scorecardresearch
Friday, March 29, 2024
Support Our Journalism
HomeHealthWhy does this new wave of Covid have a low mortality rate?...

Why does this new wave of Covid have a low mortality rate? Doctors explain

Doctors ThePrint spoke to in three states say there has been a steady increase in the number of admissions, but hospitals are not seeing a deluge of patients.

Follow Us :
Text Size:

New Delhi: For the 14th day in a row, India Wednesday saw an increase in the daily number of cases as the active caseload rose to 3,68,457.

The number of daily deaths has, however, remained around 200, and the case fatality ratio — the percentage of deaths to cases — is currently at 1.37 per cent.

The mortality rate is low when compared to the first wave — the number of daily deaths had been hovering around 600 when the daily number of active cases had risen to over 3.4 lakh last time, on 17 July.

ThePrint spoke to doctors and experts who said there is no clarity if a change in the virus strain is causing fewer deaths, but a better and more evolved Covid-19 response mechanism has definitely been the difference between the first and second waves.

“We are wiser, as far as the disease is concerned, and we have exactly come to know what works and what doesn’t work when it comes to treating these patients,” said Anjan Trikha, professor at the Department of Anaesthesiology, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, and Chairperson of the Clinical Managerial Group JPNAT COVID designated Centre, AIIMS.


Also read: Kerala sero survey finds 10.76% people with Covid antibodies, police personnel top the list


Lesser burden, decrease in severity

Doctors from Delhi, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh have said there has been a steady increase in the number of admissions, but hospitals are no longer seeing a deluge of patients.

“As far as Delhi is concerned, the number has gone up. Our admissions in the ICU has gone up at AIIMS by about 40%. However, generally, we’ve seen that the patients who used to be admitted in the ward are not coming to us. Now only the sick patients are coming to us,” Trikha said.

“I’m very sure that now most of the physicians in the city and around in NCR are confident in treating these patients at their own clinics or hospitals, which was not the case in the month of March, April, May, June and earlier on.”

He, however, pointed out that symptoms haven’t differed vastly in cases with comorbidities.

Dr B.L. Sherwal, medical director at Delhi’s Rajiv Gandhi Super Specialty Hospital, a Covid facility designated to handle moderate cases, said there has been a 25 per cent increase in the number of patients in the last few days.

“That is a threat…[but] CFR is low. The number of severe patients seems to be less in comparison to November, December, but we need to see till maybe next week if this is a trend,” he said.

Dr Vaishali Waindeskar, head of the Department of Anaesthesia at AIIMS Bhopal, told ThePrint: “The CFR has been low during this time and the severity of symptoms is comparatively low…The number of patients with oxygen requirements is not high.”

She, however, said there were 212 deaths Monday across India and stressed that Covid-appropriate behaviour was important to manage the second wave.

ThePrint asked Dr Rakesh Mishra, director of the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology, whether a change in the virus could have also led to the declining mortality.

He said, “I don’t know if there’s any change in the virus that has led to less mortality but it is true that over a period of time more variants may become less virulent, but that needs to be established still…but I would think that the major cause would be the better care of the patients.”


Also read: 88% Covid deaths in 45+ age group, govt says day after decision to open up vaccination


Better Covid management

The doctors said better handling of Covid cases is likely to be the reason behind the decrease in CFR.

Dr Rakesh Joshi, Additional Medical Superintendent, Civil Hospital in Gujarat’s Ahmedabad also remarked that most mild patients now quarantine themselves because of increased awareness about the virus.

“The admission rate was 200-300 patients a day because of that (during) peak time, but over a period, everyone came to know about the pathophysiology, how the virus affects the body and how it gets cleared from the body…If we consider why the mortality is less, it is because the people are more aware of the virus,” he said.

“People report in time and get treated in time, the cases are slowly increasing…But they are manageable, there is no sudden flow, like around Diwali when there was a sudden peak when there were 1,700-1,800 patients.”

Important to note here is the fact that the admission guidelines have also changed over time. In the initial months of the pandemic, all Covid patients were being admitted to hospitals.

“People and doctors are now not afraid of the disease, there was a time when our doctors and nurses were told by their landlords to leave their houses. But now that fear is gone. And once the fear is gone, they (cases) are picked up early and treatment is started,” said Trikha.

While home quarantining is keeping admission figures low, doctors also said they now have a better understanding of therapies to prescribe in Covid cases.

Hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug that was initially suggested as a treatment for mild to moderate cases, is no longer given to Covid patients because of its side-effects and lack of evidence that it actually works against Covid. The use of plasma therapy also seems to be limited now.

“Six months into the pandemic, we reasonably knew what works — oxygen, remdesivir, plasma, blood thinners, steroids and tocilizumab and antibiotics and supportive care,” said Trikha.

Waindeskar also said the common therapies for symptomatic patients included antibiotics, steroids, anticoagulants, vitamin C, vitamin D and remdesivir.

According to Joshi, the use of remdesivir, an antiviral drug, has increased since the first wave. “It is safe and more effective during the early stage of the disease.”


Also read: Sunday’s figure of 43,846 new Covid cases is the biggest daily jump since 26 November


Subscribe to our channels on YouTube, Telegram & WhatsApp

Support Our Journalism

India needs fair, non-hyphenated and questioning journalism, packed with on-ground reporting. ThePrint – with exceptional reporters, columnists and editors – is doing just that.

Sustaining this needs support from wonderful readers like you.

Whether you live in India or overseas, you can take a paid subscription by clicking here.

Support Our Journalism

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

Most Popular