China revealed its latest growth figure for 2022. The defence budget increased and a Chinese military expert cited tensions in the “southwest” — India border—for this upward revision. Chinascope brings you the major stories from China and the world.
China over the week
Reading the tea leaves of Chinese elite politics isn’t a task for the faint-hearted. Lianghui session is an annual event that every China watcher pays attention to.
The lianghui, or the “two sessions”, is the annual gathering of China’s two major political bodies, the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). Delegates from across China — from both political bodies — have gathered in Beijing on 4 March. The NPC is meeting between 5 and 11 March with ten agenda items under discussion.
Premier Li Keqiang announced the GDP target at the opening session of the NPC. The focus of this year’s lianghui was the domestic economy, unlike the last annual session where the issue of foreign forces and national security were central.
At the opening of the NPC session, the premier presents the government’s “work report,” which sets the economic and other targets for the year ahead.
“We are very clear about the problems and challenges before us,” Li told 3,000 deputies of the NPC. He also added that China would create 11 million new urban jobs and keep the unemployment rate under 5.5 per cent.
The hashtag “2022 two sessions” was viewed 110 million times on Weibo within 24 hours.
Another figure that caught the world’s attention was China’s defence spending. China revealed that the annual military budget would increase by 7.1 per cent, outstripping the GDP target. The country will spend 1.45 trillion yuan ($230 billion) on defence in what is being called a “reasonable increase”. In 2018, the Chinese defence budget increased by 8.1 per cent and 2019 was marked by an increase of 7.5 per cent.
A Chinese military expert justified this boost to military spending and veiled reference to tensions with India as challenges in the “southwest”.
“Overseas interests are now a part that cannot be ignored. We need a strong national defence force to maintain peace and stability in Asia-Pacific to provide a favourable external environment for our economic development. On the other hand, we have to consider the security and development needs of the country. For example, we face challenges in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the southwest. This is something we must also consider,” said Chinese military expert Fu Qianshao.
The Ukraine invasion may have come as a surprise to China’s political elites, but attempts were made this past week to smother the geopolitical headwinds.
Wang Yi, Chinese foreign minister, signalled to his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba that China might mediate in the Russia-Ukraine war. The Chinese foreign ministry statement cited Kuleba’s request for China to mediate a ceasefire. “On the current crisis, China calls on Ukraine and Russia to find a solution through negotiations and supports all constructive international efforts that are conducive to a political settlement,” said Wang Yi.
On Saturday, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to Wang Yi about the war in Ukraine. “…all countries’ sovereignty and territorial integrity should be respected, and China welcomes negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to resolve the crisis”, Wang Yi said during the call, according to a readout by CGTN, a state-run cable network.
But Yun Sun, a Chinese foreign policy expert, believes China is unlikely to act on the mediation suggestion.
“[Beijing] will not give the world the satisfaction of opposing Russia. Putin knew it. Whatever Russia does, the US still looms large as the biggest threat to China. For that alone, China will not oppose Russia.” Yun Sun told The Guardian.
Last week, Chinascope told you about the New York Times reporting on US officials sharing information with the Chinese side about Russia’s impending invasion of Ukraine. The Chinese foreign ministry has called the New York Times report “pure fake news.”
“The report by the New York Times is purely fake news. Such practice of diverting attention and blame-shifting is despicable. The ins and outs of the developments of the Ukraine issue are obvious. The crux of the issue is known to all,” said Wang Wenbin, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson.
The scramble to explain why China failed to see Russia’s invasion and was caught unprepared is ongoing.
Zhao Tong, a leading Chinese expert on nuclear security, wrote a Twitter thread on why China failed to predict the war in Ukraine.
“China likely failed to predict the war. Even many Russian senior intel & mil officials and many top Russian experts didn’t seem to foresee the war. Given deep distrust of the US, China probably dismissed the intel shared by the US as psychological warfare to drive a wedge,” wrote Zhao.
On a recent reporting trip to Tibetan areas of Garze County, two Associated Press journalists had suggested that no new self-immolations have been reported inside Tibet for the last two years. A new case of self-immolation was reported this past week. Tibetan singer Tsewang Norbu is said to have set himself on fire on 25 February in front of Lhasa’s Potala Palace. The self-immolation attempt was stopped, but Nobu is said to be scummed following the incident.
“Tsewang Norbu tried to protest the Chinese government by attempting to self-immolate and according to few of my reliable sources from inside Tibet, (he) has died,” according a Tibetan living in exile who spoke to RFA’s Tibetan service.
Also read: As globalisation is bombed, a ‘fortress economy’ is tempting, but India must know its limits
China in world news
This week, a figure who had defined the US’ China policy under President Donald Trump appeared in Taiwan. Former US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo has said the US should diplomatically recognise Taiwan as a “free and sovereign country” during his visit to Taipei.
Pompeo is on a four-day tour of Taiwan and spoke at an event hosted by the Taipei-based Prospect Foundation. Some Taiwanese commentators have speculated that Taiwan’s invitation to Pompeo was part of Taipei’s strategy to woo him ahead of his potential nomination to US presidential race in 2024 — which has made the rounds.
“It is my view that the United States Government should immediately take necessary and long overdue steps to do the right and obvious thing. That is to offer the Republic of China (Taiwan) America’s diplomatic recognition as a free and sovereign country,” said Pompeo.
As the recent sanctions take their toll on Russia’s economy, the corporations are now looking to open Chinese bank accounts. According to Reuters, the Moscow branch of a Chinese state bank saw a surge in interest to open new bank accounts. “Over the past few days, 200-300 companies have approached us, wanting to open new accounts,” an employee of a Chinese state-owned bank working in Moscow told Reuters.
Meanwhile, Chinese banks are looking for workarounds to avoid the sanctions and the SWIFT ban imposed on Russia. “The internal perception is that if the sanctions get worse regarding SWIFT, we can find ways around it,” said an executive at a Chinese development bank who didn’t want to be identified.
What you must read this week
Ukraine: Did China Have a Clue? — Yun Sun
Reporting Official China — Stella Chen
And Anthony Saich on how China sees the Russian invasion of Ukraine — Jeremy Goldkorn
Also read: Ukraine crisis has many lessons for India. Most important: Atmanirbharta is the way forward
Experts this week
“It can be seen that although there are different opinions on India’s future diplomatic options, once India falls into the logical track of confronting China, the insecurity brought by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will increase significantly. Starting from this increase in anxiety, it seems that the United States and Russia are both powerful levers for India to control China jointly, and losing any of them is a huge loss for India,” wrote Wang Siyuan and Zhang Zhenyang, Members of the South Asia Group.
Podworld
China’s views on human rights have become synonymous with the detention of Uyghurs in Xinjiang. But the country has a long history of contextualising human rights through domestic politics. Dr Rana Siu Inboden, Senior Fellow with the Robert Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas-Austin, spoke to the ChinaPower podcast. Chinascope recommends listening to the episode.
The author is a columnist and a freelance journalist, currently pursuing an MSc in international politics with focus on China from School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London. He was previously a China media journalist at the BBC World Service. He tweets @aadilbrar. Views are personal.
This is a weekly round-up that Aadil Brar writes about what’s buzzing in China. This will soon be available as a subscribers’-only product.
(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)