The ruling alliance partners should be worried about keeping happy disgruntled MLAs who could be easily enticed by the BJP, analysts said.
Bengaluru: Karnataka chief minister H.D. Kumaraswamy may have crossed the first hurdle by effecting a cabinet expansion but there is still the danger of disgruntled JD(S) and Congress MLAs being poached by the BJP, which is waiting in the wings with 104 legislators.
With most of the 24 ministers being sworn-in belonging to southern Karnataka, political analysts said Kumaraswamy seems to have taken the interests of his own region into account more than anything else. However, it’s the Congress which is facing a rebellion within the party for ignoring senior leaders, especially those from the Lingayat community, they said.
“They (coalition partners) have a very limited number of berths and within that they will have to see who they can accommodate,” said political analyst Ramakrishna Upadhya.
“Naturally they will have to work out a formula whereby they can sideline those who will not switch sides. But their biggest fear is that the BJP may try to poach (MLAs),” he pointed out.
According to the agreement between the two parties, the JD(S) has 12 slots in the cabinet while Congress gets 22.
A total of 25 ministers — 14 from the Congress, one each from BSP and Karnataka Praja Janata Paksha and nine, including Kumaraswamy, from the JD(S) — have been inducted into the cabinet so far, leaving nine berths open for future expansion.
But many Congress leaders such as former minister M.B. Patil, who was in the forefront of the agitation demanding a religious minority status for Lingayats, are feeling left out, sources said.
“There are still six slots open (for Congress). Maybe leaders like M.B. Patil could be inducted next time,” Upadhya said.
Political heavyweights ignored
Omission of former Congress ministers such as M.B. Patil, Shamanuru Shivashankarappa and Ramalinga Reddy from the cabinet has led to widespread protests across the state.
But for both the parties, the real worry is how to accommodate those members who could be easily enticed by the BJP, which is waiting in the wings with its 104 members to carry out what is seen as another version of ‘Operation Kamala’.
According to political observers, given a chance BJP could make disgruntled MLAs from either the Congress or the JD(S) to resign and get them re-elected on BJP tickets.
In 2008, BJP used ‘Operation Kamala’, which was merely a method to work around the anti-defection law and garner the required support to ensure that the party crossed the magic figure of 112.
In addition, there is also a section of Congress legislators who have serious reservations about the coalition with the JD(S) given they had fought against JD(S) leaders in southern Karnataka.
However, senior Congress leaders say they have worked out a formula to quell the “rebellion” within the party.
“Some people have to be left out; some had to be taken in. We did not have any other option,” Congress working president Dinesh Gundu Rao told ThePrint.
“We still have some slots available. Those deserving will get an opportunity. Also, we will review the performance of the ministers and take a decision later,’’ he added.
Rao, however, warned that those indulging in anti-party activities will face action.
Balancing the caste equations
When the government was formed 15 days ago, Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) and G. Parameshwara of the Congress were sworn-in as CM and deputy CM respectively.
The cabinet expansion was not much of an issue for the JD(S) since its entire support base is confined to south Karnataka. Barring a couple in north Karnataka, it has no legislators of its own in more than a dozen districts.
So naturally the JD(S), which largely represents the Vokkaliga community, focused on its territory and tried to keep its legislators happy, say political observers.
However, there are allegations of JD(S) ignoring senior member and seven-time MLC Basavaraj Horatti.
“They have not given me an opportunity and I feel extremely upset by this…Deve Gowda has not spoken to me despite trying to meet him twice,” Horatti told ThePrint.
However, the Congress that has 18 Lingayat legislators is facing the real test. The party has given just four seats to this community, while allotting three berths each to OBCs, SC and other sections of society.
Political analysts say this was expected by both the Congress and the JD(S). “That is why they have left a few slots open as shock-absorbers,” said Harish Ramaswamy, another political analyst.
There would be great moral hazard in destabilising the democratically formed state government in Karnataka. The national mood would frown upon it. The apex court is yet to pronounce judgment on the propriety of the Governor’s conduct.