The US position on the Israel-Arab conflict has never been much of a mystery. Despite its obviously pro-Israel stand, the US has so far tried to adhere to international law and the worldwide consensus at least in theory. With his plans to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Trump is all set to change that, and in doing so, unleashing consequences that he may not have control on.
The revenge that MBS needs to take on Tehran
The best revenge that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia exact with regards to Tehran is to stop working each other into a lather over the Iranian “threat”, and focus on their domestic reform agendas instead, writes Thomas Friedman in The New York Times.
“This is generating a lot of anxiety in the Arab world, the U.S. and Israel without enough people stepping back and thinking: So pro-Iranian militias control a bunch of bad neighborhoods in Beirut, Sana, Damascus and Baghdad. Tell me, what is second prize? What are they really ‘winning’?
“Iran has a richly talented population, and rich Persian culture. But instead of unleashing both and enabling Iran’s youth to realise their full potential — and making the country influential that way — the ayatollahs are suppressing those talents at home and unleashing the power of Shiite mercenaries on Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and compelling influence that way instead.”
“My view on Saudi Arabia today is very simple: Because it has so much deferred reform to undertake — before its oil money runs out — the biggest question is not if M.B.S. is too brash, too brutal, too power-hungry or too imperfect. It’s whether he’s too late — that Saudi Arabia is now un-reformable. I think not, but that is why, with all of M.B.S.’s flaws, we need to help increase his chances for success. If he can turn Jiddah into another Dubai, where so many Iranians now love to vacation and bank, he will do more to increase his influence in the region and diminish Iran’s than anything else he could do,” he writes.
Trump’s ultimate disaster in the Middle East
There are no serious talks underway on whether be the capital of the Israelis alone or shared with the Palestinians. Yet, Trump is ready with his plans to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Really, why would he do that?
His decision would “almost certainly will make an agreement harder to reach by inflaming doubts about America’s honesty and fairness as a broker in negotiations, raising new tension in the region and perhaps inciting violence,” editorialises the New York Times.
“Mr. Trump boasts of being a consummate dealmaker, but dealmakers don’t usually make concessions before negotiations begin, as the president has here. The big winner is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, whose hard-line government has shown no serious interest in peace, at least not a two-state solution that could win Palestinian support.”
“Some optimists think that Mr. Trump could lessen the harm of a decision on Jerusalem by making clear he will not prejudge the future of East Jerusalem or other core questions like the borders of a Palestinian state. His track record so far gives little evidence that he has the temperament or skill to navigate such a nuanced position,” it concludes.
Making his happy base happier
Jerusalem is not only a Palestinian issue, but also an Arab and Islamic one, and therefore, any action Trump may take on it will have consequences across the Arab world and beyond. But in the absence of nuance, he is likely to achieve nothing, writes Daoud Kuttab in Al Jazeera.
“In the past, the US Congress, which has often been called “Israeli occupied territory”, passed several laws in favour of Israel that infringe on the executive branch’sconstitutional authority over foreign policy. But consecutive presidents have consistently opposed these laws and claimed presidential waivers to postpone their implementation.”
“But things have changed in the last six months,” he writes.
Like always, there’s good chance that Trump doesn’t actually follow through. Yet, “Even this half measure is full of problems. If he calls ‘united Jerusalem’ the capital of Israel, he will for sure completely alienate Palestinians and will be throwing his own son-in-law’s efforts to bring calm to the region under the bus. On the other hand, if he calls West Jerusalem Israel’s capital, he will infuriate the Israelis and thus not gain much by it.
“The puzzle remains then: What will Trump ultimately gain from this move, other than pleasing his already happy base? Not much.”
A catastrophe in the world’s beloved city
Trump’s actions could derail the last hope of peace, according to the Palestinian Authority, and diminish the already waning US influence in the world, as countries including Turkey have warned. But these may not seem like persuasive arguments, writes Nicholas Blincoe in The Guardian.
“The US has willingly surrendered much of its standing; there is no peace process; and the reputation of both Turkey and the Palestinian Authority is low. But recognising Israel’s current version of Jerusalem would create enormous and new insoluble problems without addressing the real issues that beset the city.”
“We live in a climate where international law is under threat. Human rights are attacked as a UN-sponsored industry that enriches the corrupt and lazy, while tying the hands of dynamic wealth creators. Serial attempts to degrade the international order have made Israeli politicians the darlings of the political right, and won over businessmen who despise legal restraints.
Trump is a creature of the right and a friend of toxic financiers. One can see why he would argue for appeasement, and legitimise Israel’s acquisitions. But it would be a sordid retreat into chaos and murder that would fuel the political and moral catastrophe in a city beloved by the world.”