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Chidiya chug gayi khet; but it’s heartening to read that our venerable geo-strategy experts are closely monitoring developments in Pakistan & Bangladesh (exactly what?) and our diplomatic community is evolving genteel initiatives for inclusive neighbourly relations. This, when our diplomatic initiatives with our neighbours in S. Asia have never yielded the desired results.
Post Op Sindoor, Pakistan’s truculent stand juxtaposed with India’s chest thumping prompts me to consider some realities and delusions:
Indian Media and politicians a stuck 33rpm LP: ‘Pak is financially broke and on dole; its economy is in tatters, its military has been taught a lesson, Munir is a dangerous psychopath and extremism is destroying Pak’s social fabric.’
Repeated ad nauseam, we are in danger of believing our own hooky. All this – even if true – is immaterial. What really matters is: Post Op Sindoor,
- Has Pak backed down, expressed contrition? No.
- Has Pak uttered even a word to suggest its role in cross border terror or its policies of supporting Pak based terror organisations will be reviewed/reversed? No.
So, in what way have we succeeded in our strategic and geo-political objectives critical to J&K?
When we look at the will of miniscule Israel, seems India lacks moral fiber, courage of conviction and guts to rough it out. Instead, India tends to whine, protest, complain, and righteously explain its stand in sundry international fora, standing on a pedestal of wet sand at low tide. Nobody internationally gives a hoot.
The reality beyond the rhetoric:
- The PM of Hindu Nepal visits China first;
- Bhutan has declared it will sort out its problems with China minus India, thank you;
- Bangladesh has reached escape velocity and is openly spiralling back into Pak orbit with China likely to be accorded MFN status;
- Srilanka is ambivalent;
- A nobody like Maldives thumbs its nose at us;
- Myanmar and Afghanistan are out of our orbit and influence.
- The ‘troubles’ in the Northeast are exacerbated by the tacit support of Bangladesh’s new leadership. Subversives find easy shelter and sympathy in neighbouring BD.
- BD in turn can afford to cock a snook at India based on the active support it gets from Pak and passive encouragement from China.
- Pak by itself would not pose much of a problem – if it was not fully supported by China in terms of economic and military aid. Now add Turkey.
- Any future conflict with Pak will likely see Chinese forays into disputed regions in Ladakh and ALP.
- The Siliguri corridor is open to effective interdiction.
- Let us be realistic: Fighting with only Pak will prove a full-time job for India; if the Chinese jump in, we will be overwhelmed.
- As for Western aid, Europe couldn’t care less, they are anyway broke and Ukraine is going to suck all they can spare; help from USA is an open question.
- Russia’s economic ties with China run deep; RU will maintain a neutral stance – just as we do in their standoff with Ukraine.
- Aksai Chin is not coming back to India anytime soon.
- We do not have the strength presently to take back PoK by force as China will also get involved, given her strategic highway and critical access to the Arabian Sea traverses this region.
- Two of the world’s most powerful countries cuddle Pak and even USA can’t get a grip on China.
- Numerous Muslim nations covertly empathise with Pak, many overtly support it.
- A vast majority of our minority community loves to fly green flags at every other opportunity.
- FM Munir is a celebrity. Pak gets F16 spares from USA, money from IMF, latest baubles at a discount from China, Turkish military hardware and Mid East financial support on call.
- Islamic Pak has an Islamic nuclear bomb showcased like the Cullinan diamond.
Are we waiting for Mr Trump to tell us the obvious: ‘We don’t have the cards?’ (Maybe he did, leading to the ceasefire?)
Let us not be fooled by our own jingoism. Cultivating a principled, peace loving, virtuous and goody-goody Boy Scout image internationally does not get the job done in global realpolitik.
We need to look beyond our Pak-centric obsession. China is key to India’s external problems; normalisation of relations with China should be of paramount importance for India. Come to amicable terms with this puppeteer on priority and all major problems with our neighbours can be expected to fade or diminish to an extent they become easily manageable. Doubt we have a viable alternative. QUAD certainly isn’t, beyond ineffective symbolism.
Do not complain, do not explain, do not justify. Time for Bharat to pull her head out of the sand, clear her vision, do what needs doing and have the physical guts, moral fibre and mental stoicism to face the flak. (Isn’t that what the Bhagwad Gita says?)
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