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India’s statistics panel should be free, have legal backing: Ex-chief who quit in protest

Former National Statistical Commission chief P.C. Mohanan says the body should be given statutory powers so that people listen to it.

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New Delhi: India needs an independent statistical commission with statutory powers and the resources to analyse macroeconomic data on its own, P.C. Mohanan, former chairman of the National Statistical Commission (NSC), told ThePrint in an interview.

“The commission needs more independence. But you can always exercise independence or you can surrender it. It requires statutory powers as well so that people listen to you,” he said.

The comments by the former NSC chairman — who quit in January to protest against the government’s decision to withhold National Sample Survey office (NSSO) jobs data — come at a time when fresh concerns have emerged over the sanctity of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) data.

The GDP data released by the Modi government in November was based on a new back-series which relied heavily on the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) database to account for the organised and unorganised sector. On Wednesday, business daily Mint reported that the NSSO in one of its recent surveys on the services sector found the database to have many loopholes, including incorrect classification of firms and non-existent firms.

On the latest NSSO findings, Mohanan said it’s not surprising. He hoped that the Central Statistics Office (CSO) had accounted for it while using it in the GDP calculations.

The CSO is a government agency that coordinates all statistical activity. The NSC is an autonomous body that coordinates all core statistics data. It has the final say on all NSSO surveys. Both CSO and NSSO work under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

“It is not surprising because whenever you use some government data, you expect certain inconsistencies. But it raises some questions about future NSSO surveys. Manufacturing is covered by the annual survey of industries and this survey would have covered services. But there will be some problem for NSSO to use this database for future series,” he said.

However, the government issued a statement to assuage concerns about the unreliability of the GDP data using the MCA 21 database, which lists all the registered companies.

“It is emphasised that there is no impact on the existing GDP/GVA estimates for the corporate sector as due care is taken to appropriately adjust the corporate filings at the aggregate level based on the paid up capital,” said the government.


Also read: New GDP series, which showed Modi govt growth higher than UPA, based on flawed data: NSSO


‘No power’

Speaking to ThePrint, Mohanan pointed out that the National Statistical Commission should have autonomy, independence and statutory powers as well the resources to ensure that its powers are adequately used.

The NSC was envisaged as the empowered body for all core statistical activities — on the suggestion of a committee headed by former Reserve Bank of India governor C. Rangarajan — but never got any statutory powers to give it teeth.

During his stint at NSC, Mohanan said the commission had “no power” and felt “ill-equipped to look into data procedures and sources”. Ideally, it should oversee all important macreconomic data handled by different ministries, he said.

Mohanan added that the commission should have its own strong secretariat to “independently” look at data using latest data analytics technology, separate from the way the ministry and the government looks at data.

He added that transparency by the government is the need of the hour.

“Many economists felt that the back-series raised certain questions that were not sufficiently answered by CSO. All this could have been answered by a little more transparency and explanation about the internal process of computing of these numbers,” he said.

“It’s important to maintain the integrity of the statistical system so that the reliability of the data is not questioned.”

Macroeconomic data

Mohanan pointed out that the question on the sanctity of the macroeconomic data has just come after the latest revision to GDP using a new series, but added that questioning the reliability is not required.

“We have been producing macroeconomic data since 1950. There are data limitations and they are well explained… A few questions came up after the last revision using the 2011-12 base,” he said.

“Before that, there were questions on the data adequacy etc but nothing serious about the credibility and reliability of data. At this stage also, I think there is no question on the reliability.”


Also read: Modi Govt sees Rs 1.6 lakh cr tax shortfall, deficit 3.9% of GDP leaving fiscal hole


 

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2 COMMENTS

  1. Statutory powers. Constitutional status. Appointment by a bipartisan Committee. Elaborate safeguards against summary dismissal. Papier-mâche when put to the ultimate test. That is what Mrs Gandhi discovered forty years ago. Less has changed since then most Indians would have hoped for. There must be innate respect in the repositories of power for these thoughtfully worked out checks and balances.

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