India’s R value unchanged from last week’s 1.30 but rising cases could soon push it up

India's R very likely to increase by next week if pandemic situation remains same, says expert tracing country's effective Covid reproduction number. UP currently has highest R value.

Ambulances, carrying bodies of those who died of COVID-19, stand parked outside a crematorium, in Ranchi on 11 April, 2021 | PTI

New Delhi: India’s effective reproduction number (R) for Covid-19, has remained at 1.30 — the same as last week — even as the situation in states has worsened across the country.

The R value, which indicates how fast the infection is spreading, should be under 1 for an epidemic to come to an end.

According to the Sitabhra Sinha, researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai who has been tracking India’s R value through the pandemic, the country’s overall R is very likely going to increase by next week if the Covid situation remains the same.

At 1.83, Uttar Pradesh currently has the highest R value, which increased from 1.62 last week.

“This is almost the same as what it was in late March-early April last year, that is, at the very beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in India,” Sinha told ThePrint.

UP is followed by Jharkhand, which has the R of 1.76. Last week, the state’s R value was 1.32.

West Bengal, where elections are currently under way, R rose to 1.66 this week from 1.35 last week. Telangana also saw almost a similar rise, to 1.66 from 1.37 last week.

Chhattisgarh’s R value is 1.57 this week — same as last week.

Delhi and Rajasthan both have R at 1.48 this week. Last week, Delhi’s R was 1.47, while Rajasthan’s infection rate was 1.46.

Gujarat is another state that has seen a spike in its R — to 1.34 this week from 1.17 last week.

Tamil Nadu’s R remains the same as last week at 1.37. Karnataka’s R is also 1.37, a slight increase over last week’s 1.36.

Maharashtra’s R increased to 1.24 from last week’s 1.18, while Kerala saw its R value rise to 1.2 this week from 1.1 last week.

State’s where R has reduced

In Punjab, the infection rate has reduced to 1.04 this week from 1.12. Madhya Pradesh also saw a drop in its R — to 1.32 from 1.39 last week.

In Andhra Pradesh, R dropped to 1.45 from 1.61.

Haryana’s R this week is 1.34, a slight decrease from 1.35 last week.

Situation in major cities

Kolkata currently has the highest R of 1.52, increased from 1.36 last week. This is followed by Bengaluru, which has an R of 1.41.

Chennai saw a small drop in its R to 1.37 from 1.38 last week. Meanwhile, the R rose to 1.37 this week from 1.28 last week in Mumbai.

Pune’s R reduced to 1.25 this week from 1.29.