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India’s Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan ignored China all along. Time to fix it now

While India has never used its control over the origins of Indus as a weapon in conflicts, the same cannot be said of China and Pakistan.

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New Delhi’s missive to Islamabad asking for modification of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty could not have come at a worse time for Pakistan, which is reeling under economic crisis and sectarian killings. The treaty was always a bone of contention between the two countries, observed more in its violation by Pakistan.

As per the provisions of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), India controls the waters of eastern rivers Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej while Pakistan controls waters of western rivers Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum, amounting to 20 and 80 percent of total water carried by the Indus System respectively.

Considering the geographic area and the population disparity between the two countries, India should have been able to use maximum water from the Indus River & Basin System. India adhered to the provisions of the IWT and refrained from doing anything that would amount to violation.

Yet, Pakistan approached the World Bank, the official arbitrator according to the treaty, twice on what could be considered unsubstantiated charges. Pakistan was probably apprehensive of two factors. One was that India could use the Indus River System as a tool against Pakistan in the event of hostilities. Another issue that troubles Pakistan is the influence and credibility of India compared to Pakistan, which, to say the least, is in the negative.

India has never sought to use water as a tool in any of the wars imposed on it by Islamabad. As for India’s credibility and capabilities to handle issues at the international level, well, Islamabad has a point. No one prevented Pakistan to behave and gain the confidence of the global community instead of emerging as a failed state full of mercenary terrorist groups and a heaven for non-state actors.

The Indus River, which forms Indus basin, has nine tributaries flowing through Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, and Tibet (now under Chinese occupation). While the 1960 treaty only considers India and Pakistan, the acts of commission and omission of China vis-à-vis the Indus Basin cannot be overlooked.


Also read: Tensions with China-Pakistan can derail fragile water treaties, but India won’t talk about it


Time to relook at 1960 treaty

After a series of treaties and agreements and border determination talks with China, Tibet, and Russia, the British in 1892 settled on a policy that their preferred boundary for Kashmir was the “Indus watershed”, i.e., the water-parting from which waters flow into the Indus River system on one side and into the Tarim basin on the other. In the north, this water-parting was along the Karakoram Range. In the east, it was more complicated because the Chip Chap River, Galwan River and the Chang Chenmo River flow into the Indus whereas the Karakash River flows into the Tarim basin. A boundary alignment along this water-parting was defined by Victor Bruce (Viceroy of India from 1894 to 1899) and communicated to London.

After the tragic Partition, India got embroiled in land and water disputes with Pakistan over Kashmir, and with China on Aksai Chin and Karakoram Range as also the areas adjoining Galwan and other river-flow terrain in Ladakh valley. Thus, both Ladakh and PoK becomes important geographies in determining the resolution of the water-sharing solutions not only between India and Pakistan but also with China.

While India has never used its control over the origins of Indus as a weapon in conflicts, the same cannot be said of China and Pakistan. China as the upper riparian state of many transboundary riverine systems has the ability to manipulate the water flows to the lower riparian states. China has refrained from sharing water discharge data with India and other lower riparian countries. As the upper riparian of the Indus system of six rivers, India concluded the treaty in 1960 with Pakistan with no mention of the areas under Chinese occupation or ceded to China by Pakistan. China not only refuses equitable distribution but has also initiated major dam-building projects in its occupied territory affecting the flow of Brahmaputra. A study developed through reliable method based on satellite data from 1992 to 2019 that predicts the natural flow of the Upper Mekong, suggests how the cascade of dams built on the Upper Mekong by China is altering the natural flow of the river.

With its total control over Tibet, the “Water Tower of Asia”, China has complete and unhindered access to major river basins like Indus, Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet), Salween, Mekong, and Sutlej impacting India, Pakistan, Bhutan, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. China’s dam-building activities seriously affect water flow in Indus and Sutlej besides Brahmaputra. China has constructed dams/barrages both on the Indus and Sutlej Rivers. These include the Senge Tsangpo and Nagri Shiquanhe hydropower stations on the Indus River and a barrage across the Zada Gorge on the Sutlej River. It is also constructing the Basha and Bunji dams on the Indus River in the Gilgit-Baltistan region. These construction activities can seriously damage the ecological balance in the Himalayas, increase glacier melting and affect the flow of the rivers.

China’s National Energy Administration will oversee the funding of $50 billion to Pakistan under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to build five dams by China Three Gorges Corporation termed as Indus River Cascade as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

In the current geopolitical context, the unholy nexus between China and Pakistan through CPEC exposes new dimensions as far as the Indus Water Treaty is concerned and seriously impacts security and national interest of not only India but the whole of South Asia, necessitating an urgent relook of the 1960 treaty.

Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.

(Edited by Prashant)

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