New Delhi: India under Narendra Modi is the fifth biggest geopolitical risk of 2020, according to the world’s leading political risk consultancy, Eurasia Group.
The consultancy’s annual ‘Top 10 Risks’ of the year list is considered one of the foremost geopolitical indicators among global investors, multinational firms and various financial and business consultancies.
“Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spent much of his second term promoting controversial social policies at the expense of an economic agenda. The impacts will be felt in 2020, with intensified communal and sectarian instability, as well as foreign policy and economic setbacks,” said the Eurasia Group’s report.
Titled ‘India gets Modi-fied’, the analysis has been co-authored by the president of Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer.
It’s a change of position for Bremmer, who had earlier argued that “Modi is India’s best hope for economic reform” in the May 2019 edition of Time magazine, the same edition in which author Aatish Taseer had called the prime minister “Divider-in-Chief”.
The top three risks on the list are increasingly unstable US domestic politics under President Donald Trump, “decoupling” of US and China in the technology sphere, and hostile US-China relations.
Also read: ‘Dictatorship’, no ‘accountability’, no jobs: People in Jammu say Modi govt has failed them
‘Amit Shah behind Modi’s radical shift’
Eurasia’s report talks about how since his re-election in May 2019, Modi’s government has adopted a “contentious” social agenda, which not only comes “at the cost” of India’s economy, but also “challenges the secular and democratic foundations” of the republic.
“Modi and his government have been busy in recent months. They revoked the special status for Jammu and Kashmir and implemented a system to identify illegal immigrants in the northeast, stripping 1.9 million people of citizenship,” Bremmer and co-author Cliff Kupchan write.
“The government also passed a law that, for the first time, makes religion a criterion for migrants from neighbouring countries to formally acquire Indian citizenship,” the authors say.
The report goes on to talk about how Home Minister Amit Shah is responsible this radical policy shift. “Behind these moves is Amit Shah, the former (sic) head of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), now home minister,” it states.
Bremmer and Kupchan note that protests have “spread around India”, due to citizens’ fear of India losing its “secular identity”. But regardless of growing protests, “Modi will not back down”, they state.
Also read: Shiv Sena says Modi-Shah politics ‘brutal’, compares JNU attack with 26/11
Spill-over on India’s foreign and economic policy
The Modi government’s social agenda will also have “harmful effects for India’s foreign policy”, the authors claim.
“Its actions on human rights will be under closer scrutiny by many nations, and its reputation will take a hit,” they contend, adding that changing attitudes in the US Congress towards India are likely to further impede US-India ties.
In terms of the economy, the Eurasia Group argues that under Modi, the economic nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the BJP’s ideological fount, has become increasingly powerful.
“An empowered RSS means that Modi has less room to manoeuvre on structural reforms, just as the economy is starting to sputter, with quarterly growth falling to a six-year low of 4.5 per cent and forward-looking indicators looking softer still,” notes the report.
“The RSS influence was evident in Modi’s decision to drop out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership negotiations last year and will be a big reason why India is unlikely to rejoin in 2020,” it adds.
The report ends by stating that a weakened economy “will in turn feed further economic nationalism and protectionism, weighing on India’s troubled course in 2020”.
Also read: Modi govt now snubbing critics in other countries too. And US, UK won’t hold back for long
Changing stance on Modi
Bremmer and the Eurasia Group had been bullish about India’s prospects since Modi was elected in 2014.
“The biggest opportunity out there right now has got to be India. I mean, you’ve got a prime minister who is enormously popular because he is clean and he is capable,” Bremmer had said in 2017.
“When he was running Gujarat state, it was experiencing double-digit growth. You were able to travel there and see that you could set up a business and the infrastructure worked. I think more of India will start looking like Gujarat because of that,” he had argued.
In his May 2019 Time article, Bremmer had struck a more cautious but definitely optimistic note about Modi.
