The exit poll numbers are unbelievable. There’s no reason to suggest the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance should lose a single of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha.
It is likely that 23 May will prove the exit polls wrong — after all, they have mostly been wrong over the years. In 2014, they suggested the NDA was coming to power but could not foresee the BJP winning a majority on its own. The pattern may well be repeated.
The modest exit polls foresee the NDA winning anywhere between 277 and 352 seats. As for the BJP itself, the range is between 227 and 291 seats. Only two exit polls have suggested that the BJP could win more than its 2014 tally of 282 seats.
Why should the BJP or its allies lose a single seat? The way things are, they should be winning every single seat in India.
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The Congress party announced in advance that it was only seeking to triple its 2014 numbers, from 44 to 132, which won’t even be half of the majority mark, which is 272. The party’s data analyst, Praveen Chakravarty said this, and then Madhya Pradesh chief minister Kamal Nath repeated it. If the BJP’s main opponent publicly says it is not even trying to win enough seats necessary to lead a coalition government, why should the BJP and its allies lose a single seat?
Narendra Modi has been gifted the poorest opposition possible. It can’t come together and form coalitions even when it can see it is going to get wiped out. It can’t come up with an election promise that would be believed and bought by the people. It can’t do a campaign on what everyone knew was the greatest issue before the people – unemployment. Worst of all, the opposition is so poor it doesn’t have one leader who looks prime ministerial, whom the people of India would want to see as their PM.
The opposition didn’t even try to win this election. In 2014, there was at least an Aam Aadmi Arvind Kejriwal fighting in Varanasi. This time, the opposition couldn’t even put up a star candidate against Modi in Varanasi. Modi didn’t even go to Varanasi after filing his nomination papers. The Congress suggested it is not up for the fighting after Priyanka Gandhi said she was considering it. The Samajwadi Party didn’t even put up their half-strong local candidate. The walkover in Varanasi is symbolic of the walkover Modi got this election across India.
It is strange, then, that even the most optimistic exit poll (Axis MyIndia) sees the NDA losing 177 of 542 seats. What’s wrong with the people in these 177 constituencies? How could they want Rahul Gandhi as PM? Or do they want an unstable coalition that makes India weak, a government that can’t take strong decisions like demonetising 86 per cent of the currency overnight on a whim?
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To be fair to opposition leaders, some say it’s not all their fault. Modi is the master of propaganda, they say. Agreed. Switch on the TV and you will only see NaMo and then there’s a NaMo TV to switch to when the ‘news’ channels are showing ads. On WhatsApp and newspapers, on outdoor media and train tickets, Modi is everywhere.
This complete and total bombardment of the Indian mind with the visage of Narendra Damodardas Modi makes sure people think there is no one but Modi. In a country of 1.3 billion people, aur hai kaun? Wonder how the trains ever ran, how the wars were ever fought, how the roads were ever built before Modi became prime minister. That is how Modi propaganda makes people think. Which is why one wonders, why should Modi be losing a single seat?
On those approximately 177 seats that the Axis MyIndia exit poll found the NDA losing, one wonders if the opposition had a lot of money. After all, Modi has outmatched the opposition in resources several times over. Most of the opaque electoral bonds’ money goes to the BJP, which was the party with the deepest coffers even before electoral bonds. We are not suggesting the Yeddyurappa diaries have any truth in them and black money could be flowing in the BJP election campaigns. Meanwhile, the opposition finds itself facing tax raids before elections, their small change taken away. It is bizarre that such a financially weak opposition should be winning even a single seat.
The Election Commission has been so openly partisan, so afraid to censure Prime Minister Modi, that it appears there are two different model codes of conduct – one for the top BJP leaders, and the other for the rest of the politicians. With the EC being so kind to Modi, he knows he can get away with anything. And he does. Which is why one wonders why Modi should not win all 542 seats. If the umpire looks away when you cheat, why should you lose a single wicket?
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Doubt is human nature. Sometimes people wonder if Narendra Modi is really the best deal for them. They wonder if they should try another leader, if there’s one. Could it be that Rahul Gandhi is not as bad? Usually, the opposition will do something stupid, like Rahul Gandhi running away for a Europe vacation, just when people are beginning to have doubts about Modi. No problem, there’s fake news for the doubtful Modi supporter. Just feed them fiction and they’ll say Rahul Gandhi thinks potatoes can be turned into gold. Feed them fiction and they’ll think demonetisation was a great success.
Which is why one wonders how the BJP is losing a single seat. Surely, the exit polls are playing it safe.
It is human nature to see some people as their own and some as enemies. The BJP has played on this forever. As Amit Shah threatened to implement the NRC across India, he stoked the fear of, basically, expelling millions of Muslims. By making Hindus see Muslims as their enemies, the BJP tries to make people forget caste and economy, regional aspirations and anti-incumbency. Which is why one wonders why the exit polls are so modest. In a country with 79 per cent Hindus, how could the BJP lose any seat? Given that Hindutva majoritarianism has become so mainstream that a Godse-loving terror accused can be given a ticket, why do we still have any Hindu not voting for the BJP?
The exit polls cannot be believed. The Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance must be all set to win 542 of 542 seats, a first in Indian history. Anything less than 542 will be a defeat for Modi.
As for that cancelled poll in Vellore, it was cancelled because too much money was flowing into the seat. When it is held again, surely money won’t be a problem for the NDA.