To win MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the BJP is banking on Congress infighting, goodwill of its leadership and its robust organisational structure.
New Delhi: With the Karnataka elections and a string of crucial by-elections behind it, the BJP is now gearing up for assembly polls in four states later this year, hoping to cash in on the infighting in the Congress, the goodwill of its top leadership and its robust organisation on the ground.
Assembly elections are due in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram — the first three being BJP-ruled states where the party is likely to face a tough battle trying to defy double anti-incumbency at both the state and national level.
All three states will also witness a straight, bi-polar contest between the BJP and the Congress.
In Mizoram, the BJP will try and conquer the last sister of the northeast, and has already begun its groundwork for it.
Congress infighting
Sources in the BJP say while they know all three states are “extremely difficult contests” given the level of anti-incumbency, the party’s “greatest asset are the divisions within the Congress in these states”, something the party “hopes will work in its favour”.
In the 230-member assembly of Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has been winning comfortably against the Congress in the past three assembly elections, and so, chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan will have to defend an anti-incumbency of three terms, making it advantage-Congress.
However, the infighting within the Congress unit — leaders such as Kamal Nath, former CM Digvijaya Singh and Guna MP Jyotiraditya Scindia are all vying for top spots — has been the party’s biggest drawback. Even though the Congress has tried to ensure clear work divisions — Nath has been made state president; Scindia has been appointed the campaign committee in-charge and Singh the coordination committee chief — the fact that rivalries and resentment continue to persist is an open secret.
In Chhattisgarh, Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s “recent overtures to (ex-CM) Ajit Jogi is worrying the BJP”, said a party leader in the state who did not wish to be identified.
Jogi had quit the Congress in 2016 to form his own party. However, the party leader says this may also work in BJP’s favour, and which way the wind blows with respect to the Congress-Jogi bonhomie will be crucial for it.
“We know Jogi has many detractors in the Congress, and if he does join hands with the party, it is possible there will be infighting and sabotage, thus helping us,” the Chhattisgarh leader said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Rajasthan, meanwhile, is the BJP’s weakest link, and the party is well aware of this fact — particularly after the huge reverses it suffered in the Alwar and Ajmer bypolls. It is also a unique state with 200 assembly seats where power has been alternating between the Congress and BJP since 1993.
While chief minister Vasundhara Raje’s “rising unpopularity” is a huge cause of concern, the BJP hopes to “minimise its losses” because of the factionalism in Congress — the rivalry between state party chief Sachin Pilot and former CM Ashok Gehlot.
“We know Rajasthan is a very tough battle. The idea is to just minimise our losses and ensure we manage to retain ground in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in the state,” said a BJP source.
“The Gehlot-Pilot battle helps us, might ensure we are not wiped out,” the source added. The BJP won 24 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2014 and will want to ensure it stays at a respectable number next year.
Organisational structure and Sangh
Under party president Amit Shah, the BJP will look to replicate its now successful organisational structure — go down to booth-level committees, use vistaraks or full-time workers as well as various morchas and make the organisation even more robust ground-up.
The party knows that in elections where you are battling anti-incumbency, the ability to mobilise voters will become even more important, particularly ensuring that the party’s key base does turn up to vote.
In all three states, the RSS, the BJP’s ideological parent, will play the role of a supplement. This, however, will play out differently in the three states.
“Because of clear differences between key Sangh functionaries and the Rajasthan CM, BJP knows that RSS’s role in the state will be little,” said a BJP leader in Rajasthan.
“By contrast, the state where it will play the most active role is MP, where Sangh has an active network, and supports Chouhan completely,” the leader added.
To back Chouhan further, party general secretary Ram Madhav and his successful northeast election machine will work in the state. Madhav is known to be close to Chouhan; they had travelled to the US together and key events of Madhav’s India Foundation are held in MP.
Madhav is bringing in his experience, skills, and aides to strengthen BJP in Madhya Pradesh.
Goodwill of leadership
The BJP is clear that in MP and Chhattisgarh, it has to play up its faces — Chouhan and Raman Singh — who still enjoy popular goodwill, while downplaying Raje in Rajasthan and using Prime Minister Narendra Modi there extensively.
The BJP believes Chouhan enjoys “tremendous goodwill and people admire his work”. It also believes the farmers’ agitations and unrest were more “localised phenomenon”, restricted to regions like Mandsaur and will not impact the entire state.
In addition, the caste factor works in Chouhan’s favour. According to the ministry of social justice and empowerment, the OBC population in the state is around 41 per cent and Chouhan is an OBC, unlike Scindia and Nath.
In Chhattisgarh, the BJP is banking on the fact that there is no big face in the Congress. In Rajasthan, a carefully crafted caste coalition of Jats, Rajputs, Pandits and Meenas is being worked out.
While there is speculation that the Modi may not “over-expose” himself in states given the tough challenge at hand for BJP so close to the Lok Sabha elections, party sources claim Modi will — like all past elections — campaign vigorously in all three states.
“We are not thinking of what will happen in 2019 if Modi is over-exposed in these polls. That is to be seen later,” said a member of Modi’s team. “What is important right now is that we win these elections, and hence all energies will be focused on that, including using the PM to the fullest.”