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HomeOpinionWhy India needs to move on from 'one-size-fits-all' strategy & think about...

Why India needs to move on from ‘one-size-fits-all’ strategy & think about easing lockdown

In episode 455 of #CutTheClutter, Shekhar Gupta analyses data to argue that India's lockdown has been successful but now it can be eased in some states with low Covid-19 cases.

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New Delhi: The lockdown has slowed Covid-19’s doubling rate in India. The doubling rate is an epidemiological metric of how long an infectious disease takes for the number of cases to double. The number of Covid-19 cases is now doubling in every 12 days when they were doubling in every three days before the lockdown.

People argue that India isn’t testing enough, but actually nobody is testing enough. Even though New York in US is testing more than entire India combined, it isn’t enough. We have to work with the data we have. It’s impossible that a large number of deaths are happening unreported, so at least in terms of death, India isn’t hit very hard.

Currently, 4.1 per cent of people who are tested in India are positive of Covid-19. This is much lower than France, Spain, Italy and other countries.

The lockdown has worked, but very few people can endure the lockdown. Elites can survive happily in the lockdown by working from home and ordering groceries online, but poor people are facing a difficult time. The country has to think about opening-up.


Also read: Relaxed lockdown between 3 and 15 May but no public transport likely, PM Modi tells states


7 states account for more than 5 per cent cases each

Countries were applauded for not putting a lockdown and yet fighting the virus successfully. Sweden, one of the most developed countries in the world is one such example. However, Sweden’s fatality rate is 197 per million while India’s fatality rate is 0.65 per million. Belgium has the worst fatality rate with 169 per million.

Now, within India, only seven states account for more than 5 per cent of India’s cases each. These are Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Delhi. Then, only three states have between 2-4 per cent of India’s cases — Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal.

Five states have 1-2 per cent of the country’s total cases. These are Haryana, Karnataka, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir and Kerala — all sizeable states. These states can open up due to the low number of cases and aid in economic activity. Finally, there are 17 states each that account for less than 1 per cent of India’s cases. One-size-fits-all strategy should discontinue and India needs to open up regions which aren’t affected as much.

Watch the latest episode of CTC here:

 

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