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HomeOpinionNo Chinese ‘occupation’. Geolocated images show fast in-and-out intrusions by India and...

No Chinese ‘occupation’. Geolocated images show fast in-and-out intrusions by India and China

Using a video and image of alleged India-China scuffles, we were able to locate the exact place of the fracas and show Army pushed back Chinese intrusion.

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We have been surveilling the India-China Line of Actual Control or LAC in Ladakh area almost real-time since several stand-offs were reported a few weeks back, using satellite imagery. For the most part, we found not a single blade of grass amiss save for a brief Chinese encampment on the Indian side of the Galwan Valley. That intrusion was so small — around 40 to 60 Chinese troops — that it simply did not merit the kind of rhetoric and escalation that we have seen over the last fortnight.

However, the inadvertent release of an unauthenticated video (showing Indian troops allegedly attacking Chinese troops and their vehicle) and of an image (showing the Chinese allegedly having bound and apprehended Indian troops) provided us vital clues on what has been happening to justify the heightened tensions. Using these two visual sources we were able to not just triangulate the exact location of the fracas, but also the approximate dates and sequence of events.

It turns out our initial assessment of the situation — that there is no Chinese occupation of Indian territory — is quite correct. The reason the satellites did not see any “occupation” is that there was none. Instead, what has been happening is a series of fast-paced in-and-out intrusions by the forces of India and China into each other’s territory. While the gravity of China’s provocation has been much more serious, but note that India stemmed this, push the Chinese back and retaliated swiftly in order to re-establish deterrence.


Also read: The Chinese are so predictable, Modi & Shah should’ve seen them coming on 5 August 2019


Incident A: Chinese intrusion into India

The video purportedly showing a Chinese patrol intercepted and beaten up by Indian troops is particularly illuminating. The still shot capture (Image 1) allows us to geolocate the incident (Image 2). This is almost 2 kilometres inside Indian territory (as the crow flies), as measured from the LAC close (0.62 kilometres) to the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) camp at the base of finger 4 (Image 3).

Image 1 from video of alleged scuffle | Images 2 and 3 via Google | Abhijit Iyer Mitra and Twitter/@Detresfa_
Image 1 from video of alleged scuffle | Images 2 and 3 via Google | Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

The overall location of the incident and the Indian camp with respect to the LAC and the fingers can be seen in Image 4.

Image: Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

We were able to place this incident at some time between 19 and 21 May based on two other incidents. The first was a significant beefing up of the ITBP camp starting on 21 May, clearly in response to some trigger, and the second was studying the movement patterns of the Chinese vehicles involved in this incident.

The vehicle (Image 5) is a Dongfeng CSK131, a Chinese armoured four-wheel drive vehicle similar in function and style to the American Humvee. The purpose of this vehicle is high-speed reconnaissance — which is to say it does a rapid drive-through of hostile terrain. An example of such a drive-through by a similar type of vehicle was during the 2003 US invasion of Iraq when the Humvees along with tanks were the first vehicles to enter Baghdad for a rapid reconnaissance.

Screengrab from video | Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

Our visual surveillance of Chinese camps in the region did show a change in the parking positions of these vehicles as well as trucks (presumably transporting the troops seen in the background in Image 5). Significantly all these vehicles seemed to have returned to their Chinese bases, with none staying on the Indian side over a 14-day period. This proves that whatever happened was momentary and was repulsed rapidly.


Also read: More ‘Ladakh clashes’ emerge as India-China tension turns into social media battle


Incident 2: Indian troops ‘restrained’

This is where the second set of images becomes significant. Image 6 shows Indian troops (at least one quite seriously injured) being allegedly restrained by Chinese troops. This was geolocated to the west bank of Fox point, the peninsula seen in Image 7. There are two interesting features here: 1) note the face-masks on Chinese troops indicating this to be a post-Covid episode, and 2) the boat on the top left of the image, showing this incident to have been just 1-2 meters away from the waterline.

Image 6 via source | Image 7 via Apple maps | Image 8 courtesy Shadow Break Intl and Planet Labs | Abhijit Iyer Mitra
Image 6 via source | Image 7 via Apple maps | Image 8 courtesy Shadow Break Intl and Planet Labs | Abhijit-Iyer Mitra

Our study of Chinese boat activity in the region, showed only one episode of Chinese boats coming so far west during the last fortnight and that was at Fox point – the southernmost peninsula on the northern bank of Pangong Tso (Image 9). Fox point – an extension of finger 4 has a high ridge running on its western periphery. This ridge marks the LAC. The boats, as can be seen in image 8, were clearly on the Chinese western side of Fox point on 22 May.

Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

This is significant for three reasons. First, it shows considerable Indian activity west of the ITBP base, literally a day or two after the deep Chinese incursion described earlier. Second, it confirms that the Indian troops were ordered to proceed into the Chinese side of the LAC albeit not as deep as the Chinese incursion into India. Third, it confirms that by this time (22 May) there was no Chinese presence west of the LAC, putting paid to any rumours of an “occupation”. Moreover, it confirms our interpretation of Images 1 through 5, that the Chinese were doing rapid sweeps and testing Indian readiness in the area, not occupying it.


Also read: Video shows Indian troops challenging Chinese in Ladakh, but Army says ‘not authenticated’


Testing readiness

In the following articles in this series, we will explain the situation in Galwan and the Hotsprings (Gogra). However, for now, the conclusions as far as the Pangong area is considered are clear. Combined with previous reports, there has been a systemic pattern of testing readiness across the LAC in the Pangong area. This has led to what have so far been non-lethal scuffles, but clearly deep intrusion as described by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh (note his use of past tense). However, India has not been taking this lying down and its response has been robust, albeit not as exuberant as the Chinese

This is the first article in a three-part series, focussing on the Pangong area. Part 2 will focus on Galwan and part 3 on the Hotsprings/Gogra area. 

