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Indian economy will struggle even after Covid, grow at 4.5% until 2025 – Oxford Economics

India's balance sheet stress that had been building before the coronavirus outbreak will probably worsen and impact growth, Oxford Economics report says.

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Mumbai: India will be worst-affected among the world’s major economies even after the pandemic wanes, with output 12% below pre-virus levels through the middle of the decade, according to Oxford Economics.

Balance sheet stress that had been building before the coronavirus outbreak will probably worsen, Priyanka Kishore, head of economics for South Asia and South-East Asia, wrote in the report. She projects potential growth for India at 4.5% over the next five years, lower than 6.5% before the virus.

“It’s likely that headwinds already hampering growth prior to 2020 — such as stressed corporate balance sheets, elevated non-performing assets of banks, the fallout in non-bank financial companies, and labor market weakness -– will worsen,” she said. “The resulting long-term scars, probably among the worst globally, would push India’s trend growth substantially lower from pre-Covid levels.”

The contraction hasn’t deterred Prime Minister Narendra Modi from reiterating his target of making India a $5 trillion economy by 2025 from $2.8 trillion. While the government has announced a slew of measures to support growth, they have fallen well short of expectations to boost demand, leaving the central bank to do much of the heavy-lifting. A paper published by the Reserve Bank of India last week predicted Asia’s third-largest economy has entered a historic technical recession. Official data is due Nov. 27.

The International Monetary Fund predicts GDP will shrink 10.3% in the year to March 2021 as Modi’s sudden lockdown paralyzed activity. While a sharp rebound is forecast as economic activity resumes, there are lingering scars.

HSBC Holdings Plc said India’s potential growth could drop to 5% in the post-pandemic world from 6% on the eve of the outbreak and more than 7% before the global financial crisis.

“All supply-side factors feel the effect, with only human capital’s contribution unchanged from the pre-virus baseline,” Kishore said. “Capital accumulation takes the biggest hit because we expect balance-sheet stresses to worsen following the crisis, lengthening the investment recovery cycle.”- Bloomberg

Also read: India’s economic recovery will be hit if banks aren’t recapitalised, former RBI chiefs warn


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  1. Still Hindus will say it is global situation, you cannot blame Modi for incompetence !

    But there is a silver lining. In the Modi years, the nouveau riche Hindus had become boastful and cocky due to their recent wealth – ironically created by MMS.

    With the economy gone, and the youth population growing, the Hindus will have empty pockets and feel the pinch….That is probably the best for the minorities. A little bit of money and power goes to the Hindu head, and then they start bullying. Of course, there is the danger that with no jobs, Hindus will be recruited for destructive programmes like Kapil Mishra’s Hindu Ecosystem. Hindu youth will turn to lynching and rape.

  2. We don’t need prediction report. We need solutions to boost economy. Do you have any solution then share with the government either you should stop your nonsense.

    • No solution needed, because there is no problem. Why do you need to boost the economy ?

      According to BJP Hindus, Modi has brought India to the forefront, demonetisation ended corruption, bullet train is coming, black money is being brought back, Make in India was launched, Patel statue is bringing lakhs of tourists, Yogi said UP is a hub for religious tourism and this will increase with Rama temple, and CAA-NRC was launched against Muslims.

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