scorecardresearch
Friday, March 29, 2024
Support Our Journalism
HomePoliticsAIADMK's Erode bypoll loss a sign for 2024? 'Shouldn't be taken alarmingly,'...

AIADMK’s Erode bypoll loss a sign for 2024? ‘Shouldn’t be taken alarmingly,’ say analysts

Thursday's result brought huge defeat for AIADMK's K.S. Thennarasu, with Congress’s E.V.K.S. Elangovan winning by a margin of over 66,000 votes.

Follow Us :
Text Size:

Chennai: Despite the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ensuring that only one candidate from ally All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) was fielded in Tamil Nadu’s Erode East bypolls earlier this week, the results Thursday brought in a huge defeat for the party, with AIADMK’s K.S. Thennarasu losing to the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance candidate — Congress’ E.V.K.S. Elangovan. Elangovan won by over 66,000 votes.

The bypoll, necessitated by the sudden death of sitting MLA Thirumahan Everaa, came amid infighting in the AIADMK between the Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) and O. Panneerselvam-led factions. The EPS faction had managed to get the AIADMK’s two-leave symbol from the Election Commission of India (ECI) in the run-up to the polls.

Undeterred, OPS had announced 45-year-old Senthil Murugan as his candidate for the polls, but stepped back later, following intervention from ally BJP.

Though the ruling government’s victory was expected, according to political analysts, “the margin of the victory indicates not only the strength and influence of the ruling party (the DMK), but also the weakness of the current opposition,” said Ramu Manivannan, professor at the department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Madras.

While the counting of votes was underway Thursday, celebrations had already begun at the DMK Headquarters — Anna Arivalayam, Chennai, and in Erode — with cadres bursting crackers, and distributing sweets.

“The 20-month Dravidian model government has received its needed recognition in this election,” said DMK chief and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin. He added that the (AIADMK) defeat was like the people of Erode teaching a befitting “lesson to opposition leader EPS who made fourth-rate remarks”.

Meanwhile, two-time MLA Thennarasu, walked out of the counting area halfway and told reporters in Erode, “Cash power won and democracy lost”.

While there have been speculations about whether the bypoll result was indicative of voting patterns for next year’s general elections, according to political observers in the state, bypoll results have not always been reflective of parliamentary or assembly election results.

What it will raise, they feel, are questions about the dynamics within the AIADMK and with ally BJP.


Also read: Confident BJP will cross 140 mark in Karnataka, form govt on its own: co-in-charge Annamalai


Precursor to 2024?

Speaking to the media at the party headquarters Thursday, Stalin called the by-election result a precursor for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. “It is clear that the Dravidian model is the government people have deemed as best,” he said.

BJP state chief K. Annamalai also referred to next’s year’s general elections, while speaking to reporters in Villupuram.  “We accept the people’s mandate. 2024 election is the election for BJP, by-election was not for BJP. But we had wholeheartedly worked for our alliance partner,” said Annamalai.

He added: “I won’t accept that the polling reflects the governance of the DMK in the 21 months.”

Political observers, however, feel the by-election results are more indicative of a trend in state politics, where the ruling party has traditionally won by-elections since independence. “In R.K. Nagar by-election in 2017, T.T.V. Dinakaran (who broke away from the AIADMK to form the Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam) had won the seat, while AIADMK came second and DMK third and even lost its deposit. But in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, DMK swept the election,” G. Kubendiran told ThePrint.

He added: “By-election (result) should not be taken alarmingly. It won’t be balanced. The trends of by-elections have not always reflected the Lok Sabha or the state assembly polls results.”

Breaking into the AIADMK fortress?

The Kongu belt (of which Erode East is a part) has been (traditionally) seen as an AIADMK fortress and in the 2021 state assembly polls as well, the AIADMK had won 26 of 38 constituencies in the Kongu region of western Tamil Nadu, comprising Coimbatore, Tirupur, Erode, Dharmapuri, Nilgiris, Salem, Namakkal and Krishnagiri.

For the AIADMK which is currently being likened to a “broken house” — because of the infighting between EPS and OPS — the results will ring an alarm bell, said analysts.

“It will give out a perception that EPS may be weak in his own bastion of the Kongu belt. There are chances of the BJP demanding more seats in 2024 (from its ally) and also more pressure to combine together or at least form an alliance with O. Panneerselvam,“ said political analyst Priyan (who goes by only one name).

“It is a broken house, EPS-OPS internal rift factor and allies not taken on board effectively all played a role in this loss,” said Ramu Manivannan.

Though observers felt “OPS would not have fared any better in the region”, the AIADMK defeat in the bypolls may act as an opportunity for OPS.

“OPS will certainly bring up how he pulled out the candidate for having one person representing the two leaves symbol, and this loss will see OPS’ supporters raising their voice once again against EPS’ leadership,” said Priyan.

But this won’t change the “hold of EPS on the party nor would any of his followers rethink about their choice,” added Manivannan.

BJP’s growing presence?

Tamil Nadu has been a stronghold of Dravidian politics since 1967, where no national party has been able to make inroads.

Now, while AIADMK’s byelection loss may have given the BJP more “bargaining power” for the future, according to political observers, “EPS is a confident person”.

“Win or loss, this won’t put him down, but this shows the overall trend in state politics vis-a-vis DMK and AIADMK,” said Manivannan.

“In Tamil Nadu, a BJP alliance will be a setback. Anti-Modi wave is the highest in the state. As long as the DMK and Congress are in alliance it will be difficult for BJP to make inroads into the state,” said Kubendiran.

(Edited by Poulomi Banerjee)


Also read: Laying ground for 2024 or just ‘photo ops’? Stalin’s field trip through 4 districts sparks buzz


 

Subscribe to our channels on YouTube, Telegram & WhatsApp

Support Our Journalism

India needs fair, non-hyphenated and questioning journalism, packed with on-ground reporting. ThePrint – with exceptional reporters, columnists and editors – is doing just that.

Sustaining this needs support from wonderful readers like you.

Whether you live in India or overseas, you can take a paid subscription by clicking here.

Support Our Journalism

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

Most Popular