The overwhelming victory of the BJP in Karnataka raises the following question: is this victory a massive endorsement of Narendra Modi-led BJP or a strong rebuke of an opportunistic alliance between Janata Dal (Secular) and Congress?
Any answer to this depends on the respondent’s ideological and political preference. However, this much is clear: after these results, there remains no logical rationale for the continuation of the JD(S) and Congress alliance. The worry for both is not these electoral defeats. Rather the irrevocable loss of political base is their nightmare scenario.
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A failed alliance
Former Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda had forced his party to stay away from the BJP, and paved the way for an alliance with the Congress. Even when it was formed in May 2018, this alliance itself was a wager on both JD(S) and Congress doing well in Karnataka in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and a Congress-led alliance defeating Narendra Modi.
Neither of these has happened. Not only did Modi lead the NDA to a massive victory across the nation, but his influence has also led to a landslide victory for the BJP and crushing losses for many Congress and JD(S) stalwarts. After a five-decade-long political career, Mallikarjun Kharge, leader of Congress in the Lok Sabha, has suffered his first electoral defeat. Deve Gowda, former ministers Veerappa Moily and K.H. Muniyappa have lost as well.
No doubt, these losses hurt. But what both the Congress and the JD(S) will worry about is this simple political reality. The parties have their strongholds in the southern and central regions of Karnataka. Their combined strength should have led them to an overwhelming victory over the BJP in these parts and created a positive momentum to compete in north and coastal Karnataka.
However, what has happened is the obverse. Riding on Modi’s popularity, the BJP has now quickly and quietly occupied the political space vacated by one of the alliance partners. Disgruntled activists and supporters of such a party have quickly moved to support the BJP. In constituency after constituency, traditional Congress and JD(S) voters have backed the BJP if their party didn’t put up a candidate, instead of voting for their alliance partner. Not surprisingly then, the BJP’s vote share in Karnataka in 2019 Lok Sabha polls has gone up to almost 54 per cent, which is nearly 10 per cent more than what the JD(S) – Congress alliance has received.
On 18 April itself, when the first phase of polls was held in southern and central Karnataka, initial political commentary in Bangalore centred around how the BJP had put every single Congress and JD (S) stronghold in play. Hassan and Bangalore Rural were expected to be the only certainties for the alliance partners. However, even B.S. Yeddyurappa would not have expected the quantum as well as the margin of BJP victories.
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Instability in government
Consider the setbacks the Congress has suffered in reserved constituencies such as Gulbarga, Kolar, Raichur, Bellary, Chitradurga and Chamarajnagar, where the BJP hasn’t historically done well. The Congress not only expected to compete strongly but win most of these seats. Now, it has suffered serious damage in all of them.
Under these circumstances, the Congress legislators opposing the alliance will be emboldened. Some of them might leave the party and join the BJP. Others will gravitate towards former chief minister Siddaramaiah and their actions too will destabilise the Kumaraswamy government.
Even other Congress leaders such as G. Parameshwara, the deputy chief minister, and D.K. Shivakumar, who are beneficiaries of the current arrangement, will take cognisance of the harm caused by the alliance. It is likely that they too would prefer to sit in the opposition and allow the BJP to govern. If the past is any indicator, when in power in Karnataka, the BJP is capable of self-destructing itself and even the Modi-Shah duo may not be able to control the inevitable internal power squabbles. So, whenever the next assembly elections are held, the Congress could at least present a credible fight.
Also read: Modi magic limited to Karnataka in the south
Making a government
As the rationale for the continuation of the Congress-JD(S) alliance collapses, how and when the Kumaraswamy government will fall is a matter of time and details.
Out of this churning, a new politics of Karnataka has to emerge. It isn’t certain that the BJP’s electoral success in Lok Sabha elections will translate to assembly elections. Its state leadership is divided.
Yeddyurappa is 76-years old and isn’t expected to be considered as a candidate for any political office. The second rung leaders haven’t distinguished themselves so far and may need all the support the BJP high command will offer. That may lead to the installation of Ananth Kumar Hegde, who retained Uttara Kannada constituency with a massive margin of nearly 4,80,000 votes.
Karnataka is headed towards interesting, and perhaps, even terrifying times.
Also read: After Narendra Modi wave, only a miracle can save Congress-JD(S) alliance in Karnataka
Gateway to the south
In south India, the BJP remains stalled at its gateway, Karnataka. Despite its massive victory in Karnataka, the party hasn’t made much headway in the south, with the exception of Telangana where it has won four seats. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and the Congress haven’t lost much ground.
The remaining three south Indian states – Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu – present a very different scenario from the BJP’s perspective. Unlike in Bengal and Odisha, where the BJP made substantial gains in 2019, these three states have proved to be impregnable, despite the Sabarimala controversy in Kerala and the alliance with AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. Neither of these has provided enough impetus for the BJP to even open its account in any of these states.
The author is a social historian and political commentator. He teaches History and Humanities at Krea University. Views expressed are personal.