Geopolitical tensions, supply side bottlenecks and post-Covid rise in demand are likely to disrupt inflation calculations. Lack of a clear RBI signal could even affect the rupee.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis has led to a rush towards safe haven assets such as gold and the US dollar. Investors are selling riskier assets such as Indian equities.
The decision to move away from the defined benefit old pension scheme for civil servants was based on the fact that the old pension system was inherently inequitable.
Some of the typically sluggish indicators such as consumer sentiment, bank credit have seen a pick up. But escalating geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices pose risks.
The currency is likely to have stable value, limiting appeal as an asset. It may be safer than holding cash, but tech, connectivity will pose issues, if meant for wide use by households.
Lack of dedicated debt agency leads to conflict between managing govt debt and inflation. RBI chose former, but rate hike would have helped normalisation, attracted foreign funds.
The big capex push will not only create productive assets, but also more jobs. This, in turn, will create sustainable demand as well as crowd in private investment and push growth.
The Modi government has given a boost to capital expenditure and announced several infra projects to pump-prime private investment and economic recovery.
Budget should offer immediate relief to people worst hit during pandemic, focus on public investment in infrastructure, continue disinvestment plans for PSUs.
Budget could also look at tax rebates to stimulate housing demand, raising standard deduction, getting rid of redundant stock market taxes to encourage households to invest.