Later this year, BJP and Congress are getting ready to battle in three BJP-ruled states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and the Congress-ruled Mizoram.
Now that the Karnataka polls are over, what lies ahead politically? Already, the BJP and the Congress are getting ready with their ammunition to face elections this year-end in three BJP-ruled states — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — and Congress-ruled Mizoram. So, get ready for more rousing campaign speeches led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and counter-attacks by Congress chief Rahul Gandhi.
The Karnataka polls were seen as a teaser to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The full dress rehearsal will come by the year-end. Though the BJP has emerged as the single largest party with a huge jump in its seats in Karnataka, which way the four poll-bound states will go is anybody’s guess. For the BJP, it is important to retain Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. It’s a double whammy as both the Centre and these states are ruled by the BJP and they cannot fault the Congress during the campaign. The gap in the vote shares of the Congress and the BJP is very narrow. Smelling power, the Congress is making all efforts to unite anti-BJP forces.
At the national level, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be completing four years in office on 26 May, but the fifth year is really crucial. Will the BJP continue to rise unchecked? Will Modi face some tough challenges? Also, will Modi be able to address the economic concerns of the country and concentrate on the growth rate? Will he be able to contain the fringe elements in his party?
Modi has been working on his future from the day he took over four years ago, as he was hoping to pull off a hat trick and remain in power until 2024. The initial expectations from Modi were massive. He promised to wave his magic wand and set things right. His re-election cannot be ensured by just Congress-bashing as he has to explain why his promised ‘acche din’ are yet to come.
What was seen as a cakewalk till some months ago is now changing into a contest if (a very big if) the opposition unites. Though his personal popularity is still intact, the report card for his government’s performance bears mixed results. Also, there is an unfinished agenda. Modi’s strategy includes keeping the opposition divided, holding on and increasing the number of allies, expanding in the south, making people believe that he still has the magic wand, and wooing the 33 million new first time voters.
Politically, the BJP has seen a phenomenal growth and emerged as the largest party, overtaking the 132-year-old congress party in the last four years. The BJP, on its own or with its allies, is ruling in 22 of India’s 29 states. The BJP has overtaken the Congress in the Rajya Sabha. It is the richest party in India. The cadres are strong.
However, at home, many things — the Nirav Modi scam, the Supreme Court’s dilution of the SC/ST Act and the resultant Dalit rage, traders’ woes on account of the GST, the Unnao and Kathua rapes, the agrarian crisis and farmer suicides, judicial crisis and the Kashmir issue, to name a few — have been haunting the Modi government. Will he be able to complete his unfinished agenda and tackle core issues like Article 370, construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, and the uniform civil code?
The problem comes on the economic side. The Indian economy today nurses serious weaknesses despite a high rate of GDP growth. Though the government has launched several schemes to boost the economy, like Make in India, Start-Up India, and Digital India, and achieved success on fronts like rural electrification and road building, jobs remain a disappointment.
Modi’s biggest challenge is to create enough jobs to satisfy the youth. This is compounded by the agrarian crisis. The Nirav Modi scam has exposed the faults in the banking system. Electoral reforms are long overdue. A Lokpal is yet to be appointed. Judicial and police reforms are much needed. Many other schemes have been stalled by bureaucratic inertia. In short, will the Prime Minister be able to complete his agenda? Will he be able to convince voters that he needs another term to fulfil his promises? Nearer 2019, the BJP has to spin a new narrative in place of ‘achhe din’.
On the whole, the months preceding the next Lok Sabha elections will be full of action with political parties sharpening their poll strategy, stitching alliances and working out populist schemes. They have already switched to poll mode.