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China is winning the trillion-dollar 5G war as it integrates internet with real economy

China's aggressive buildup toward a more automated industrial landscape will give it a renewed advantage where it already dominates: manufacturing.

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China is building tens of thousands of 5G base stations every week. Whether it wins technological dominance or not, domestic supply chains may be revived and allow the country to maintain – and advance — its position as the factory floor of the world, even as Covid-19 forces a rethink in how globalization is done.

By the end of this year, China will have more than half a million of these towers on its way to a goal of 5 million, a fast climb from around 200,000 already in use, enabling faster communication for hundreds of millions of smartphone users. By comparison, South Korea has a nearly 10% penetration rate for 5G usage, the highest globally. The much-smaller country had 115,000 such stations operating as of April.

The towers are part of a raft of projects that the State Council announced last week to boost industrial innovation under the “New Infrastructure” campaign aimed at furthering “the deep integration of the Internet of Things” and the real economy. With an aim of spending $1.4 trillion by 2025, the aggressive buildup toward a more automated industrial landscape will give China a renewed advantage where it already dominates: manufacturing.

The coronavirus shut down factories and industrial sectors, triggering a rethink of supply chains – away from China. What analysts are calling “peak” globalization and the rise of factory automation could shift production to higher-cost countries in North America and Southeast Asia. It will take a while, but the global dependence on China will come down, the thinking goes. Still, with trade ravaged by Covid-19, other countries and telecom operators will struggle to match China’s spending.

For China, there’s an opportunity to clear the way to forcefully implement its industrial policy agenda, without interference from criticism over subsidies and unfair competition. The so-called Central Comprehensively Deepening Reforms Commission, headed by President Xi Jinping, has approved a three-year plan to give state-owned enterprises yet more sway in the economy.

Beijing’s ambitious programs are still in the construction phase. Macro base stations are the nuts and bolts of building out 5G networks, and will exceed their 4G predecessors by almost 1.5 times. Capital expenditure could peak at $30 billion this year, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts, up from $5 billion last year. Beijing wants more local governments and companies to get involved. Each station costs around 500,000 yuan ($71,361) and has a long value chain that includes electrical components, semiconductors, antenna units and circuit boards. The vast number of companies spawned by the project are all contributing to China’s push to get ahead.

For the industrial complex, the onset of 5G will enable greater connectivity between machines and much more data transfer and collection. Fifth-generation technology is expected to have a big impact through increasingly efficient and automated factory equipment, and tracking the movement of inventory and progress of production lines and assets. Manufacturing is expected to account for almost 40% of 5G-enabled industry output, according to  Bernstein Research analysts.

From sensors and data clouds, to chips and collaborative robots and computer-controlled machinery, a whole universe of little-known Chinese companies is coming to the fore. Memory chip maker Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc. has ridden the trend, as has Yonyou Network Technology Co., China’s version of Salesforce.com Inc. For some of these companies, government subsidies are a significant part of earnings, as my colleague Shuli Ren has noted. Stock prices have surged in recent months for firms like Shennan Circuits Co., which makes printed circuit boards, and Maxscend Microelectronics Co., a manufacturer of radio frequency chips. Some are seeing their market capitalization values balloon by billions of dollars as Beijing has upped the ante on new infrastructure.

To be sure, it isn’t hard to imagine a hinterland speckled with ghost towers and base stations in coming years as China’s propensity to overbuild beyond any reasonable capacity kicks in. The past shows that questions of quality will arise when too many sub-par manufacturers crop up, incentivized by the state’s largesse. Nonetheless, this is the technology of the not-so-distant future, and building up the basic infrastructure isn’t misguided.

As Covid-19 absorbs the world’s attention, Beijing’s steady focus on implementing this industrial policy may make China the manufacturer of parts that most countries will need – soon. In other words, it will yet again become the factory floor, mastering the production of all things 5G.- Bloomberg


Also read: Wuhan showed us how Covid could spread, now it offers clues to how economies may recover


 

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86 COMMENTS

  1. Our rulers have killed ITI, CDOT etc. ITI was killed by Sukhram who started Himachal futiristics as telecom minister by robbing exchanges from ITI, our govt kills BSNL and MTNL by not giving them 4G asking them to use huawei and then stop tenders. Our useless govts are responsible for not making telecom available to masses with good products and R&D. Every telecom minister leaves a scam. Huawei started by robbing technology from cisco, juniper, killing nortel and copying many gear makers, it is CCP and chinese govt funding and stealing that has enabled this 5G growth of China. Huawei has limitless coffers while our govt kills our telecom manafacturers like ITI and CDOT

