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Despite ‘Modi wave’ in Karnataka, it’s too early to write off opposition parties for 2019

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Karnataka is the last politically significant Congress-ruled state swept by the ‘Modi wave’ that started in 2014.

The Karnataka poll results might have delivered another blow to the already battered Congress and re-validated Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s undiminished mass appeal, but it’s too early to write off the opposition parties in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

First, Karnataka is the last politically significant Congress-ruled state — discounting Mizoram that will go to polls in December – swept by the ‘Modi wave’ that started in 2014.

This wave is at its destructive best in states where the Congress faces anti-incumbency, which is amplified by the hopes and dreams that Modi brings — something like what the United States witnessed when Barack Obama entered the presidential race in 2008. In one state after another, people were overwhelmed by Modi’s persona and development narrative, subtly blended with Hindutva and realignment of castes.

But the Modi wave has shown signs of ebbing in states where the BJP faced anti-incumbency, as was evident in Punjab and Goa.

If the BJP manages to form the government in Karnataka, it will be the 22nd state where it will be in power. But there is another side to this shining trophy. If one discounts the party’s performance in the four poll-bound states — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram — the BJP will also be facing double anti-incumbency in 22 states in 2019. This would be clear by December, when the first three BJP-ruled states mentioned above go to polls. So, the results of the next round of assembly elections, and not that of Karnataka, are likely to give a better picture. Having said that, it’s a fact that Modi is still the most popular leader in the country, and there is no challenger visible on the horizon yet.

Second, the Modi wave works the best in a multi-polar electoral contest. As one witnessed in the 2015 Bihar assembly elections, a mahagathbandhan or grand alliance of parties representing different caste groups effectively neutralised the impact of the Modi wave. In Karnataka, post-poll analysis suggests that if the Congress and the JD(S) had stitched a pre-poll alliance, they would have secured about 150 seats in the 222-member assembly. A mahagathbandhan of anti-BJP parties at the national level could be a formidable force in 2019. But not many are still inclined to place their bets on the formation of such an alliance, given the competing and conflicting interests of stakeholders.

Third, surveys have indicated that a majority of people are happy with the performance of the NDA government at the Centre. But the same surveys also suggest that the number of people who are disappointed with the government is increasing. The BJP will be confronted with tough questions — such as job creation, farm distress, black money, and atrocities against Dalits — when it seeks a renewed mandate from the people in 2019.

Fourth, the NDA virtually swept north and west India in 2014 — 73 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, 42 out of 48 in Maharashtra, 25 out of 25 in Rajasthan, and so on. The ruling coalition may find it very difficult to retain all these seats in 2019. The BJP has made great strides in the northeast, but the region sends only 25 members to the Lok Sabha. The party is making aggressive forays into other states such as West Bengal, Odisha, and Kerala. But it hasn’t reached the stage where it could hope to get substantial gains in these states to make up for the likely losses in the north and the west.

There may be more imponderables confronting the BJP in the coming months. But Modi remains the X-factor in Indian politics. Conventional logic may not be of much help when it comes to predicting how this factor will play out in 2019.

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