Abhijit Iyer-Mitra is senior fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. Views are personal.

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84 COMMENTS

  1. Mr Abhijit Mitra you are an educated person holding a Chair of repute. State factuals correctly . What is the date and source of the Pic ? Dont sell yourself.
    LAC is at Finger 8 and not Finger 4. It is another matter bthat ITBP post is at Finger 4 and Indian troops patrol to Finger 8.
    Also there are constructions made by China since mid April which materially alters the LAC . Where is that picture ?
    Your statement does not stand up to the facts of the case and are therefore junked. You are junk .
    For members who are following this get correct info from OSINT bt DetResFra,clean unbiased facts.

  2. Ladakh is historically Chinese.
    Muslim settled and peacefully co existed and traded with Buddhist and Chin civilisation.

    During Ranjit Singh when he was on favourable terms the Sikh Empire occupied Kashmir and entered a largely empty Ladakh

    It waa then that this ancient bhuddust region clearly Chinese territory was forced to be seen as part of Kashmir.

    The Quing Chinese empire defeated the Sikhs and sent them packing out of Ladakh.

    After the fall of Sikh Empire J& Kashmir was sold for a pittance to The non Kashmiri British lap dogs The Dogra.

    Ladakh was still keft outside of this until independence that India enjoined it to Kashmir and therefore like much of British India annexing Chinese territory like Tibet, Arunchal etch Ladakh to was wrong drawn up as part of India.

    • What history associates ladakh and Tibetan societies to Han Chinese!! It’s not the Chinese who brought Buddhism to Tibet ladakh, it actually went from India into Tibet then to China!! So India has a claim on your Chinese heartland…
      And as for Ladakh, it was a separate kingdom having political and religious Alliance with Tibet, have you heard of Guge-puran kingdom in western Tibet near north-east ladakh, they used to have regular territorial conflict with ladakh kingdom…
      And so for your information even Tibet that you filthy Han creatures have captured is an independent civilization who has nothing to do with Han Chinese, infact speaks and writes a language which is a form of old Tibetan language also known as trans Himalayan language, and their script is Indic in nature, read this

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibetan_script

      Only thing is some people from Tibet migrated to China to teach you to speak and you learnt a new language, the sino-tibetan languages came from old Tibetan, therefore you Chinese got a sophisticated and better language influencing your 3rd grade phonetic based language, and old Tibetan got it’s influence from even richer indic languages, and China got it’s Buddhism from India…so stop spreading your useless history like your worthless products…

  3. Why India is always on receiving end? If our soldiers had done the same thing with Chinese territory, China would have used bullets instead of muscle power. This shows our men are ill equipped to face Chinese. We are fighting for our rights on our Land here not a piece if China.

    • *Ahem* India did stop Chinese construction in Dokhlam, which is bhutanese territory considered by Chinese as their own. No bullets were fired.

  4. Mr Abhijit you are PROVIDING INCORRECT information . Chinese claim of LAC is till finger 4 while Indian LAC is till finger 8 and the current conflict at Pangong Tso is about Chinese not allowing indian troops to patrol till finger 8 while they are bringing their vehicles upto finger 4 . Your images and information are plain MISLEADING . Mr Shekhar Gupta and Mr Snehesh must correct him .

    • Rightly said, the article writer has given area from finger 4 to 8 to Chinese. This is totally incorrect. This has to be corrected. Most importantly, the article writer is even given justifications to the LAC. I as an Indian feeling very frustrated.

  5. He is right, as he said there is no occupation but incursion. & area between finger 5 to 8 is no mens land according to India but not according to China. China has already occupied the area between 5 to 8 in 1962 war theoretically on paper(map). & it’s true that Chinese troops were at finger 5 at the last day of war. Then they returned back to finger 8 after some talk. So after 1962 they always claimF4 as LAC & F 5 as Chinese terrotery to pressurise india. So actually abhijeet iyer mitra is right according to 1962 talk.

  6. You are too funny. The chinese gave rubbed your asses with your coward forces weeping. It’s all there in media. Your politicians have gone silent and military command gone to barrack….

  7. Even finger 1 to finger 8 are marked wrong in this article.
    Finger 5 shown in this article is actually Finger 8.
    And Yes China came inside the India’s Claim Line
    To get more clarity watch Pangong Tso -cause and effect by Stratnewsglobal.

  8. Since independence authorities are making fool of indian people.
    Only recently majority of ordinary people in india knew about pok
    Similarly with China .

    As per photo many indian soldier are badly injured by Chinese. In this case also ,authorities making fool of people

    Authorities in india saying that they will not let indian pride hurt.But indian soldiers are daily getting beaten by chinese

    Why whenever their is clash with pakis or china,it is indian soldier who is either caught or beaten

  9. Above mentioned is the correct information.
    The author does not even know where the Indian claim line is…..he is showing the Chinese claim line.
    And he has no info on finger 1 to finger 8.
    Finger 8 ( which is Indian claim line is portrayed as Finger 5 in this article)
    I don’t know how these guys are even allowed to even publish on such sensitive matters.
    CHECK VIDEO BY STRATNEWSGLOBAL ( PANGONG TSO – CAUSE AND EFFECT )

  10. Such a bullshit illustration.. You can’t just illustrate through satellite view. Visit Ladakh and ask the common people living in that territory. Don’t be a friend to animal eaters. The whole world is suffering just because of these Chinky Chinese. They just want to draw the attention of their own Chinese citizens to save Ass.. Don’t underestimate the Chinese Government. We Indian are very much aware what’s ours and what’s not. Even Nepal is behaving sick nowadays.

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