Mumbai: The Indian rupee may edge towards record lows but will get some support from a less hawkish-than-expected tone in minutes of the central bank’s latest policy meeting, while government bond yields are expected to rise, analysts said.
The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee (MPC) may become more data-dependant in deciding on the key interest rate with inflation expected to start easing, minutes of the latest meeting suggested on Friday.
“We could see a narrow trading range of 7.40%-7.50% on the 10-year bond next week as we do not have any major scheduled events,” a trader with a private bank said.
The benchmark Indian government bond yield ended at 7.4696% on Friday, 5 basis points (bps) above its previous close. The yield rose 1 basis point on the week, after adding an aggregate 29 bps over the last four weeks.
Market participants, however, do not expect the benchmark bond yield to break 7.50% in a major way.
Traders said with MPC members divided on the future trajectory on rate hikes, there was some relief buying expected.
India’s annual retail inflation accelerated to a five-month high of 7.41% in September, its ninth straight reading above the RBI’s target band of 2-6% but wholesale price inflation fell to an 18-month low, separate data last week showed.
The fall in wholesale prices has raised expectations of less aggressive monetary tightening going ahead.
The rupee is likely to track movements in the dollar and crude oil prices next week. It is expected to hover around record lows but traders will watch out for dollar selling intervention from the central bank.
The local unit hit a life low of 82.6825 at the start of last week, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to step in with dollar sales.
The RBI intervened heavily on Monday and Tuesday, traders said, and there was likely some sporadic intervention on other days.
“Markets are expected to remain jittery. Any dip in spot USD/INR should be bought with rupee likely to move to 83 to 83.50,” said Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex Advisors.- Reuters