  2. Right, china can further increase efficiency in manufacturing with 5G. But efficiency was never a problem as they are cheap and efficient even now. But their geo political ambitions with OBOR, unsustainable debt, communist domestic iron fist has put the western world in a state of alert and dried up business from them. Gulf countries too have this problem. But they allow the west to interfere in the problem, allow the west to supply arms, ammunition, and these gulf countries reinvest in western cos the profit they earn which is a win win situation. China is not allowing the west to interfere geo politically or buying weapons from the west. The problem is now they can only look at the domestic market and some 3rd world unaffordable markets like Africa, Iran, Pakistan etc for their products. Without money supply from developed economies, China needs indian market to partially leverage its manufacturing efficiency. Chinas game plan will be successful only it creates a turmoil where it can force the west to line up at its doors for items or die. Corona was its trump card. Ppl r dying, now china needs to integrate 5G with medical and pharmaceutical manufacturing, R&D , and create a challenge to the west in saving lives. Then the west will once again line up as ppl demand life saving medicines and affordable healthcare.

    • In 2018, floods resulted in over 20 casualties and billions of yuan in damage in China, with the government issuing 835 flood warnings nationwide.
      As global temperatures rise, the combination of extreme weather events and sea-level rise threatens the basic infrastructure and water security of low-elevation Chinese cities. Coastal residents account for 43% of China’s population – approximately 170 million citizens live less than ten meters above sea level.
      In fact, seven of China’s ten largest cities are on the coast, creating high stakes for the government to address impending threats of flooding and sea-level rise. Shanghai, China’s largest city, is on the frontlines of climate change as one of the world’s most flood-vulnerable major cities. Shanghai’s government was eager to invest in the sponge city initiative and expand greenspace, rooftop gardens, and porous pavements to control stormwater floods.

      However, officials have been hesitant to invest in climate adaptation measures that don’t create a big splash, like the unglamorous networks of sewage and wastewater infrastructure.
      What’s so scary this is not over in Wuhan with those wet markets reopen this will be a place for diseases to really grow and develop.
      Did you see all that slit and waste debris? I can all most guarantee that the wastewater system combined with sewer flooding has mixed with the sewer system and discharge on to the streets.

      That right there will create all types of disease and if Flies and Mosquitoes breed off sewage stormwater this creates the perfect idea environment of another virus to develop.

      Rain Water
      Mosquitos lay their eggs in water, so flooding rains are ideal. Those heavy rainstorms leave behind puddles and standing water which fosters mosquito larva.
      This means more mosquitoes are being bred, and then those mosquitoes breed more in turn.

  3. We are still not relieve from 2G corruption and our most of the villages are even not having Electricity and installing 5G base station is the opportunity to make money to our politician not to the people.

  4. The print is a pro China media house. They survive selling pro China propaganda on the cost of Indian citizenship.

  5. Lol.You guys must be high on some grass supplied to you by your Chinese benefactors.How else do you explain your China chant amidst the global unrest created by China?
    You guys got no soul,no self respect.You are good at one thing undoubtedly i.e. stooping to new depths.
    Nobody with an iota of reasoning skills is gonna believe your articles.It is easily understandable how you are trying to glorify the might(pun intended) of a country which is finding it hard to stay afloat.Factory floor of the world! Nice joke.

  6. Many of the comments have one theme: Don’t tell. I am scared. Ergo, I don’t want to know. Sadly, life is real and it sometimes kicks you in your teeth.
    It may be useful to trawl the ‘net and see for one’s own eyes, the sheer size of Huawei’s R&D centre.
    They ideated, they spent money, they bore the bills that the R&D guys were running up. Now and in the future, they will make up the trillion dollars.
    Indian businessmen, spent their money on paying Erickson/ Nokia for gear and proudly told pink papers that their purpose was to give telephony to Indians and Africans, not tech gear!
    Well, they shall pay much more to Ericksons and Nokia and keep on telling Indians and Africans that they have fastest 4G in India. Who will do R&d for India? Will it be CDot which Janata Govt killed And Sam Pitroda said mobile phones were ‘an obscenity’ in poor, poor India and the great RS Prasad says we shall not let Huawei steal our secrets (his authority? Uncle Donald in the WH) .
    India has many clever people but business people who will pay for only six months and politicians who only know pride and that India had Pushpak viman in Ramayana.
    It is disgusting to read the main article and worse, the comments.

    • Indians have an inferiority complex with respect to China and the west, and it is difficult to be objective. They have a sense of entitlement to Great Power status – solely based on population. They do not work to achieve it like China.

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