China observed a slump in spending during its week-long Golden Week holidays. Chinese Communist Party member Wang Yang could be the next premier. An old article gives insight into President Xi Jinping’s thought process. The United States takes a series of actions against Chinese companies. India abstains on the Xinjiang vote at the United Nations. Chinascope brings you the context and the subtext of the latest developments from China – and the world.
China over the week
People in mainland China may have been away from work because of the Golden Week, or National Day holidays, but the week was far from quiet in terms of political developments.
China’s National Day holiday spending experienced a slump this year, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. The tourism revenue fell by 26 per cent to $40.3 billion over the week-long holidays, and the overall revenue this year was down by nearly 56 per cent, worse than the 40 per cent decline in 2021. It is an indicator of the Chinese economy — and it looks bad.
The economic gloom, though, doesn’t suggest that President Xi Jinping is set to course correct. He is just getting started.
“But early indications suggest Xi is preparing to ramp up, not tamp down, his policy ambitions after the meeting. In the last year, Xi has intensified policy initiatives to promote China’s vision of global development and security as well as an ambitious drive to deliver ‘common prosperity’ by tackling inequality at home,” wrote Christian Shephard and Eva Dou in The Washington Post.
As we are less than a week away from the 20th Party Congress, China watchers have shared their predictions on Premier Li Keqiang’s replacement. Consensus seems to be emerging on Wang Yang, CCP member and chairman of Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Wang previously served as vice-premier of the State Council until 2018 under Li Keqiang and has the type of administrative experience required to step into the shoes of a premier.
The crackdown on officials for corruption charges in the last two weeks has signalled that Xi may not allow a more radical candidate like Hu Chunhua, from the league faction, to become the next premier. Wang Yang’s appointment would be a compromise as the fate of allies like Shanghai Communist Party chief Li Qiang has declined after the bungled Covid response.
“This clearly was a warning . . . against overt acts of factionalism and disobeying Xi Jinping diktats in the run-up to the 20th party congress, and beyond,” Victor Shih, professor of Chinese political economy at the University of California, wrote in Financial Times.
The political nature of the corruption charges is evident from the citing of the ‘political gang’ seen as the remaining vestige of ‘opposition’ to Xi. China watchers have even suggested that out of the remaining members of the Communist Youth League, Li Keqiang and Hu Chunhua, only one may remain on the Politburo Standing Committee.
The detention and prosecution of top Chinese officials continue.
According to Supreme People’s Procuratorate, Sheng Guangzu, former chief of the China State Railway Group, has been arrested for corruption.
Meanwhile, Eva Dou, a Washington Post reporter based in China, has discovered an article in a Fujian library written by 36-year-old Xi Jinping soon after the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.
“We must oppose those who, under the guise of freedom of creation, use literature and art as a political tool to promote bourgeois liberalization, and repudiate the lines, directives, and policies of the Party and negate the leadership of the Party,” Xi had written. “Another point of view that must be opposed and overcome is the pursuit of pure art. This view promotes detachment from politics and reality. Literary and artistic works created with this prejudice are often difficult or pale because they are disconnected from life and politics,” Xi further wrote. The complete translation of the essay can be found here.
Xi’s interest in order and control is exactly what makes him different from Mao, a lazy comparison that people continue to make. “Mao thrives in chaos; Xi is a man of order and control,” wrote Yuen Yuen Ang, professor of political science at the University of Michigan.
Also read: A flag, a theatre—On Chinese Martyrs’ Day, PLA’s signal to India across Ladakh, Sikkim
China in world news
Taking a leaf from former President Donald Trump’s playbook, the Joe Biden administration in the US took a series of actions against Chinese companies this past week.
On Friday, the US Department of Defence added 13 new Chinese companies to an investment ban. The notable companies included drone maker DJI, surveillance Zhejiang Dahua Technology, and gene databank BGI Genomics Co Ltd.
DJI had previously managed to dodge the entity list ban, but Washington is ready to tighten the restrictions on it after Russian forces allegedly used the DJI drones in Ukraine. In July 2021, Pentagon said DJI was a “potential threats to national security” after reports suggested Washington may let the Chinese drone off the hook.
“The only thing [sanctions] does is to prompt more companies to completely give up cooperating with the US, and to build a new ecosystem that does not involve the US,” said Lu Chuanying, director at the Research Centre of Global Cyberspace Governance of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.
In yet another action, the US Commerce Department introduced export controls to restrict Chinese semiconductor companies from using US technology to develop advanced military technology. The aim of the export control was to prevent Chinese companies from developing supercomputers with military applications in fields such as modelling nuclear weapons, including hypersonic missiles.
The US took another action against Chinese companies. It added Chinese chip maker Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd and 30 other companies to an ‘unverified trade list’. The ‘verified trade list’ is a list of companies the US officials have been unable to inspect, and companies included have a 60-day deadline to cooperate with Washington.
This series of actions suggests that Washington’s strategy vis-à-vis China is to slow down its ability to bootstrap innovation by acquiring US technology – something that started under Trump’s presidency.
India’s vote at the United Nations was once again in the news over the week. India abstained from voting to discuss China’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims at the UN Human Rights Council. The decision raised questions about India’s position on Xinjiang, as many called on New Delhi to act on the human rights violations.
“India remains committed to upholding all human rights. India’s vote is in line with its long-held position that country specific resolutions are never helpful. India favours a dialogue to deal with such issues,” said Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Arindam Bagchi.
India has maintained the position that issues of human rights violations should be debated and discussed in a bilateral setting rather than at multilateral platforms like the UNHRC.
But there is more to India’s abstention. By abstaining from voting on the issue, it signalled that it wouldn’t allow China to use a similar kind of vote against New Delhi over Kashmir in the future.
Must read this week
How We Would Know When China Is Preparing to Invade Taiwan — John Culver
How a Chinese Doctor Who Warned of Covid-19 Spent His Final Days — Muyi Xiao, Isabelle Qian, Tracy Wen Liu and Chris Buckley
Xi Jinping’s quest for total control of China is just getting started — Christian Shepherd and Eva Dou
Xi Jinping’s Quest for Order — Sheena Chestnut Greitens