Modi continues to be popular but his objective of a ‘Congress mukt Bharat’ might not be easy if Congress revives before the 2019 polls.
The year 2018 is crucial for many stakeholders. It is the year before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It is also the year which will shape 21st century India.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in his Independence Day speech that the year 2018 is significant for those born in the 21st century. He pointed out that the millennials would start turning 18 next year, and will shape the vision of a “new India”. He was eyeing the 139 million first-time voters by 2019.
Politically Modi will begin the year with optimism after his party’s recent win in his home state Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, but the road ahead may not be all that smooth. Though the BJP gained six states, including UP, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh but Gujarat was a close fight.
The Prime Minister knows that the year 2019 is not 2014 as the political lexicon has significantly changed. The upcoming polls will be a referendum on Modi’s achievement and not the Congress party’s failures. No doubt he continues to be popular but his objective of a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ might not be easy if the Congress revives before the 2019 polls. Gujarat showed such signs under the newly energised Congress president Rahul Gandhi.
With the success of the caste leaders in Gujarat, the Congress can create clones of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani in other states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Haryana as similar agitations can be organized in these states. The imponderables include a bad monsoon, a limited confrontation with a post-Doklam China or with Pakistan, or an oil shock. Modi cannot afford to incite political fights over sensitive reforms such as land and labour laws, triple talaq, or any other reform bills.
The next year is also important because of the mini-general elections scheduled for eight states. The BJP is currently ruling at the Centre, and in 19 states either on its own or with allies. The Congress is in power in Karnataka, Meghalaya and Mizoram while the BJP is ruling on its own in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Tripura is held by the CPI-M. In most of these states, there will be a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP.
The BJP is eyeing to grab at least four states — Karnataka, Mizoram, Meghalaya, and Nagaland, while the Congress wants to snatch Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. So, it is the year 2018, which will decide whether the Congress will revive.
Rahul Gandhi has a lot of positive notes to begin the New Year with: the Gujarat fight, the 2G acquittals, the relief for the Congress party in Adarsh verdict, and the recent civic election results in Rajasthan have come in favour of the Congress. Rahul would have to aim at taking the party to the finishing line and snatch at least three states — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — which together account for 63 Lok Sabha constituencies. His challenge is to build the organisation, develop second-rung leaders, come up with a new narrative and become a 24/7 politician. Will he able to do it?
The challenges for Modi in 2018 will be economy, job creation, and attracting more foreign investment. The IMF has observed this week: “The financial sector is facing considerable challenges, and economic growth has recently slowed down. High non-performing assets (NPAs) and slow deleveraging and repair of corporate balance sheets are testing the resilience of the banking system, and holding back investment and growth.”
Inflation is rising. Private sector investment is shrinking and fiscal pressures are re- asserting. The economic scenario does not look too bright. The budget on February 1 will give an indication. With assembly polls spread over almost the whole year, it is likely to be a soft populist budget. A newspaper this week quoted finance ministry officials saying the next budget will focus on farmers, rural jobs and infrastructure. For the first time, the budget might include an employment policy, which will focus on the creation of quality jobs across business sectors.
As for India’s foreign policy, the year will begin with a grand show of 10 ASEAN leaders witnessing the Republic Day parade in Delhi. It will be a busy year with many foreign visits scheduled, including the UAE, China, Argentina, South Africa, Singapore and Sri Lanka besides some multilateral meetings like the Commonwealth and G-20. The threat from China, Pakistani terror attacks, and improving ties with the US and Russia will be India’s main challenges in 2018 and beyond. New Delhi’s neighborhood policy is also under strain after a good start in 2014, as China is gaining more influence.
Altogether, Modi’s campaign for 2019 will begin from January itself. The BJP has a strong leadership, unlimited funds, a disciplined cadre, a dedicated poll mechanism and the media support. A united opposition may pose a threat but will there an opposition unity before 2019? It is a million-dollar question.
Kalyani Shankar is a columnist, former Political Editor of the Hindustan Times and former Washington correspondent of the Hindustan Times.