Assam Bodoland council polls will test BJP’s reach in region, decide fate of ally BPF

With BJP looking to unseat ally Bodoland People's Front, questions have risen if the ruling party will go alone in the state assembly elections next year.

Assam cabinet minister and North East Democratic Alliance convenor, Himanta Biswa Sarma (centre), at a public rally in Baksa district | Twitter | @himantabiswa

Guwahati: The first phase of elections to the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) in Assam began amid tight security Monday morning. The polls for this 40-seat tribal council are being seen as crucial before the Assam assembly elections next year.

The outcome of these local council elections will decide the fate of Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) chief Hagrama Mohilary, who has retained power since the council’s creation in 2003. BPF is also an ally of the BJP at the state level.

But the BJP is now aiming to unseat BPF and questions have risen if the ruling party will break ties with BPF for the state assembly elections next year — a decision left to be taken by the central BJP leadership. Speculation has also arisen on whether the BJP, which has had a minimal presence in BTC so far, is likely to expand its grip over the tribal region.

The present council’s five-year term ended in April and it is currently under the governor’s rule. The polls for the four districts under BTC (Baksa, Udalguri, Kokrajhar and Chirang) had to be postponed because of the pandemic.

Voting for the first phase was underway for 21 seats in Baksa and Udalguri districts. The other 19 seats, in Kokrajhar and Chirang districts, will be held in the second phase on 10 December. Results will be announced on 12 December.

Formation of Bodoland Territorial Council

The demand by Bodos, the largest plains tribe in the Northeast, for a Bodoland led to the signing of three accords between the central government, Assam government and Bodo militant groups in 1993, 2003 and 2020.

The 2003 accord led to the formation of the BTC, an autonomous self-governing body under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution. It looks after the administrative affairs of the four districts under BTC, all of which have a sizeable population of the Bodo community.

The first BTC election was held in 2005 when Mohilary formed the BPF and was elected its first president.

The Centre and Assam government had signed the third accord on 27 January this year with four factions of the insurgent group National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and the All Bodo Students’ Union (ABSU). The region was also renamed Bodoland Territorial Region from the previous Bodoland Territorial Area Districts (BTAD).

BJP-BPF relations

Relations between the BJP and BPF started souring after the Bodoland Territorial Council was placed under the governor’s rule in April. While Mohilary had insisted on an extension of the council’s term by six months, the BJP was in favour of imposition of governor’s rule. The BPF soon announced that it would be looking for alternatives.

The BJP, meanwhile, cozied up to the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) led by Pramod Bodo. Assam cabinet minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, who is also the BJP’s key strategist in the Northeast, had reportedly said that his party will not renew the alliance with BPF for the assembly polls next year.

Mohilary is looking for a fourth term, but he is faced with corruption and misgovernance charges by ally BJP. Analysts, though, believe that there could be an “unexpected verdict” for the BPF chief who might find acceptance among non-Bodo voters this time.

“It looked difficult for him initially, but in past two-three months, when BJP leaders started campaigning here, the support has been in his favour, particularly from the non-Bodos. The Muslims will support him. They are almost second in majority, and third comes the Rajbongshis who are supporters of the All Assam Students’ Union. For issues like the Citizenship Act and NRC, these voters have taken the side of Mohilary,” Bhaskar Narzary, professor at the Kokrajhar Government College, told ThePrint.

The BJP has fielded 26 candidates against the BPF’s 37. In 2015, BPF won the elections, bagging 20 seats and formed the council with the help of an Independent, while the BJP had won just a single seat.

UPPL’s presence

Analysts believe that chances are also good for the UPPL, the party that gained strength with the joining of former All Bodo Students’ Union (ABSU) president Pramod Bodo soon after the signing of the third Bodo accord this year.

Pramod, who had spearheaded the Bodoland statehood movement, had joined UPPL in the presence of former NDFB leaders. The UPPL had won seven seats in 2015 and is contesting in all 40 this time.

Before casting his vote Monday, Pramod offered prayers to ‘Bwra Bathow’ (Shiva) at his residence. Like the BJP, the UPPL has also been banking on parivartan and overall development as its major poll planks, besides raising the dominant issue of corruption against Mohilary.

“The Hinduism card does not play well in BTAD (territorial area districts) as we have diverse ethnicity and different religious beliefs. The UPPL will do better, but without BJP doing well, they cannot come to power. They should have stayed with the minorities — they did very well in last election together with Congress and AIUDF. This time, they betrayed the minorities and supported RSS and BJP, which has adversely affected them,” said Narzary.

Even though the UPPL and BJP had announced in their election manifestos that they would implement all clauses of the Bodo accord if voted to power, Narzary said there was a deeper sense of insecurity among Bodos and non-Bodos over “inclusion and exclusion of villages” in the region.

“The accord is very confusing for all. This insecurity of Bodos and non-Bodos over land rights will adversely affect the UPPL,” he added.

Following the signing of the third accord, eight NDFB-leaders are also contesting the BTC polls this time, with the UPPL fielding five former rebels from the NDFB-Progressive and NDFB-S faction.

Congress and AIUDF 

The Congress and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) are jointly contesting in 20 seats, while the Gana Suraksha Party (GSP), which has been voicing for the safety and security of non-Bodos, are contesting in 35 seats.

The Congress and AIUDF are also shaping the election map in the region where non-Bodo voters account for 70 per cent of the electorate. These voters, considered “kingmakers”, are the only hope for Congress and AIUDF in the territorial region.

“The non-Bodos are the kingmakers and without their help, nobody can win any election. There are certain pockets where AIUDF will definitely win and no one can prevent that,” Narzary said, adding that AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal has pledged open support to Mohilary.

While the state Congress leadership had expressed willingness for an alliance with AIUDF for the assembly polls next year, the Congress high command is yet to take a decision in this regard.