as the privatisation of education, high-cost health services, more electricity for farmers, etc. The party has been in power in the state for more than 20 years, and yet, its vision document gives no statistics on the famous ‘Gujarat model’. The eight-page booklet just features some general pointers rather than specific ones, and looks like a rehashed version of the 2012 manifesto.
All this points to a sense of nervousness within the BJP, says Amit Dholakia, professor of political science at MS University, Vadodara.
“The fact that the PM is playing on the tweets of some irrelevant Congress leader shows the party’s frustration and desperation,” he says.
The Congress’s strategy is clear: to take the debate from Modi to local issues.
“We have decided not to make any comments on the Prime Minister, and instead focus on issues. We won’t let them divert attention from the real issues,” says Congress chief spokesperson Randeep Singh Surjewala.
In every speech, Rahul Gandhi promises the farmers that within 10 days of coming to power, a Congress government will start the process of waiving off their loans.
And yet, the Modi factor seems to tower above all.
“Narendra Modi is the only man who can attract voters without talking about how to address problems faced by people of Gujarat,” Dholakia says.
“In most regions, there are disagreements with the BJP, but not anger. The BJP has also tried to overcome anti-incumbency by putting up new candidates. But it’s all backed by the Modi factor.”
Indeed, Modi’s son-of-the-soil appeal scores over the ‘navsrijan’ (new creation) promised by the Congress. Sure enough, Jitubhai Vagani, state BJP chief, says the Modi factor is what’s giving the BJP confidence.
“Modi is the most popular leader in the country, and Gujarat loves him. We are fully confident of winning the election, there is no doubt,” he says.