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HomeOpinionHow Sweden's 'model' Covid strategy collapsed due to arrogance in scientific approach

How Sweden’s ‘model’ Covid strategy collapsed due to arrogance in scientific approach

In episode 488 of #CutTheClutter, Shekhar Gupta explains why Sweden's Covid model, which was once hailed as the ideal, collapsed due to arrogant thinking.

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New Delhi: Long held as the ideal model for fighting coronavirus, the rising death toll in Sweden is testament to the fact that even countries that rely on science and have the best public health systems can suffer if they get arrogant with the virus, ThePrint Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta said in episode 488 of ‘Cut The Clutter’.

With about 4,562 deaths and over 41,800 people infected, Sweden has turned into one of the worst-faring developed countries.

Gupta said that Sweden approached the virus with a sense of arrogance thinking that they know best and now, the country is paying for it.

“A dictator can be arrogant with the virus, a democrat can be arrogant with the virus and a modern rich, socialist system — relying on science — can also be arrogant with the virus. But with this virus, you need humility,” said Gupta.

The Sweden model

For quite some time, Sweden has been held out as a ‘model’ of a number of things.

The country is held as a model of great socialism. It also sets an example as a country with the finest public health system in the world.

Lately, Sweden has been considered the model for dealing with the coronavirus crisis.

“Sweden followed a method that was different from the rest of the world, and particularly different from the rest of Europe,” Gupta said.

The country, which has a high per capita income of $58,000, has a very low population density of about 25 people per square kilometre.

Sweden decided early on, when countries were debating over how to deal with it, that they will not go for a countrywide lockdown.

Instead, they put in place voluntary social distancing and bans on non-essential travel. Social gatherings were restricted to under 50 people, and people were advised not to visit old age care homes.

How other countries dealt with the virus

“India decided on a draconian full lockdown for three weeks. Three more weeks after that, it is slowly opening up. Now we’re opening up a little bit more so six weeks of complete draconian lockdown,” Gupta said.

On the other hand, some countries decided to have a partial lockdown, for example Pakistan.

Countries like the US and the UK, initially thought that there was no need for lockdown, but soon enough they realised it was not working.

With the trend of infectivity in UK, it was thought that the country would have been better off staying with the initial idea proposed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his advisors of going for herd immunity.

They wanted to achieve this herd immunity by asking old people to stay at home while letting young people go out and get infected.

“A few will die but in the process, a large enough percentage will get immune and thereby they will give the entire population herd immunity,” said Gupta.

“Britain initially started on this plan, but when infections went up and the death toll started rising, they lost their nerve and went back to the idea for lockdown,” he added.

Brazil was held as the worst example, where President Jair Bolsonaro dismissed the disease as a ‘little flu’.

On the other hand, South Korea was a country that was held out as a model for the whole world. It tested a large number of people and was able to block the virus very fast.

The country employed one person to track every contact. Any contact that disappeared from sight or was not traceable for even a few hours was fined $10,000.

The other model that was seen to have worked was New Zealand. In fact, the success of the country started a whole clamour about Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, with people taking to social media hailing her as the one who should be the leader of the world, said Gupta.

What did Sweden do?

Sweden followed the advice of its state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell who said that there is no need for a nationwide lockdown.

The country trusted its citizens to follow social distancing guidelines and put some restrictions on social gatherings, intercity travel, and visits to care homes for older people.

“It did look like for some time that they were doing all right,” Gupta said.

Compared to the UK, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, France, Italy — all of its neighbouring countries that had imposed a lockdown — Sweden seemed to be doing much better.

“Now, I’d say that the Swedish model is unraveling. And there’s a reason why I talk about Sweden and why it’s relevant for us,” he said.

Sweden went with the advice from its well-reputed chief epidemiologist and bent against the flow. They went in the direction opposite of all developed country peers.

“Today Sweden has had 4,542 deaths in a population of one crore. In fact, if you just extrapolate this to India’s population, for example, it would be equal 5,56,000 deaths,” Gupta said.

This is despite the fact that Sweden is 30 times richer than India and with a much lower population density. It has the world’s best public health care system, the finest doctors and the most aware population.

All these mathematical models of epidemiological studies on viral spread were based on viruses that we had known earlier, this is a new kind of virus. And perhaps these mathematical models don’t apply to this virus.

What happened in countries that followed lockdown?

The death toll in Denmark, Finland and Norway is 580, 321, and 237 respectively. Each country has a population of about 50 lakh — about half the population of Sweden.

If the European countries are compared based on deaths per million, Belgium is the highest with 833. UK is the second highest at 597. Spain is the third worst at 580. Italy comes fourth with 556 and the fifth worst is Sweden with 446 per million and still rising.

“Other countries have had their lockdowns, they are opening up. They’ve suffered the economic damage in those lockdowns, but they are now opening up and their economies are opening up and their fatality rates are not dropping quite steeply,” said Gupta.

