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HomeOpinionPolitically CorrectWhy Modi and Shah are softening towards regional parties ahead of 2024

Why Modi and Shah are softening towards regional parties ahead of 2024

BJP leaders aren't worried about the Congress or an opposition alliance coming to power. They are worried about the BJP's tally going below 240-250.

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At a meeting with Bharatiya Janata Party leaders in Mumbai last month, Union home minister Amit Shah had a very enthusiastic legislator in the audience.

The MLC wanted to speak about ally Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena. He was of the view that the Shiv Sainiks aligned with the Sena before its split were not shifting to Shinde’s Sena. “Aap baith jaiye (you sit down),” Shah told him. The latter, a prominent member of the Legislative Council, wouldn’t relent, those privy to the deliberations told me. Known to be close to deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, he wanted Shah to know that Shinde’s party was not able to get the old Sainiks into its fold. A visibly exasperated Shah said firmly, “Baith jaiye, baith jaiye, Modi ji ko sab kuchh pataa hai (sit down, Modiji knows everything).”

The seeming reluctance to discuss the internal affairs of an ally comes at a time when the BJP is well into Phase II of its expansion plan. Having reduced the Congress to its lowest tallies in the Lok Sabha in the 2014 and 2019 elections, it has been going at full throttle to put down regional parties and grow at their expense. “Our party leadership has been unequivocal about splits in regional parties. These splits are good. These parties are like a fish, which must remain small enough for the shark (read BJP) to eat and grow bigger,” a BJP leader told me.

Shah’s mild rebuke to the party MLC in the Mumbai meeting was a sign of change in the BJP’s strategy vis-a-vis allies in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha election—from its care-a-damn attitude and aggressive expansionist agenda at the cost of both allies and rivals in states to a more accommodative approach to coopt them. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reported comment at the meeting of chief ministers and deputy CMs on Sunday came as another sign of this change in strategy. The Times of India quoted Modi as telling them that there should not be a perception that the BJP is not comfortable with regional parties.

“We should deal with the regional parties in a way they understand we are more concerned about regional sentiments,” he reportedly said.


Also Read: Vishwaguru vs who in 2024? Oppn has multiple answers if it chooses to look beyond Rahul Gandhi


What’s behind BJP’s softening

Modi and Shah seem to have realised the need to rope in more allies in the run-up to the 2024 elections. As it is, except for the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu, the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the Jannayak Janata party (JJP) in Haryana, the ruling party at the Centre doesn’t have any significant allies at the state-level which could make a difference. There is also a question mark on the electoral potential of these three in 2024.

Last week, there were 13 NDA constituents who signed a statement, condemning the boycott of the inauguration ceremony of the new Parliament building. Apart from the BJP, the AIADMK, the Sena and the JJP, co-signatories included Apna Dal, Tamil Maanila Congress, Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (Pasupati Paras faction), Indhiya Makkal Kalvi Munnetra Kazhagam, All Jharkhand Students Union, National People’s Party (NPP), Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), Sikkim Krantikari Morcha and Mizo National Front. This list of 13 includes three parties from Tamil Nadu and five from North-Eastern states.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP had 26 allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The BJP had won 282 seats and its allies 54 seats in the Lok Sabha, taking the NDA’s total tally to 336 in the 543-member Lok Sabha.

Of the 54 seats the allies contributed, 18 came from the Shiv Sena, 16 from the Telugu Desam Party, six from the Lok Janshakti Party, four from the Shiromani Akali Dal, three from the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) and two from the Apna Dal, among others. Out of the dozen parties, which signed the statement against the opposition boycott last week, only the AIADMK has the potential to contribute in any significant way as Tamil Nadu sends 39 MPs to the Lok Sabha. The principal opposition party in Tamil Nadu is, however, much weakened today in the absence of a charismatic leader like J Jayalalithaa and the expulsion of former CM O Panneerselvam.

In the 2019 election, the BJP won 303 seats and its allies 50 seats to take the ruling NDA’s tally to 353. The allies tally included 18 from the Shiv Sena, 16 from the JD(U), six from the LJP and two each from the Apna Dal and the SAD, among others.