“Modi has the instinct to dominate and the thin skin of other strongmen, but he also has a genuine track record in providing the kind of reform that developing India urgently needs,” he had written.
But after Modi’s re-election, the tide soon turned, and by December 2019, Bremmer had publicly reversed his position. He wrote for Time again last month, and the article was titled: ‘I argued that Narendra Modi was India’s best hope for economic reform. Things have changed’.
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Namo is only doing his duty. The culture is the soul of the nation and he is protecting the soul of our nation. If now he will not protect our culture Hindus will be kaafir
BJP Govt. has honestly acted to fulfill the promises the party manifesto bearing since its inception instead of speeches and passing resolutions which as what has been done by the previous government that is Congress in particular. General perception of voters in our country is that, political parties would never keep their promises after getting elected. This is the first of its kind that a political party have started to keep their promises one by one pledged before election overcoming huge opposition without any fear of losing election next time. It is really excellent for our countrymen ,for our
nation to regain our age old rich culture and tradition with the help of our own nationalist party. Indian people want to lead a value based life since its civilization. To live in austerity is our age old practice. We can endure low GDP but not fake promise. That’s why we are proud of our prime minister who never make fake promise and never look back at vote bank to keep those promises. We have profound faith and trust upon the action , motive and goodwill of our prime minister. We have already realised that the only emotion of our prime minister is his motherland Bharat and it’s 130 crores children. We are very much hopeful that we will rise very soon economically but right now we want to earn respect from across the world for our motherland. Jai Bharat.
No comment for a such a antinational channel
Who’s Eurasia??We Hindustanis donot give a damn about Eurasia.They should shut up.
it’s a wake up call for the Modi govt. I think, it’ll not survive for the remaining four year term.And elections to the states where the bjp is a heavy loser bears out this
fact. Better call it a day and avoid future failures and disgrace. The economy can’t be revived however much you hold on to it. #AAP
The western media appreciates India only when the economic policies are in their favour, otherwise it starts criticizing India on various other issues which are not at all relevant to them.
Modi needs to resign! My nation is becoming a hell to live in, and I’d rather die before seeing this happen to my motherland. RSS must be criminalized, it’s breeding radical hindutva ideology. God Save India!??
hear, hear!!! hold-on, the tide is turning: this nightmare of achhe-din will soon be over. but we’ll have to keep at it for a while yet.
When Bremmer came on the pages of TIME magazine last time with Aatish Tashir none
of the media or so called notables in India nor
the global investors bought his piece on Modi. The entrenched powercentres went ga ga over that toxic piece Divider-in-Chief penned down by Taashir. While the left-liberal gang(LL) exploded in joyous celebration common voters watched the drama sullenly. 2019 poll verdict was emphatic. Modi became Unifier-In-Chief. His first significant move was to type the word delete on the red line that was drawn to keep Muslims veto in political and social space by legally abolishing Triple Talak. That was the first step in the political integration of India by making every one equal before the Law. His second significant move was to dilute Article 370 which had all along reinforced the Muslim veto in India’s political space by keeping Kashmir SPECIAL Islamic zone within the so called SECULR and SOCIALIST India. Kashmir was an economic ulcer gobbling up huge resources without any tangible return on that investment. The third move he made is Citizenship amendment Act to absorb huge number of illegal immigrants who are the victims of religious persecutions in neighbouring countries potentially destabilizing the border states of India and to identify and segregate the illegal economic migrants eating up jobs and resources in India. This last move has become focus of an artificially pumped up movement by Islamist underground forces in collaboration with rootless Left-Liberals(LL)s who have nowhere to go except certain University campuses displaying their antics blown up more than life size on TV screens. India is resilient and she can handle such puffed up political disturbances and disruptions. Inspite of such breast-beating about fear of prospective loss of citizenship not a single Muslim family is reported to have left for Pakistan unlike hapless members of minority communities in Pakistan fleeing to India. In 2018 RSS didn’t fight election. Modi did and he wan a massive majority. How can RSS constrain him in taking economic decision which profits this country. The regional cooperation agreement was framed in such a way it would have caused immense misery in agricultural sector in this country.It was not RSS but large number of suicides of farmers as a result of rural distress swayed Modi away from that agreement. Rural distress has caused severe deceleration in economy. Signing the Agreement would have been tantamount to signing on one’s own death warrant! Now since you have finally become convinced by Salman Taseers arguments and included as one of the potentially risky place for investment I must recall what Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said in reply to mulish sceptic masquerading as a potential investor:. If you have doubts about India you should go to Pakistan.
