J&K’s delimitation was Modi govt’s top priority 5 months ago. Now it’s nowhere in sight

BJP knows that unless Kashmir’s dominance over Jammu ends inside J&K assembly, anything Modi govt does will fall short of Jammu voters’ expectations.

Representational image | Security forces stand guard in Srinagar | Photo: Praveen Jain | ThePrint

The logical step for the BJP after scrapping the special status of Kashmir is said to be delimitation of constituencies and redrawing the political map of the region. But now it appears that it can’t be done anytime soon.

Ever since Narendra Modi assumed office for the second term, with BJP chief Amit Shah as the Home Minister, Jammu and Kashmir has been his government’s focus. The BJP has used J&K’s controversial special category status to drum up support across India. The issue of alleged discrimination of the Hindu-majority Jammu region by the Muslim-majority Kashmir has remained the centrepiece of the BJP’s, and its earlier avatar Jan Sangh’s, political tune for decades.

It finally culminated in the passage of Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019 in Parliament, which resulted in changes to the special category status and bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories – Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh.

But the BJP wasn’t done. It decided to end Kashmir’s political dominance over Jammu by redrawing the political map of the erstwhile state via delimitation.

Section 62 of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019 mentions a fresh delimitation exercise to redraw J&K’s parliamentary and assembly constituencies.

There were indications that fresh assembly election would be held only after the delimitation exercise is complete. The BJP and the RSS leadership had assumed this exercise would also take care of the thorny issue of Kashmir’s dominance over Jammu.

However, months after J&K’s bifurcation, there is no movement on the ground to start the delimitation exercise. In fact, there seems to be a clear move to delay the exercise until the 2021 Census is over.

And here’s what could be driving the Modi government’s stance on the delimitation exercise.

Kashmir would still get more seats

As per Section 62(2) of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, any delimitation exercise would have to be conducted as per the “Census held in the year 2011”.

At that time, Jammu and Kashmir was India’s only Muslim-majority state – 68.31 per cent Muslims and 28.44 per cent Hindus.

But more than religion, the bigger issue is the regional imbalance – of the total 1.25 crore population, Kashmir is home to 68.94 lakh people while Jammu has 53.50 lakh people. As many as 17 of the 22 districts in Jammu and Kashmir are Muslim-majority.

In the previous 87-member House of undivided J&K, Kashmir had 46 legislators while Jammu region had 37 MLAs. And, since any delimitation would have to be as per the 2011 Census, there won’t be much change in the composition of the new assembly.

The BJP knows very well that unless Kashmir’s dominance over Jammu ends inside the assembly, anything that the Modi government does would fall short of the expectations of its vote bank in Jammu region.

Fresh delimitation may be legally impermissible

In 2002, then Farooq Abdullah government in J&K amended Section 47(3) of the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir as well as the Jammu and Kashmir Representation of the People Act, 1957 to put a freeze on any delimitation exercise until 2026.

With the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019 facing a challenge before a five-judge bench of the Supreme Court, any move to recast the structure of the assembly could fall afoul of the judiciary and ultimately be struck down.

In any case, a decision to start delimitation before 2026 would be open to judicial scrutiny.

Census can’t be done early

The next nationwide census is scheduled for 2021. It may not be prudent to conduct a census only for Jammu and Kashmir at this point.

Also, delimitation is a long-drawn process, which would require immense manpower and resources. If the Modi government decides to hold fresh elections in the next six months or so, the delimitation exercise can’t be initiated.

The author is a senior journalist. Views are personal.