New Delhi, Feb 23 (PTI) With Russia suspending its nuclear arms control deal with the US amid the Ukraine crisis, strategic affairs experts are of the view that India should urge restraint and encourage Moscow and Washington to return to negotiations as any breakdown of ties between the two powers could even be a setback for New Delhi.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday announced that Moscow was suspending its participation in the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) – the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement with the US – sharply upping the ante against the West over the fighting in Ukraine.
India’s former ambassador to Russia Pankaj Saran said for India, any escalation of tensions between the US and Russia is a “strategic setback” for many reasons.
Saran, who was also the former deputy national security adviser of India, said that India should remain in close touch with both parties, ascertain their thinking and voice its well known position on the importance of nuclear arms control and disarmament.
“I am sure our government will carefully study all aspects of the unfolding situation,” he told PTI.
“We have always advocated restraint and in fact have been in the forefront of the call for global nuclear disarmament. Our neighbours who possess nuclear weapons should not draw the wrong lessons from what we are seeing happening between the US and Russia,” said Saran, who was India’s envoy to Russia from 2016-2018.
Former envoy Anil Wadhwa said India’s nuclear arsenal and delivery systems development programme has stagnated for a while and India has kept a minimum deterrent posture.
“In the absence of restrain by our neighbours like China and Pakistan and in the extended neighbourhood by countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia and North Korea, India will need to adjust its deterrent and delivery capabilities and also acquire or develop credible defensive systems and retain a credible second strike capability,” said the former ambassador to Italy, Poland, Oman and Thailand.
He said India should at this stage “urge restraint and encourage” Russia and the United States to return to negotiations while at the same time stepping up its efforts as the G-20 coordinator to find a way out of the impasse in the war in Ukraine.
Wadhwa said the move will also lead to countries wanting to join the nuclear bandwagon like North Korea, Iran, Saudi Arabia to accelerate their march towards acquisition of nuclear weapons.
“China and its all-weather friend Pakistan will strive to increase their nuclear weapons and their delivery systems and countries like Japan and South Korea who so far constrained by the world nuclear order will be forced to rethink their nuclear and security postures,” he said.
Under the treaty, signed in 2010 and extended until 2026, Moscow and Washington committed to deploying no more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and a maximum of 700 long-range missiles and bombers.
Wadhwa said the decision to suspend the treaty will affect the US directly which will has to adjust its nuclear posture appropriately for its security and that of its allies. “If Russia also stops data exchanges and notifications it would change the strategic arms control balance between Russia and the US maintained since 1972. This would increase the chances of misunderstanding inflate threat perception and fuel an already accelerating arms race,” he said Saran said the new START was extended after difficulty for five years beyond 2021 till 2026.
“Although this is not a declaration of Russian withdrawal from the treaty, it is still a serious blow to the only surviving agreement providing strategic stability between the world’s two largest nuclear weapon powers,” he said.
Saran said it is a signal of growing tensions and widens the fallout of the Ukraine conflict to the nuclear domain.
“Given their decades old animosity as well as knowledge of each other, both the US and Russia have gamed the escalatory scenarios to perfection, and it is quite likely therefore that the US may have anticipated such a step by Russia. We will have to wait now for the US reaction,” he added.
Saran said the political signalling involved in the Russian move is not good.
“Of course, a few years ago, President (Donald) Trump had withdrawn the US from the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty. So taken together, we have to be very watchful of a potential unravelling of the nuclear arms control regime by actions of both the nuclear superpowers,” he said. PTI UZM ZMN
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