Chennai: The upcoming Erode East bypoll in Tamil Nadu, scheduled for 27 February, is set to be the first electoral face-off between the two warring factions of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) — one led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) and the other by O Panneerselvam (OPS).
The EPS faction Wednesday announced 65-year-old K.S. Thennarasu, a two-time MLA from Erode constituency — first, in 2001, before the delimitation in 2008, and the second time in 2011 from Erode East — as its candidate.
And before the day had ended, OPS, too, had fielded his faction’s candidate for Erode East — 45-year-old Senthil Murugan.
“EPS has been decisive. He moved court asking for the (AIADMK) symbol, and he announced his candidate first. Now his focus will be on ensuring a respectable (victory) margin to show that he has the support of the AIADMK cadre,” said political analyst Sumanth C. Raman to ThePrint.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), an ally of the EPS faction, is yet to decide on whether it will field a candidate for Erode East.
According to top BJP sources in the state ThePrint spoke to, the party’s stand on the bypoll will be announced by Friday. They said the senior leadership of the party has been more focused on preparing for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
On questions related to the alliance, BJP’s state vice-president Narayanan Thirupathy told ThePrint: “BJP Tamil Nadu will make its stand clear in a day or two regarding the Erode East by-election.”
OPS Wednesday had said in a press briefing that “his support would be for the BJP if they were to field a candidate and Senthil Murugan would withdraw from the fray” — words which Raman said were “an attempt by OPS to try to get closer to the BJP”.
OPS had also announced a 118-member election committee that would work for his faction.
For Erode East, the ruling DMK and its alliance partners have decided that the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee (TNCC) will contest.
Former TNCC chief E.V.K.S. Elangovan, who will face assembly elections after almost 39 years, has been chosen as the candidate.
The Erode East seat fell vacant after the sudden demise of Elangovan’s son E. Thirumahan Everra, who died of a heart attack on 4 January this year.
“The upper hand in the contest will most likely be with the Congress because of the sympathy and because of DMK’s strong backing. The only fight between the warring factions of the AIADMK will be to see who comes second,” said senior political observer S. Ramesh.
Also read: EPS one step up in AIADMK power battle, receives ‘crown’ as OPS booed out of council meeting
Ousted OPS & interim general secretary EPS
Last year, at the AIADMK’s General Council meeting, 2,460 members unanimously passed a resolution to remove former Tamil Nadu chief minister OPS from the primary membership of the party. EPS, another former CM and leader of the opposition in the assembly, was voted in as the interim general secretary.
The decisions in the meeting prompted clashes between the two factions at the AIADMK headquarters, leading to the sealing of the building by the revenue department.
Ousted OPS’ faction faced more setbacks. First when the keys of the party headquarters were handed over to EPS, and then in September 2022, when a two-judge bench of the Madras High Court upheld the general council’s appointment of EPS as the interim general secretary.
This verdict was contested by the OPS faction in the Supreme Court, which also dismissed the plea. OPS then appealed again on the same matter in the apex court, and the verdict is awaited.
In the Election Commission (EC), both OPS and EPS are still recognised as Coordinator and Joint Coordinator, respectively, of the AIADMK — something which the EPS faction has objected to.
Erode East bypoll test of power
For the two factions, the Erode East bypoll will be the real battleground.
Erode East is part of the state’s Kongu belt, EPS’ bastion. In this poll, both EPS and OPS have fielded candidates focusing on community-based voters. While Thennarasu belongs to the Gounder community, Murugan is from the Mudaliar community — both numerically strong communities in the region, said analysts.
“There is not much base for the OPS faction in this region, but if the contest had been in the south of Tamil Nadu, then the scenario would have been different. In this constituency, if both EPS and OPS contest, EPS will get more votes than OPS,” said S. Ramesh.
Ma Foi K. Pandiarajan, former AIADMK minister, told ThePrint that “98 per cent of the party is with one person — EPS, while OPS is just a media creation.”
OPS loyalist and former MLA J.C.D. Prabhakar, however, stated that the “cadres of AIADMK recognise OPS, the man chosen by (late AIADMK supremo) Jayalalithaa as their leader, and wanted OPS, the coordinator of the party, to select the (bypoll) candidate”.
He added that the AIADMK’s two-leaves electoral symbol was “theirs”.
Battle for two leaves
The EPS faction has already approached the Supreme Court demanding the allotment of the two-leaves symbol, the AIADMK’s identity.
In court, EPS has pled that the EC recognise his appointment as the interim general secretary, and requested abolition of the coordinator post. The court has slated the case for hearing on 3 February.
“Right now, the current judgment of the Madras High Court favours EPS and I don’t think the EC — without facing allegations of being driven by the BJP — can do anything other than allot the symbol and interim general secretary position to EPS. We will stand with the two-leaves symbol and the BJP will not have any choice but to support us,” said Pandiarajan.
The EPS faction Wednesday opened an election office in Erode with the banners saying ‘National Democratic Progressive Alliance’ instead of ‘National Democratic Alliance’ (which is led in Tamil Nadu by the EPS faction of the AIADMK along with the BJP and other parties). The banners made no mention of the BJP anywhere. By Wednesday night, the banners had been rectified to say ‘AIADMK-led alliance’.
Meanwhile, the Tamil Manila Congress, an ally of the AIADMK, has pledged its support to the EPS faction.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
Also read: Palaniswami-led AIADMK is bad news for BJP in Tamil Nadu but it opens up opportunities too