Dinakaran’s facile win will ensure realignment of forces. It is too early to predict what kind of realignment, but all options are open to all the players.
The political melodrama in Tamil Nadu continues with unexpected twists and turns. J. Jayalalithaa’s companion V.K. Sasikala and her nephew T.T.V. Dinakran refuse to go away from the scene.
The much-awaited R.K. Nagar bypoll result surprised many, because Dinakaran, a man facing corruption charges for bribing the voters, won the constituency last held by Jayalalithaa, amid allegations that his money power was responsible for his stunning victory. He surpassed the victory margin of even Jayalalithaa, who had held the seat twice before her death. Contesting as an independent candidate, Dinakaran created a record by winning one vote more than the combined votes polled by the other 57candidates.
Even before the verdict came out, Dinakaran predicted that the E. Palaniswami-O.Panneerselvam government would fall in three months. Before noon, BJP MP Subramanian Swamy tweeted: “Dinakaran seems to have won the R.K. Nagar election caused by JJ death. I expect to see the two ADMK factions now to unite for 2019 LS poll.”
Takeaways from the result
First, there will be realignment of political forces in Tamil Nadu. The scene will change, perhaps for the worse, with more instability and horse-trading. For the EPS-OPS combine, this was the first test after coming together to form the government, but even after winning the two leaves symbol of the AIADMK, they lost the bypoll. Perhaps people are angry at the non-governance.
In the history of bypolls in Tamil Nadu, only once has the ruling party lost a by-election. What happens to the AIADMK now is anybody’s guess. Will it remain together for the sake of power? Will it disintegrate, with one section going to the DMK and the other to Sasikala and Dinakaran? Or will the whole party go to Dinakaran? EPS and OPS should protect their flock, or else Dinakaran is bound to poach on them with his newfound confidence.
The ruling AIADMK can probably find solace in the fact that perhaps none of the MLAs would risk going to the polls again, when they have another three-and-a-half years to go. They might also lose the legacy war, as the Sasikala-Dinakaran faction is already claiming Amma’s legacy.
Second, for the DMK, which was in an advantageous position because of the three-way split in AIADMK votes, M.K. Stalin’s leadership has not won votes. He has failed in his first acid test after taking over the party as working president. This, despite the advantage of the 2G case acquittal of A. Raja, Kanimozhi and others, and also the arithmetic in its favour with the support of the Congress, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi and the Left parties, and a committed vote bank.
After Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited DMK chief M. Karunanidhi’s residence last month and invited him to come to Delhi and recuperate at the PM’s official residence in Delhi, there was speculation that a deal had been struck – that in return for the acquittal of DMK leaders, the DMK would align with the NDA before the 2019 polls. The acquittal had strengthened this rumour to a certain extent. However, with the party candidate losing his deposit in the R.K. Nagar bypoll, both parties may need a rethink. All options are open for the DMK, the Congress and the BJP before the 2019 polls.
Third, for the Congress and the Left parties, this must have come as a disappointment as, despite their support, the DMK was not able to win the seat. The effect of a resurgent Congress was not evident in this constituency.
Fourth, for the BJP, the result must have come as a big setback for its expansion plans in the state. The party won half as many votes as None of the Above (NOTA), and came last in the polls, revealing how its dream of making inroads into Tamil Nadu remains just a dream.
The BJP seems to have messed up in Tamil Nadu. First it supported Panneerselvam when he was chief minister after Jaya’s death, and even helped in resolving the Jallikattu crisis. Then it supported the EPS-OPS combine and the united AIADMK. There were reports that it was the BJP which was running the government through the back door.
When it found that the government was not stable, the BJP toyed with the idea of moving to the DMK, which was why the Prime Minister visited Karunanidhi. Now that the DMK too has come a cropper, what will the saffron party do? Will it patch up with Dinakaran if he manages to gain control of the AIADMK? Or will the BJP help in decimating Dinakaran further with his corruption cases? Or do its plans of aligning with the DMK remain firm?
The R.K. Nagar result will ensure realignment of forces in Tamil Nadu. It is too early to predict what kind of realignment will take place, but all options are open to all the players. Each one is watching the other before making the next move.