In Sweden, on the other hand, the lockdown is still not there. They decided to go the herd immunity way. Their fatality rates per million are catching up with the worst in the world and the deaths are not declining.

They’ve already suffered economic damage. Sweden’s finance minister Magdalena Anderson has now said that its GDP decline this year will be about 7 per cent. According to her, this will be the worst year of Sweden’s economy since World War II.

“The world’s most likely country to succeed with herd immunity has shown you that herd immunity has been a disaster for it,” he added.

Science and arrogance

Tegnell, himself, recently admitted that the model has gone wrong. Earlier, in April, he had told the BBC that the high death toll was because old age homes were not able to stop the virus from coming in there but this does not disqualify their strategy.

“So once you get wedded to an idea, it’s very difficult to break off. And that’s when you continue to compound your errors,” Gupta said.

Tegnell later told Swedish media that if they were to encounter the same disease again, knowing exactly what we know about it today, they would settle on something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done.

Norway’s public health chief Frode Forland also said that Sweden got caught up too much into historical models of viruses.

Tegnell’s predecessor Anika Lindy, said that Sweden’s response was all wrong.

According to her, Sweden should have announced an early lockdown and care homes should have been sealed. They should also have been more intensive in testing and tracing.

“Sometimes you can become a prisoner to dogma or ideology. Dogma in science is also bad. Politicians who don’t listen to scientists go wrong, but politicians who only listen to scientists also go wrong, because science is not absolute,” said Gupta.

“There are different points of view in science so leaders have to listen to everybody and then arrive at a thoughtful decision,” he added.

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20 COMMENTS

  1. It’s seem to early to make judgements, Mr Sekhar Gupta should bring the theme with science eyes and not with obvious judgment. The virus still there and we have to wait the end to see which country did the best job. Here in India, I can see such damage in poor area and it will get worst because they don’t have food and consequently no immunity. The funny is the news are scared to tell the true in India. Or it is just a government who is controlling the media and censuring the blogs, you tubers who are complaint the less compatibility.

  2. Utterly nonsense. I can only imagine the world political pressure coming to bare on Sweden for refusing to tow the line. 10 million people live there and i believe they have the highest percentage in the world living in nursing homes at 19%. Reduce the death total accordlingly and recalculate. Lowest percentage on the planet, which i predicted at the outset based on political deciet and lies dating to March 17 that ive found so far. No other virus in history has ever been tracked this much so you cant compare, but even so it shows to be no worse than any other. Look for yourselves at how many last year contracted, were hospitalized, and how many died and compare those numbers. Ridiculous how people are allowing this to happen. The same tactics are being used to justify both Gulf Wars and Afghanistan. Bin Ladin is dead. Did America leave? No and now the children of those first deployed are over there. Sweden beginning to mature as a culture and is therefore a threat to everyone else, making them look bad. Abandoning Socialism and by angrily refusing to labeled Socialist they now have marked themselves a target.

  3. There were much more issues behind the Swedish decision which are completely missing from the article, like the social impact of a lockdown. The 7% recession is mostly caused by the European closures, on the other hand many small businesses have survived without bankruptcy which means smaller need for financial aid and less debt. There is also the question of reopen but when. Most of Europe has seen an increase in infection upon reopening. The death toll could be misleading, too as Sweden treats every death with minimal suspicion to Corona as Corona death, while other countries are tricking with the numbers. There’s a New York Times article on that issue. And at last there is a moral question. Countries will go in tremendous debts to get their economies back on track. Our grandchildren will pay for that, too. The states have never ever done their best to save everyone’s life. There are several terminal illnesses and funding researches for such a debt could have saved 1000 times more lives then we save now. But we didn’t get in debt for them. Are those who are endangered by Corona worth more than those who died in let’s say cancer? After race or religion is the next classification of people by possible cause of death? We do everything to save one from Corona but let many more die on other causes. Disgusting

  4. This article is nonsense..!! The writer has to talk to Swedish resident and not somebody else. We don’t need your view..!!

    • Sweden has learned a great lesson from this. Many Swedes now know how dishonest, manipulative, and vile much of the European MSM are, and many Swedes will have more critical thinking in the future.

  5. Why need for this opinion artical. When same thing explains better by shekhar ji . In cut the clutter. And ever author of this article not adding any new thing just quoting Shekharji

  6. So less deaths, no lockdowns, hmm seems like a much better outcome, and all the countries death rates are rising and netherlands is a close 6th. Over 4100 of their deaths so far are over 70, 1181 over 90, lockdowns are a failure, agenda driven groupthink, fueled by blowhard megaphones like this

  7. So less deaths, no lockdowns, hmm seems like a much better outcome, and all the countries death rates are rising and netherlands is a close 6th. Over 4100 of their deaths so far are over 70, 1181 over 90, lockdowns are a failure, agenda driven groupthink, fueled by blowhard megaphones like this.

