Karnataka police personnel are tested for Covid-19 at a station in Bengaluru | Representational image | ANI
Karnataka police personnel are tested for Covid-19 at a station in Bengaluru | Representational image | ANI
Text Size:

New Delhi: India’s effective reproduction number ‘R’ for Covid-19 — a key parameter to measure the rate of infection — has decreased again to 1.11 after it had increased for the first time in three months last week.

The R value went up to 1.19 on 7 July from 1.11 around 26 June, just a week since ‘Unlock 2’ kicked in. The last time India saw its R value go up was around 6 April, when it had climbed to 1.83 from 1.7.

According to Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, the R for Covid-19 in India has gone back down to 1.11 this week.

At this rate, India is likely to cross four lakh active coronavirus cases by 29 July.

An epidemic is arrested when the R value consistently remains below 1. However, without continued precautions, it can increase again.

“From about 10 June onwards, the R has been steady at around 1.11. But for about 4-5 days last week it went up to 1.19 and after that it just came back to 1.11 again,” Sinha told ThePrint.


Also read: Fatigue and shortness of breath persist in recovered Covid patients, study finds

We are deeply grateful to our readers & viewers for their time, trust and subscriptions.

Quality journalism is expensive and needs readers to pay for it. Your support will define our work and ThePrint’s future.

SUBSCRIBE NOW


What is effective reproduction number or ‘R’ value?

R and R0 (basic reproduction number) are an estimate of the number of people one patient can infect.

R0 is calculated at the beginning of the epidemic when the entire population is assumed to be susceptible to the disease. The ‘R’ changes with time, and takes into account that some individuals are protected from the disease — either because they have developed immunity or because of social distancing and other measures.

For India, R0 was calculated to be about 1.83 in April.

‘R’ is a product of three factors — the probability of infection when a susceptible person comes in contact with an infected individual, the average rate of contact between susceptible and infected individuals and the duration during which an individual spreads the infection.

It is calculated through mathematical epidemiological models that compute how fast the virus spreads through the population.

As of Monday, India has 3,01,609 active cases of coronavirus. Over 8.7 lakh people have been infected by the virus so far, of which 23,174 have died while 5,53,471 have recovered.


Also read: Residents-only policy, lack of donors, lengthy process — the struggles of Delhi’s plasma bank


 

Subscribe to our channels on YouTube & Telegram

News media is in a crisis & only you can fix it

You are reading this because you value good, intelligent and objective journalism. We thank you for your time and your trust.

You also know that the news media is facing an unprecedented crisis. It is likely that you are also hearing of the brutal layoffs and pay-cuts hitting the industry. There are many reasons why the media’s economics is broken. But a big one is that good people are not yet paying enough for good journalism.

We have a newsroom filled with talented young reporters. We also have the country’s most robust editing and fact-checking team, finest news photographers and video professionals. We are building India’s most ambitious and energetic news platform. And we aren’t even three yet.

At ThePrint, we invest in quality journalists. We pay them fairly and on time even in this difficult period. As you may have noticed, we do not flinch from spending whatever it takes to make sure our reporters reach where the story is. Our stellar coronavirus coverage is a good example. You can check some of it here.

This comes with a sizable cost. For us to continue bringing quality journalism, we need readers like you to pay for it. Because the advertising market is broken too.

If you think we deserve your support, do join us in this endeavour to strengthen fair, free, courageous, and questioning journalism, please click on the link below. Your support will define our journalism, and ThePrint’s future. It will take just a few seconds of your time.

Support Our Journalism

Share Your Views

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here