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India’s Covid R value dips to 0.92, but infection rate above 1 in Maharashtra, Punjab, Gujarat

Rajasthan, Karnataka, UP, Chhattisgarh, Haryana and MP had R values over 1 last week. This week, R reduced to under 1 in all of these states.

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New Delhi: India’s effective reproductive number (R), which is a measure of how fast an infection spreads, has dropped to 0.92 — a week after it increased beyond 1.

R value represents the number of people one patient can infect. A value below 1 means the number of active cases are declining.

“The value that we saw last week was greater than 1 and was fortunately not a sustained trend,” Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, told ThePrint.

“Unfortunately, the R for Maharashtra is more than 1 even now,” Sinha added.

The state, in fact, saw an increase in its R value from 1.06 last week to 1.08.

Maharashtra has recorded the highest number of active cases in the country and an R above 1 in the state is concerning since it indicates a rapid increase in Covid cases.

Gujarat and Punjab also have R above 1. Gujarat’s R value went down from 1.10 to 1.08 this week.

Meanwhile, Punjab’s R has been 1.12 since 1 November, which led to active cases rapidly increasing in the state.

Also read: India tests over 10 lakh samples in 24 hrs, but positivity rate & daily cases rise

Delhi, Kerala, Tamil Nadu’s R less than 1

“However, overall the news is more good than bad,” Sinha pointed out.

Among the top states in terms of active cases, Kerala, Delhi, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Telangana continue to have R less than 1.

The R value for Kerala is currently 0.91, which reduced from 0.94 last week. Delhi, too, saw a decrease in its R value from 0.89 last week to 0.78 this week.

However, in Tamil Nadu, the R value increased from 0.81 last week to 0.98 this week. Similarly, West Bengal’s R value increased from 0.96 to 0.98.

Telangana’s R value increased slightly from 0.83 to 0.84 this week.

Rajasthan, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh all had R values over 1 last week. This week, all of these states have reduced their R to under 1, Sinha said.

Rajasthan’s R value was 1.22 last week and the state’s high R had driven its active case load to the top five in the country. This week, however, the value reduced to 0.95.

Karnataka’s R value was close to 1 last week, but has reduced to 0.95 this week. Similarly, Uttar Pradesh, which reported an R value of 1.08 last week, reduced it to 0.91 this week.

Chhattisgarh’s R decreased from 1.18 to 0.85, while in Haryana the value reduced from 1.04 to 0.84.

Madhya Pradesh reported an R value of 1.28 last week, but the value has now reduced to 0.94.

Himachal Pradesh recently entered the list of top states with active cases, and the R value in the state had remained over 1 since 31 October. Last week, the state’s R value was 1.21 but it has now reduced to 0.92.

R value above 1 in Mumbai, Pune

Mumbai and Pune both have R values above 1. While Mumbai’s R was 1.12 last week, the value increased to 1.14 this week. Pune’s R value was 1.08 last week, which has now reduced to 1.04.

Chennai saw a decrease in its R value from 0.92 last week to 0.90 this week. Meanwhile, Kolkata’s R value also reduced from 0.98 last week to 0.92 this week.

Bengaluru’s R value was 1.02 last week, which has now reduced to 0.95.

Also read: ‘It was worth taking the risk’ — Why Covid vaccine volunteers signed up for trials


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