Essentially, there were four parties that contributed significantly to the NDA’s tallies in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections—Shiv Sena, TDP, JD(U), and LJP. As it stands, the TDP and the JD(U) are no longer with the BJP and it’s left with the Shiv Sena (minus Uddhav Thackeray faction) and the LJP (minus Chirag Paswan faction). The Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena remains electorally untested in the context of the next Lok Sabha election— if one were to discount the recent assembly by-polls. Although PM Modi has retained Pasupati Paras of the LJP in his Cabinet, it’s Chirag Paswan who has actually inherited his late father Ramvilas Paswan’s political legacy in terms of popular support on the ground.

Having lost about two dozen small and big allies in the past nine years, the BJP is now staring at the possibility of facing double anti-incumbency in 2024 virtually alone, given the support base of its present allies. That explains Modi-Shah’s softening approach towards regional parties.

After its defeat in Karnataka early this month, the BJP and its allies govern 43 per cent of the land area and 44 of the population in India, down from 78 and 69 per cent respectively in December 2017, as reported by India Today.

Addressing party MPs in December 2017, PM Modi said that the Congress under Indira Gandhi had governed 18 states but the BJP and its allies had gained power in 19 states in the first three-and-a-half years (since he became PM).

The NDA went on to add three more two months later—Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland. Today, the BJP has its chief minister or a deputy CM in only a dozen states.


Also Read: PM Modi must worry. Karnataka is the latest sign of a deepening crisis ahead of 2024 LS polls


BJP peaking in states?

No wonder BJP leaders are having jitters about 2024, notwithstanding their public grandstanding. No, they are not worried about the Congress or an opposition alliance coming to power. They are worried about the BJP’s tally going below 240-250, which would take away the halo around the Modi government.  With so many anti-Congress parties in the opposition camp, the BJP could still cobble up a majority in the Lok Sabha — but PM Modi wouldn’t be the same then. Just imagine a BJD, a Trinamool or a JDU minister opposing a policy at the cabinet meeting presided over by Modi! Or think of the TDP or the YSRCP threatening to pull the government down if Modi didn’t rein in the Enforcement Directorate or the Central Bureau of Investigation. These are hypothetical scenarios, of course. I am only imagining a Modi-led government dependent on the support of others for survival.

That’s the thought that must haunt the BJP leadership today. Even at the height of its popularity in 2019, it got 303 seats, 31 more than the majority figure in the Lok Sabha. In 2024, as it stands today, it won’t have anything more to add to what it had already offered in 2019 to the increasingly transactional voters with ever-increasing demands. What would also bother the BJP is the fact that it has already maximised its tally in several states in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections: 73 and 64 (including the ally) out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh; 26 and 26 out of 26 seats in Gujarat; 25 and 25 (including the ally) out of 25 seats in Rajasthan; 27 and 28 out of 29 in Madhya Pradesh; 10 and nine out of 11 in Chhattisgarh; 12 and 12 out of 14 in Jharkhand; 17 and 25 out of 28 in Karnataka; seven and 10 out of 10 in Haryana; seven and seven out of seven in Delhi; five and five out of five in Uttarakhand; and, four and four out of four in Himachal Pradesh.

I am sure some die-hard optimists may still see scope for improvement in some of the above-mentioned states. For instance, one might argue that the NDA didn’t win 16 out of 80 seats in UP last time and it can go for a clean sweep there in 2024. Then, they might contend that the BJP won only 23 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra in 2014 and 2019 and the party can improve its tally. No point quibbling over it either. They may have similar hopes in Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

There is nothing wrong with their optimism. Modi and Shah would also like to share the same belief. But they wouldn’t let their optimism come in the way of hard reality checks. That explains their softening stance vis-à-vis regional parties.

Coming weeks and months are likely to witness a new BJP that would be much more indulgent and accommodative towards its current and prospective partners. Estranged or abandoned partners such as SAD’s Sukhbir Badal, TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu and LJP’s Chirag Paswan are likely to get the much-awaited call from Delhi sooner rather than later. Modi and Shah have to do it to ensure that they don’t depend on partners for a majority in the Lok Sabha. That’s how they stoop to conquer.

DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. Views are personal.

(Edited by Theres Sudeep)

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