In the 2011 assembly polls, the BJP secured 4 per cent of the total votes in the constituency. In 2016, it got 30 per cent, but lost to CPI(M).
Bengaluru: BJP national president Amit Shah has asked local party cadres to do a Tripura in Kerala – win the forthcoming by-election to the Chengannur assembly seat, which fell vacant after the death of incumbent MLA K.K. Ramachandran Nair of the CPI(M).
The contest in Chengannur will now be triangular, between the Congress-led UDF, the CPI(M)-led LDF and the BJP. And even though the date for the bypoll is yet to be announced political temperatures in the constituency are rising.
The 2016 assembly elections marked a watershed moment for the BJP as it made its debut in the 140-seat assembly — veteran politician O Rajagopal won from Nemom — and crushed claims that its entry in god’s own country was impossible.
Now, fresh from the party’s win in Left citadel Tripura, Shah has set a new goal towards the BJP’s ‘Mission Kerala’.
BJP national executive committee member V Muraleedharan said the win in Tripura had “definitely built up pressure for the BJP in Kerala”.
“It has thrown up a question for all of us — if Tripura can be won, why not Chengannur?” he added. “We have taken up the challenge.”
Kerala has only ever voted either the LDF or the UDF to office. With this mind, Shah has created a road map for the party cadres to break the two coalitions’ dominance, as part of a larger strategy to boost the party’s prospects in the southern states. The BJP has been in office in Karnataka, but struggled to come into its own in the other states down South.
The question, however, is whether the BJP stands a chance in Chengannur.
In the 2011 assembly polls, the BJP secured 4 per cent of the seat’s total votes. In 2016, it got 30 per cent. In the same period, the Congress’ vote share came down from 52 to 31 per cent, and the CPI(M)’s from 42 to 36 per cent.
The BJP and its allies together contested from all the 140 seats in 2016, and there was an uptick in the BJP’s votes across the state. The saffron party clinched 10.6 per cent of the votes in the constituencies they contested, and 15.2 per cent overall.
Former BJP state president P.S. Sreedharan Pillai is likely to be the BJP’s candidate for Chengannur.
“People did not consider us a serious contender in elections earlier. In the 2016 elections, the party polled got more than 43,000 votes in the constituency, which shows that we are equal to the UDF and the LDF, and have created a triangular fight,” Pillai said. “There is a Modi wave in Kerala and people are looking for a change.”
Sources in the state BJP unit alleged that where the party fielded candidates, “the UDF and the LDF forged a secret pact to beat them”, citing as examples the closely fought elections to the Nemom and Manjeshwar seats.
Both the Congress and the CPI(M) dismissed the claim as a “Himalayan lie”.
Traditionally, Chengannur has been a Congress stronghold, with the party winning the seat in 10 out of 14 elections. The CPI(M) won it in 2016, defeating the Congress here after nearly 30 years.
P.C. Vishnunath, Congress’s two-term Chengannur MLA who lost the 2016 election by 7893 votes, has refrained from contesting this time. He is, however, quite convinced that the Congress will regain the constituency.
“I lost the election because a strong rebel candidate and three-time MLA Shobhana George cut into my vote share. This time, we will sweep the election. There is an anti-incumbency factor against the LDF and the BJP has no support on the ground,” he said.
“Amit Shah said they will dissolve the state unit of the BJP if they lose this election. They will shut shop and soon,” he added.
The CPI(M), which will seek in the result a verdict on Pinarayi Vijayan’s tenure so far, will field district secretary Saji Cherian.
Asked whether the Tripura defeat had demoralised the party’s cadres in Kerala, Cherian said, “In Tripura, our vote share has dropped by just 3 per cent. The BJP believes they can play minority politics, but the people will not accept it.”
“Our populist schemes and the image that the BJP has portrayed nationally of being a divisive party have given us an advantage,” he added.