As usual the comments section is flooded with Andhbhakts ?
Called “Nationalism ” Babe… We’re obsessed with bharat… And fedup with the Western mindset people leading…. So call it a day and watch where this going… After soo many years india is a headache to the European mindsets?? Well..!!
Your article is so baised and inaccurate on the facts mentioned. You opinions in the article is full of shit. The bills passed by both the houses will get the economy in the right direction. The Illegal migrants enjoying India wealth will be kicked out. The funds required for the legal citizens will be well spent. The stability will enrich the society.
how much did they pay you? the minimum wage at least?
They promised that he would get to answer all the lonely hearts calling the BJP’s misleading telephone number ??
The BJP cell has taken over the comment section here too. Can I have the number on which I can get free Netflix?
Sir, it’s obvious who is from cell. The one with names or the ones like you with fake name
India was in the decline for 70 years,with a privileged class and the exploited vote banks.
India was in need for structural reform to stimulate growth.
This calls for hard decisions on political and non political fronts to see the agenda through.
Comment and discussion from uninvolved are often blinkered
Thus speaks the true desh-bhakt! I have travelled to 4 continents and everywhere, barring western Europe and north America, I was touched and surprised to see how my country is held-up as an example. a Lithuanian chemist talked to me with envy about our pharma, a Tunisian engineer-enterprenour held up Tata-Nano as an example to emulate in his own country, an Israeli taxi-driver wondered why his country cannot accept its Muslim citizens as equal as India seems to have done (this was 20 years ago), and a South African knew more about the Mahatma than I did. The so called bhakts refuse to open their eyes to see the beauty and strength of mother India and go on harping on how backwards we are. WE ARE NOT!
The question is not that we have developed or not developed. The question is who are these western people so much against an democratically elected govt of the country
You are a Sanghi Dog and a fool with no reasoning.
India was in the decline for 70 years: this is a very strange thought. Do you mean India was better 70 years ago under the British?
The religion was the main reason of partitions of India in 1947. How can India be secular? Clean your head – India was never secular though it was democratic from beginning.
ok then divide india more and all muslims shift there … clean your head.. dont act smart… only small land was given to pakistan for only some muslims.. rest muslims can settle in india .. if all muslims had to leave india.. pakistan will be bigger comprising whole north india
Military will kick out bro no division of country.
Nobody’s asking ALL MUSLIMS to leave India, Only intruders are asked to leave, so if an intruder belongs to your religion, then.. it’s regretful that they have to leave, that’s all 🙂
What to expect from the print but anti India rhetoric. This proves the theory of vested foreign players acting against Indian interests through international media
Soon Modi haters would run out of phrases to abuse and accuse Modi. The author of divider-in-chief is now begging for OCI status. Ian Bremmer’s leftist games would see the same fate as of divider-in-chief .
Who cares about these leftist organisations criticizing the Great Leader. As true nationalists we should ignore these foreigners and their alarmist reports.
This was bound to happen.
That is because your fkk congress kept jihadi Islamists in our country whose numbers now in crores, but we have to take take this much risk to flush out the islamists, like once China did.
Do you really understand what you write?
Why waste energy on an andh Bhakth ?
fkk?? Freikörperkultur ??? that is what google says. cant stop laughing! why are bhakts typically not only blinkered but also stupid and ill informed?