  8. This is not really what had happened in Sweden. We where on the curve mid April (most deaths 15th of April and most hospitalizations 25th of April) and since that we have had a steady drop of deaths and people needing care.
    The number of new reported cases has not gone down but that’s mostly because we have start testing a lot more and catching many more mild cases now. The testing among health workers to keep the infection out of hospitals etc has ramped up good now.

    Our excess mortality is down at normal levels since a week back. We still still have people dying with corona but we also count all people with the virus as covid deaths even if they have other death causes.

    Our hospitals was never owerwhelmed. That was the main strategy.

    To be able to critizise Swedens way of handling this you actually have to know about what has happened here and how we have handled it. Not just guess and go by rumors.
    There are mistakes and of course everything is not perfect, but what is written here is mostly wrong or with insufficient information around it.

    • You have a point. Sweden’s case is far better if compared to countries like India, USA and Brazil. But apples should be compared with apples and not with oranges. Sweden’s confirmed cases curve is rising compared steadily with growth rate per day around just 1.5%. If India attains this low level growth rate, we shall dance with joy. Moreover majority of 30000 active cases are with mild symptoms. But deaths are continuing. On 5th June, Sweden had more than 1000 deaths. Compare Sweden with Denmark not with India. Denmark’s active cases curve has declined steeply and confirmed cases curve has almost flattened. How did they manage that?

    • A correction. On 5th June, Sweden had new infections of 1054 cases and deaths of 77 persons. A bad day, nevertheless.

  9. It is wrong to say that. It is misinterpreted due to their humility and self criticism. Indian approach is arrogant.

  10. The Left always lies. Sweden in NOT a socialist country. It is a CAPITALIST country with generous welfare benefits. Don’t fool people.

  11. Sweden has a high standard of living so people live a long time. More than 3000 of the Swedish deaths were over 70 and less than 200 people under 60 died. Suggestion: Adults take 1 gram of BHT (a common food preservative) if they feel a little ill. BHT kills both bacteria and viruses. Unlike other countries with lockdowns the Swedish economy is not wrecked. I think the media criticism of Sweden’s and Brazil’s corona policies is primarily because they will make many countries with lockdowns look bad. Time will tell.

  12. This article is an eye opener. It tells us that over-reliance on any mathematical or theoretical based model has inherent risks attached. In the months of March, all major European countries were suffering heavily due to an unexpected pandemic onslaught that was totally unfamiliar and unexpected. Many of them followed the lockdown method; but Sweden didn’t. Sweden stuck to the herd immunity theory. In the meanwhile, other European countries paid heavy price in terms of loss of life and speedy rise in number of infections. But within a period of less than two months , concrete results started flowing in. Growth rates in confirmed cases declined. More than the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases which is a historically progressive number, more important was the situation pertaining to active cases- i.e. Confirmed cases – ( cured cases +deaths), which is the position prevailing as on the date or the current load on the healthcare system. This can also be interpreted as the net result arising out of efforts made by the healthcare system to cure patients. The active cases reached peak in April for most of the countries and thereafter started falling. This was the turning point. Sweden never witnessed this turning point and its curve is rising continuously, albeit at a slow pace. Countries like France, Italy, Spain etc. have now reopened their economies
    I may conclude that the common sense method is most suitable to follow while dealing with a treacherous and unpredictable virus like corona. Medical professionals, scientists, epidemiologists, mathematicians, economists etc. will be having their own valid viewpoints. Someone is required at the helm to balance these and adopt common sense, practical decision making.

  13. This is what happens when you have people untrained in science trying to sit on judgement on a scientist’s actions. Sweden was not arrogant – it just took a different approach. In science one always looks for a way to do things differently. That is how science has progressed. If Alexander Graham Bell would have had people like you advising him, today we would still be communicating with the help of pigeons.
    What happens if tomorrow after lockdown is lifted Finland, Norway and Denmark catch up to Sweden’s mortality figures. What happens if Sweden’s GDP recovers much faster and continues to do better for the next ten years because they would be left with a slightly younger population? India started with an early lockdown – but even after that we are well on our way to becoming one of the top Covid affected countries.
    The Swedish Chief Epidemiologist was infact humble enough to acknowledge that he could have done better. That is science. One learns so that it can be applied to some other scenario. Contrast that with India where no one has apologised for an experiment called demonitisation which achieved none of its objectives. The Swedish one atleast let them keep their economy open and businesses solvent. Mr Gupta you are a fine journalist but commenting on a scientist’s work isn’t your forte.

  14. We will not know which model epidemiologically worked until an year has passed and we calculate the excess deaths. But one this is sure we went back 20 years economically. Which is particularly bad for a country like India.

    For the the middle class panic fueled by elitist press is to blame.

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