New Delhi: Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has said he is “deeply worried” that “social unrest”, “economic ruin” and the coronavirus outbreak “may not only rupture the soul of India” but also diminish the country’s global standing as an economic and democratic power.
In an opinion piece published in The Hindu Friday, Singh said he wrote with a “heavy heart” how India has “slid from being a global showcase of liberal democracy to a majoritarian state in economic despair”. Talking about the riots in that tore through northeast Delhi in the last week of February, the former prime minister said the lives of nearly 50 Indians were lost “for no reason”.
He said communal tensions were stoked by “unruly sections of our society, including the political class”.
“Institutions of law and order have abandoned their dharma to protect citizens. Institutions of justice and the fourth pillar of democracy, the media, have also failed us,” Singh wrote.
He warned that the “fire of social tensions” that is spreading across the country can threaten to “char the soul of the nation”. The veteran leader maintained that this fire can only be “extinguished by the same people who lit it”.
In the article, Singh also spoke about the economic slowdown and the impact of coronavirus crisis on India’s economy, and said the combination of these and the Delhi riots could hurt India’s standing as a global economic power.
“Wilfully stoked communal tensions, gross economic mismanagement and an external health shock are threatening to derail India’s progress and standing. It is time to confront the harsh reality of the grave risks we face as a nation and address them squarely and sufficiently,” the former PM said.
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On economic slowdown
Singh said the social unrest in India has come at a time the country’s economy is floundering.
“…no amount of tweaking of tax rates, showering of cooperative incentives or fading will propel Indian or foreign businesses to invest, when the risk of eruption of sudden violence in one’s neighbourhood looms large,” the article read.
The economy is stuck in a “vicious cycle”, wherein “lack of investment meant lack of jobs and income”, which ultimately leads to a “lack of consumption and demand in the economy”, the senior Congress leader wrote.
Coronavirus threat
To tackle the spread of coronavirus or COVID-19 in India — 30 cases have been reported so far — Singh said it was important to launch a full-scale, mission-mode operation.
He also warned that the economic impact of the infection will be “very big” in India, and added that it could further slow India’s GDP growth by half to one percentage point.
He said while India’s economic growth was already tepid, this “external health shock” would make things “much worse”.
“Millions of small and medium businesses in India that account for more than three-quarters of all formal employment are part of the global supply chain. In such an integrated global economy, the COVID-19 crisis can further slow India’s GDP growth by half to one percentage point, other things being constant,” Singh wrote.
Three-point plan
The former PM suggested a three-point plan for India to tackle the crises.
First, he said, the government should focus all energies and efforts on containing the COVID-19 threat and prepare adequately.
Second, it should withdraw or amend the Citizenship Act, end the toxic social climate and foster national unity, he wrote.
Third, the government should put together a detailed and meticulous fiscal stimulus plan to boost consumption demand and revive the economy, he said.
He further advised Prime Minister Narendra Modi to “convince the nation, not merely through words but by deeds, that he is cognisant of the dangers we face and reassure the nation that he can help us tide over this as smoothly as we can”.
He said such “a moment of deep crisis” could also reinvent itself as a “moment of great opportunity” as he recalled the “grave economic crisis” of 1991.
“…we were able to successfully turn this into an opportunity to reinvigorate the economy through drastic reforms,” he wrote.
Singh said viral outbreak and the slowdown of China’s economy could “potentially open up an opportunity for India to unleash second-generation reforms to become a larger player in the global economy and vastly improve prosperity levels for hundreds of millions of Indians”.
To achieve this, however, Indians “must first rise above divisive ideology, petty politics and respect institutional salience”, he wrote.
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Well pointed out by the Economist. We all need to rise above the Party lines and put India into another orbit of economic development as done in 1991-so that employment opportunity increases and strengthens the masses to fight out COVID-19, instead of fighting amongst themselves on non-significant issues. The present Government can do it, should do it, will do it fast and make its presence felt world over.
Well written. I only hope that our politicians come of age and realise what you have written. Instead of creating ghosts and bogy, they should think about the programmes for the citizens welfare. The bickering among the political parties is responsible for tarnishing the image of India and the present social unrest on unfounded reasons.
One sure shot remedy to increase consumption is to pass on the lower prices of crude oil to consumers of petrol, diesel. This saving in fuel prices will be equivalent to direct cash transfer to ALL. without any scope for corruption. The government want to wash its hand by saying that the prices of fuel are market driven, But everybody knows that the crude prices have fallen from $84 to $50 a barrel in international market. BBut Indian citizen have not benefited. Some businessman is cornering the fat profits.
My take is that COVID19 will roast and die in Indian Summer heat. This menace will end sooner than expected. I don’t believe this doomsayer.