Modi’s nuclear threat is not the end of No First Use, it’s from Obama & Theresa May playbook

PM Narendra Modi’s nuclear mentions are part of a deterrence strategy that Pakistan has used to stop India from retaliating to terror attacks.

File photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi | Arvind Yadav/Hindustan Times via Getty Images

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s language of deploying nuclear weapons in an election rally in Rajasthan’s Barmer may not be the best, but it isn’t as if this was nuclear war mongering or that India has changed its nuclear doctrine to first-use.

This is a classic example of nuclear signalling that has been practised by the likes of former US president Barack Obama and UK Prime Minister Theresa May. Nuclear signalling is part of a well-established deterrence strategy.

This is the second time Modi has talked about nuclear weapons during the election campaign. In another rally 14 April, Modi had said that India has called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff when it struck Balakot in Pakistan. He said – “Pakistan and its supporters have been threatening us for long with its nuclear capability but the IAF called its bluff with its strikes. Those days are gone when India would give in to threats. This is a new India and it will strike terrorists well inside their hideouts across the border.”

Modi is not wrong. There are numerous instances of Pakistanis holding out the nuclear threat to signal India to not undertake any military action in response to terror attacks. They have an unwritten doctrine that has a low threshold for nuclear weapons use. And Balakot changed this template.

During the Kargil War, which was fought just after the 1998 nuclear test, India constrained itself to not cross the Line of Control (LoC) or expand it to other sectors, keeping in mind Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Similarly, in 2002, after the attack on Parliament, India mobilised the army under Operation Parakram. But once again, India held back with one of the reasons being Pakistan’s nuclear threat. Then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee is reported to have said, “Unke pass bomb hai (they, Pakistan, have nuclear bomb)”. Similarly, besides other reasons, nuclear weapons did play a role in India not taking any military action against Pakistan in response to the 26/11 Mumbai attacks in 2008.

Pakistan too has over the years repeatedly brandished its nuclear weapons through both its military and civilian leadership, and used them to prevent any military response to its terror war against India. This goes back to the 1980s when there was talk about India attacking Pakistan’s nuclear facilities in an Osirak type operation that Israel had conducted in Iraq in June 1981. Pakistan warned India of reprisal after it had acquired F-16s from the US. A similar threat was issued in 1987 when India conducted a large-scale military exercise named Brasstacks. At the height of the mobilisation in 2002, then Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf warned India that Pakistan will use nuclear weapons if a war broke out.

For a long time, Indian analysts and strategic thinkers have been saying that Pakistan is bluffing on the use of nuclear weapons and its supposed low threshold. Indian armed forces have been preparing to fight a war under a nuclear overhang. In fact, late last year, Army Chief General Bipin Rawat had said that it was time India calls Pakistan’s nuclear bluff.

So, what Modi did isn’t unusual. Barack Obama, who has won the Nobel Peace Prize for his promise to make the world free of nuclear weapons, even though he signed off on the largest nuclear modernisation program in the US history, was ready to strike North Korea to stop its nuclear programme.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May was asked in the British Parliament if she was ready to use nuclear weapons even if it led to the killing of hundreds of thousands of innocent men, women and children. She answered with an emphatic “Yes”. She went on to say that the whole point of deterrent is to let the enemy know that you are prepared to use them.

Pakistan has used it to prevent an Indian conventional response over the years. After the Pulwama attack, and days before the Balakot air strike, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan used the nuclear threat to prevent India’s response. He reportedly said in a statement – “Yeh kidhar jaegi baat, Allah behtar jaanta hai (Allah knows where things would end once the war begins)” while asking India to not consider any military action. This was a veiled nuclear thread. After the Balakot air strike, DG ISPR Asif Ghafoor brandished nuclear weapons when he said that Pakistan’s National Command Authority was going to meet. He said, “I hope you know what the NCA means and what it constitutes.”

India declared its no first-use policy after testing the nuclear weapons in 1998. Both the draft nuclear doctrine in 1999 and the final adopted nuclear doctrine in 2003 reiterated this position. India maintains that any use of nuclear weapons against it, even if it targets its soldiers with small yield nuclear weapons, will be responded with a massive retaliation.

This position is not considered credible by many analysts who say that the political leadership will be in a moral bind to take the decision to use nuclear weapons that will kill millions of civilians in response to an attack on its soldiers. Political credibility is an important factor for a credible nuclear deterrent. Modi has made it clear that any use of nuclear weapons will be responded to, which means massive retaliation as per India’s nuclear doctrine. This signalling is important to deter Pakistan or any adversary from using nuclear weapons against India, on its cities or on its military. This does not mean a shift to a first strike doctrine as many are trying to convey.

Modi’s use of words can be faulted and was avoidable. Far from becoming a nuclear flashpoint, the weeks since Balakot air strike have reinforced nuclear deterrence is in play preventing its use.

The author is the editor of Defence Forum India and a commentator on defence and strategic affairs. He tweets @YusufDFI. Views are personal.