It won’t matter how many more Twitter followers Narendra Modi has than Rahul Gandhi. It will only matter who has won more seats in the Lok Sabha.
It’s curious that in recent months, political pundits appear increasingly convinced that fighting ideological wars on social media would be key to winning the 2019 polls.
While, as an early adopter of the medium, I certainly think it will be important, I would caution against overestimating the importance of social media, particularly when it comes to carving out a counter-narrative in the ideological battle running up to 2019.
Take Twitter, for instance. Twitter helps in two ways: First, it is an excellent publicity tool, as mainstream media derives news from tweets and so your messages, opinions and photos on Twitter can make their way to a wider audience. Second, it consolidates your image among the 5-10 per cent or so of your voters (higher perhaps in some metros, but under 10 per cent in my own constituency, Thiruvananthapuram) who follow you on Twitter.
Where Twitter does not help is in influencing the majority of the electorate directly – because in most Indian constituencies, Twitter simply does not reach the majority. Of course, Facebook has a bigger reach, but it also features longer posts that everyone might not digest. Short messages and memes going viral on WhatsApp are also an effective means of spreading a message. But neither gets to even half the electorate in any constituency. It’s clear that you need various ways of reaching out to the electorate, and social media happens to offer an additional way, not a substitute for any of the traditional means of campaigning.
In 2014, I would not even say that social media influenced the influencers, because in our country the influencers emerge from more traditional backgrounds, including classic power-brokers, veteran political managers and religious and community leaders, whose opinions are not determined by social media. While I believe Twitter and social media generally will grow in importance, and so it is important to get in on the ground floor and establish one’s base, I do not think it will necessarily be a game changer on its own in 2019. But if things are going the way they are going, then perhaps the answer may be different in 2024.
When I first got on to Twitter, it was primarily just my way of attempting to reach out to the public and keep them informed of what I was doing. As an elected representative of the people, I felt that it was a duty on my part to ensure that I was as transparent, accessible and communicative with the people as possible, and that was appreciated by many. It made me more accessible to people and in turn, made them more accessible to me. If in the process it contributed to my political “branding”, so much the better.
When I took to Twitter, I was not just the first leader in the Congress on the platform, but was also among the very first politicians in India to do so. The first head that sticks itself above the parapet is usually the first one to be shot at, and I took more than my fair share of criticism and artificially-manufactured controversies. Venkaiah Naidu presciently said of me, “too much tweeting can lead to quitting”. Still, I made a prediction in October 2009 that within ten years, a majority of politicians in India would actively take to Twitter and take social media seriously. It took much less than 10 years to prove me right.
But for all my tweeting, on the campaign trail, I will spend almost all my time doing the old-fashioned things – hitting the road, shaking hands, speaking at rallies, addressing voters directly wherever possible. I enjoy social media, but it’s not a substitute for politics nor for governance. If only the ruling party would realise that too!
At the same time, the negative aspects of social media have become more apparent since the innocent days when I first adopted it. For example, when I first engaged in dialogue and repartee and Q&A with people, I could always assume these were real human beings with genuine questions.
Now I’ve realised that the vast majority of the comments and questions addressed to me have a political agenda behind them, they’re very often “organised” and the person asking the question may not even really exist. We are told, for example, that the BJP has entire squads organised, where one person can run up to six hundred fake accounts! He does nothing else all day and is paid a salary to sit at his computer and issue very similar (and, because people are lazy, often identical) tweets in six hundred different names, espousing a line fed to him by the party.
The existence of the “professional troll” engaged by political parties, especially the ruling party, to smear opponents is undeniable. Anything that is invented and can be used, can also be misused. And the phenomenon of “trolling” has twisted what might otherwise have been a very useful means of communication to nefarious purposes of vilification and abuse.
Congress warmed up to social media very late, but is more than making up for lost time. Our aim was never to define ourselves on social media in terms and metrics comparable to the BJP. For one, the organised vitriol that the ruling party seems to prefer is something that the Congress would prefer to avoid and continues to consciously desist from. Our counter-narrative has often been constructive, an attempt to hold the government accountable (as is the principal duty of the largest Opposition party) and while we are at it, we are also going about it in a manner that has been witty, eye-catching and trend setting.
The Congress social media team, under the energetic leadership of Divya Spandana, has done terrific work in the past couple of years to carve out a unique niche for the party on social media. Parity in impact is the least you can say about the Congress’s performance on social media; perhaps even the BJP would do well to now try and take a leaf or two from our book.
Rahul Gandhi has been especially sharp and incisive, while at the same time attentive and involved with the concerns of the country. His enthusiasm on social media, his wit, energy and sense of humour are all on display. But at the same time, it is his work on the ground that has really made him stand out of late and has shaped a dynamic image of Rahul as a constructive and attentive statesman. This is a man whose engagement on social media platforms speaks to a wider engagement with politics. There is neither “reluctance” nor frivolity on display here, only commitment and passion to make a better India.
Personally, as someone who urged him to join Twitter and then to be himself on it, I’m delighted by his popularity on this medium as well. He has clearly made a mark in this space and the results are there for all to see. I would tell him to keep at it, continue to maintain this unique channel of communication with the people of the country, and ignore the trolls and troglodytes along the way, since the positives vastly outweigh the negatives on this medium.
But none of us should forget that social media is merely one means to a more important end. In 2019, our eyes must be on a much larger prize. It won’t matter how many more Twitter followers Narendra Modi has than Rahul Gandhi. It will only matter who has won more seats in the Lok Sabha.
Dr Shashi Tharoor is a Member of Parliament for Thiruvananthapuram and former MoS for External Affairs and HRD. He served the UN as an administrator and peacekeeper for three decades. He studied history at St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University, and International Relations at Tufts University. Tharoor has authored 17 books, both fiction and non-fiction; his most recent book is ‘Why I am a Hindu’. Follow him on Twitter @ShashiTharoor