New Delhi: India’s effective reproduction number (R) for Covid has once again fallen below 1 this week, decreasing to 0.98 from last week’s 1.11.
For the last two weeks, R in India increased to over 1, driving up the number of active cases.
R indicates the average number of people likely to be infected from a single Covid positive person, and is a measure of how fast the infection is spreading.
R should remain below one for the epidemic to come to an end.
At the end of last month, India’s R value increased to 1.17, the highest value before India’s devastating second wave in April.
The rise was driven up by the active cases numbers in Kerala and Maharashtra, along with a number of states in the Northeast.
Now, R in most states has come down, in turn driving down India’s R value.
“The situation has only marginally improved from last week, but we are not yet out of the danger zone. Technically, R value for India has gotten below 1 but it’s still pretty close to 1 and may go up again anytime if the recent past is any guide,” Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at Institute of Mathematical Sciences, told ThePrint. Sinha has been tracking the R value since the beginning of the pandemic.
How states are faring
In Kerala, R has fallen to 0.97 this week from 1.21 last week. Maharashtra’s R has fallen to 1 from 1.06 around 31 August.
“Most other states either have R at 1 or just below it,” Sinha said.
Mizoram, where R was as high as 1.28 last week, is now at 1.01.
Andhra Pradesh saw a marginal dip to 1.01 from 1.04 last week.
However, the value seems to be slowly creeping up in several states, even though they have R values below one. For example, the R for West Bengal was at 0.92 at the end of July, which increased to 0.96 through August. After a month of remaining steady at 0.96, this week the value rose to 0.99.
Over the last three weeks, Odisha’s R has been slowly increasing. Around 26 August, the state’s R was at 0.82, which increased to 0.88 on 31 August. Last week the value increased further to 0.97, and this week it stands at 0.98.
In Tamil Nadu, R is now 1, having gone up from 0.94 last week. In Telangana, R steadily increased every week since 18 August, when it was at 0.85. Now it stands at 0.99.
Karnataka’s R too stands at 0.99, having increased from 0.92 last week.
Major cities
For Delhi, R reduced to 0.98 this week from 1.05 last week. Bengaluru’s R too dropped to 0.98 from 1.01.
Similarly, Kolkata saw its R decrease to 1 this week from 1.11. Pune’s R decreased to 0.94 from 1.03.
In Chennai, R increased to 0.91 from 0.99, while in Mumbai it went up marginally to 1.03 from 1.02.
(Edited by Manasa Mohan)